Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[dankrutka]

Herd immunity doesn't work if the disease can infect people once they have had it once.

While herd immunity isn't—and shouldn't—happen without a vaccine, we need to quit spreading the idea people will/can get reinfected. While it may defer depending on severity and there's still more to learn, most experts do believe you gain immunity after having COVID-19.

[d-usa]

I noticed that some test sites have weird hours and days. Walmart, as an example, seems to have testing only Mon/Wed/Fri. If enough places have little quirks like that, it can make daily numbers seem wonky. More so once that is combined with the different delays in processing from different labs. Labs also process different samples at different priorities, so samples from hospitalized patients get processed earlier than asymptomatic people getting tested for exposures. This means that people more likely to be positives get results earlier, which can drive up the percentage of positives, but if that really is one of the driving forces it would be worrying that there are enough people sick to drive the numbers that much.

The delays on test results are also significant once they hit 10 days or more, since many people might already be past the illness and the ability to spread the virus by then.

One encouraging thing I’ve seen at my institution, which has also just been updated in CDC guidance, is that people who continue to test positive for long times do not seem to be infectious to anybody after the initial 14 days.

[d-usa]

While herd immunity isn't—and shouldn't—happening without a vaccine, we need to quit spreading the idea people will/can get reinfected. While it may defer depending on severity and there's still more to learn, most experts do believe you gain immunity after having COVID-19.

There have been cases of people being sick, getting better, and then being sick again and sometimes even more sick. Some test positive, then negative, then positive again later when they get sicker.

With intermittent shedding it isn’t that unusual to have late positive tests. I’ve personally seen people who were positive in April still (or again) being positive in July.

Without genetic analysis of samples at both points in time it is hard to determine if it is two separate infections. But the prevailing thought is that the “reinfection” is more likely to be a reactivation of the virus. We see that in many other viral diseases. And if that is the case, it makes the “just get it and get over with, most cases are mild” approach even more dangerous. Especially with the push to get kids back in school because they “only” get “mild” COVID-19.

[RustytheBailiff]

While herd immunity isn't—and shouldn't—happen without a vaccine, we need to quit spreading the idea people will/can get reinfected. While it may defer depending on severity and there's still more to learn, most experts do believe you gain immunity after having COVID-19.

https://www.advisory.com/daily-brief...id-reinfection

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html

Perhaps we should quit spreading the rumors that people cannot get reinfected -- it looks like the jury is still out. From the CDC is appears they are leaning towards short term immunity -- but not necessarily long-term. \


STAY SAFE WEAR MASKS

[TheTravellers]

Weather might be a part but this has been pretty consistent since March. This morning I feel absolutely normal. Hopefully this is a trend.

Allergies could be it, too. Wife and I have had some bad sniffling, sneezing, snot, sometimes get hot, etc. Our cat actually shows signs when our allergies are bad - she'll start being itchy, scratching and cleaning herself way more than normal and when we get better, she stops too, kinda weird.

[TheTravellers]

What a morning so far. I go to Homeland. Everyone wearing masks properly. YAY!!! No one pays any attention to one way aisles but I can work around that. Then I go outside and put the stuff in the trunk. Along with my keys and the cards which I have been doing to sanitize them before I open the car door. Then I shut the trunk. Keys inside. I can’t go back in the store because my mask is also in the trunk. So here I am in a pandemic asking this nice older (my age) guy if he’ll call my wife to come let me in the car. It all worked out and it won’t happen again!

Ouch, man, I feel for ya, I did that once, but I had AAA at the time, so they came out and unlocked the door so I could pop the trunk. Not sure if your Homeland does it, but the 18th/Classen one had a sign at the door to ask their greeter for a mask if you didn't have one. Hopefully that won't happen again, but for future reference....

[OKCRT]

There have been cases of people being sick, getting better, and then being sick again and sometimes even more sick. Some test positive, then negative, then positive again later when they get sicker.

With intermittent shedding it isn’t that unusual to have late positive tests. I’ve personally seen people who were positive in April still (or again) being positive in July.

Without genetic analysis of samples at both points in time it is hard to determine if it is two separate infections. But the prevailing thought is that the “reinfection” is more likely to be a reactivation of the virus. We see that in many other viral diseases. And if that is the case, it makes the “just get it and get over with, most cases are mild” approach even more dangerous. Especially with the push to get kids back in school because they “only” get “mild” COVID-19.

If that turns out to be the norm then we are all pretty much screwed. That to me sounds like it's mutating and people can get it over and over as it changes. Almost sounds like one of the virus movies where terrorists make a deadly virus and release it upon the population.

[DowntownMan]

Blue zoo at quail has no social distancing happening to get into this place. Just tried walking into the mall to be greeted by their line of over 100 people standing neck to neck waiting to get in.

Unfortunately you have to walk thru their crowd of people to come in that entrance to the mall

[PoliSciGuy]

Let's throttle back a bit here. If reinfection can happen, it's blessedly rare. If it was widespread, we'd be seeing a significant uptick in places that were already hit hard (NYC, Italy, etc.), but we don't see that. What reinfections we do see are rare or are later confirmed to just be remnants of the virus from an earlier infection.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...navirus-twice/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/h...-immunity.html

What mutations we've seen from the virus are relatively benign and this is a remarkably stable virus. There is no sign that our vaccine work will be derailed by a mutation at this stage. In nature, when viruses do mutate they usually lose their potency through an effect known as Mueller's Ratchet

https://biodesign.asu.edu/news/meltd...utionary-cliff

[dankrutka]

My point in my last post is not that people can’t be reinfected—the science is out—but that we should be careful in making it seem like reinfection will be normal or typical.

Here’s a good explanation on why herd immunity is largely unachievable: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...er-be-achieved

[Bill Robertson]

If that turns out to be the norm then we are all pretty much screwed. That to me sounds like it's mutating and people can get it over and over as it changes. Almost sounds like one of the virus movies where terrorists make a deadly virus and release it upon the population.

I’ve searched and only find a very few articles on people “getting it a second time”. And almost all of them bring up the possibility that it was the same infection that reactivated somehow. That’s out of millions of confirmed cases worldwide. As much as the media seems to love negative and sensational stories I would think they’d jump all over people getting COVID a truly second time if it were happening in any documented, confirmed way.

[Jeepnokc]

My Doctor and I were discussing this the other day at my check up. He said we won't get herd immunity because they are seeing that the antibodies are only staying in the system 3-4 weeks. After that...you can be reinfected.

[PoliSciGuy]

My Doctor and I were discussing this the other day at my check up. He said we won't get herd immunity because they are seeing that the antibodies are only staying in the system 3-4 weeks. After that...you can be reinfected.

Not remotely true. Numerous studies show that T-cell immunity is robust and lasts months, if not years. Tests done with people who survived SARS shows that people mounted a defense *more than 13 years later*. We are *supposed* to lose antibodies over time, otherwise our lymph nodes would be friggin gigantic.

Here's some peer reviewed and other articles that go into more detail about this:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2683413/

https://immunology.sciencemag.org/content/5/48/eabd2071

[C_M_25]

What are the odds that some of today’s cases belong to yesterday’s totals? Again, thats why a 7 day running average is useful...

[Bill Robertson]

My Doctor and I were discussing this the other day at my check up. He said we won't get herd immunity because they are seeing that the antibodies are only staying in the system 3-4 weeks. After that...you can be reinfected.

Mine have stayed high for four months. Yet another thing that can’t be taken as an absolute one way or the other.

[pw405]

What are the odds that some of today’s cases belong to yesterday’s totals? Again, thats why a 7 day running average is useful...

I suppose it could be possible that some of the cases reported today didn't make the cut for reporting time yesterday. Still, today's 965 is much closer to the 7 day average of 718 than yesterdays reported 314.

Here is a graph of the running 7 day average for cases and deaths as reported by State of OK since June 1st.

[C_M_25]

I suppose it could be possible that some of the cases reported today didn't make the cut for reporting time yesterday. Still, today's 965 is much closer to the 7 day average of 718 than yesterdays reported 314.

Here is a graph of the running 7 day average for cases and deaths as reported by State of OK since June 1st.

It does look like new cases are starting to plateau. There is definitely a slope change in there suggesting a decreasing rate of increase. Let’s hope masks improve it further.

[LocoAko]

+1204.

Highest ever (real) one-day increase, and a new high in the 7-day average (860).

[midtownokcer]

+1204.

Highest ever (real) one-day increase.

Welp, that explains Friday's low number. This isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

[LocoAko]

https://twitter.com/KOCODillon/statu...20281028595714

We knew the 7-day average would rise today almost no matter what because of reporting issues last Sunday. But this is not only a record increase overall, it's also a stunning increase for a Sunday.

The previous Sunday record was 478 on 6/21

[kukblue1]

1500 some time this week. We got this. 314 on Friday lol. Oklahoma's quickly becoming the new hotspot imagine that.

I think some of Friday's numbers have bleed into the last couple days though

[Dustin]

+1204.

Highest ever (real) one-day increase, and a new high in the 7-day average (860).

[C_M_25]

Guys, don’t panic on today’s numbers. When you think about the global trends of our covid numbers, Sunday has historically been on of the lowest days of the week for reported numbers. This data point is so out of the norm that it makes zero sense. You can say the same for the report a couple of days ago. It was so anomalously low, that we all discounted it.

If you take the totals from the past 3 days and average them, we’re looking at around 800 per day. That falls in line the the global trends that we are plateauing in our daily rates (hopefully).

My question is how did our reporting suddenly get so crappy??

[LocoAko]

I agree that it is anomalously high and counteracts the anomalously low report from Friday, but the 7-day average continues to rise. I guess we'll see this week if the slow down in increase is real or just some noise. Although really, plateauing at 800-900 and remaining there as we move toward re-opening schools is not really starting us off in any sort of acceptable place or what seems like an inevitable surge.

[C_M_25]

I agree that it is anomalously high and counteracts the anomalously low report from Friday, but the 7-day average continues to rise. I guess we'll see this week if the slow down in increase is real or just some noise. Although really, plateauing at 800-900 and remaining there as we move toward re-opening schools is not really starting us off in any sort of acceptable place or what seems like an inevitable surge.

I suggest that you look at our curve again. There has been a clear decrease in the rate of change. The curve is showing that we may soon peak on this deal if you use other analogous cities