Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[SoonerDave]

The delta in daily positives from summary-to-summary for yesterday to today is only 314 cases over some 9,700 tests. This disregards the dashboard numbers and goes only from the OSDH summaries from yesterday and today.

[kukblue1]

I don't want to be overly critical, but do other states have this degree of issues in simply reporting the new numbers? The headline banner says one thing, the dashboard total says another, and the daily increase number implies yet another. It's so frustrating to have conflicting, messed up data everywhere and makes this even harder to track and weakens the public's confidence in the official numbers.

Only 314 new cases. Am I the only one that's not starting to believe in these numbers

[PoliSciGuy]

Per Dillon Richards (https://twitter.com/KOCODillon/statu...04043440701442)

You will see that the dashboard on coronavirus.health.ok.gov says that 1,147 cases were added today. That is because the dashboard was adding backlogged cases already included in my total. The 7-day average would be at this level regardless of when you add those cases in

[Timshel]

Nm

[jdizzle]

Only 314 new cases. Am I the only one that's not starting to believe in these numbers

Good grief. Quit moving goalposts.

[jerrywall]

Good grief. Quit moving goalposts.

Chill, No one is moving the goalposts.

Its a rather unexpected number which doesn't match up to the trend. It could be just an anomaly and we had a really good day case count wise. But considering the problems with the reporting this week it's absolutely understandable to question if the actual numbers are accurate.

[gopokes88]

Handful of states are even worse

[Pete]

Good grief. Quit moving goalposts.

The irony...

Just 3 weeks ago you said this:

It is not AS concerning the case spikes, when you consider that deaths are not going up, hardly at all. I wonder what the hospitalizations look like today. If they are still relatively low, then I feel we need to stop freaking the heck out EVERY SINGLE DAY over case #s, and start focusing on the hospitalization #s increasing or decreasing.

Now that deaths and hospitalization are strongly trending up, you want to go back to talking about # of new cases just because it went down for one day after breaking record after record??

[SoonerDave]

Chill, No one is moving the goalposts.

Its a rather unexpected number which doesn't match up to the trend. It could be just an anomaly and we had a really good day case count wise. But considering the problems with the reporting this week it's absolutely understandable to question if the actual numbers are accurate.

I may be accused of being a Pollyanna, but I'm going to be optimistic, take the numbers at face value, and hope this is part of a good trend. If we truly have only 314 cases, and a similar number emerges tomorrow, that's hopeful.

[oklip955]

I follow the City of Edmond facebook page. A recent post by the city says that the council will look at and vote on a potential ordinance for face coverings in Edmond city limits at their meeting on Mon July 27, at 5:30pm. Interesting to see how this will go.

[rezman]

Why didn't you get the manager instead of just stepping away?

Good question. I really didn't think of doing that. I already had picked out what I wanted so my only thought was quickly grabbing what I came in for and getting out of there, which actually was part of my side step motion.

My wife told me of being sneezed on by an unmasked Walmart employee a couple days ago. I asked her the same question.

[jdizzle]

The irony...

Just 3 weeks ago you said this:



Now that deaths and hospitalization are strongly trending up, you want to go back to talking about # of new cases just because it went down for one day after breaking record after record??

3 weeks is a long time. I am not making daily complaints about the case #s like the poster I was referencing. Things have changed, so yes, the hospitals filling up is concerning. But when you live and die by the reported #s, then when one is reported that doesn't fit your perception, you say you no longer believe them, just seems like moving them, to me.

But yes, in 3 weeks, the # of hospitalizations has started to truly alarm me. And I hope that the mask mandates enacted recently will help bring that down as we move forward. Hopefully Stitt enacts one statewide.

[Pete]

Florida with 12,400 new cases today.

Almost 1,200 people died yesterday in the U.S.; same the day before. 70,000 new cases yesterday. These are DAILY numbers.

We've had 32 deaths in Oklahoma in just the last 4 days.

All this in the middle of summer when virus transmission should be seasonally almost non-existent.


There are absolutely no signs things are getting better and plenty that indicate the opposite; even plateauing at these crazy rates would represent a nightmare by any objective measure.

You don't have to run around scared out of your mind but it's absurd and irresponsible to try and minimize this situation in any way.

[Pete]

3 weeks is a long time. I am not making daily complaints about the case #s like the poster I was referencing.

The bigger question is: Why did you choose to post about this particular thing when you had clearly stated that deaths and hospitalizations were the real issue?

Now that they are both trending up your contribution is trying to play gotcha with a perceived 'alarmist'.

[BoulderSooner]

it would be interesting to see what the total deaths in the US were for the first half of 2020

[Pete]

Louisana and Arizona about to pass New York with most cases per capita.

Florida rising very fast.

[BDP]

it would be interesting to see what the total deaths in the US were for the first half of 2020

Not what you're asking, but here's some similar perspective:

Covid-19 "will end up as a Top 10 leading cause of death" in 2020, CDC statisticians tell CNN

In 2018, the latest year for which final data is available, the top 10 leading causes of death among all ages in the United States were:
Heart disease (655,381)
Cancer (599,274)
Unintentional injury (167,127)
Chronic lower respiratory disease (159,486)
Stroke (147,810)
Alzheimer's disease (122,019)
Diabetes (84,946)
Flu and pneumonia (59,120)
Nephritis (51,386)
Suicide (48,344)

About 144k have died in the US due to COVID, so far.

[TheTravellers]

Good question. I really didn't think of doing that. I already had picked out what I wanted so my only thought was quickly grabbing what I came in for and getting out of there, which actually was part of my side step motion.

My wife told me of being sneezed on by an unmasked Walmart employee a couple days ago. I asked her the same question.

Gotcha, understandable, if I had all I needed, I'd probably just go, and try to tell the manager about it on my way out... We went to Homeland on 18th/Classen today, and luckily all the customers were masked. Didn't mean to jump on you, but I'm fed completely up with maskholes and will challenge them anytime I see them. If it's in a store, I'll call the manager over and ask them to ask the customer to mask up or leave, and if they don't, then I'll ask the manager to call the police since at that point, it's trespassing. Tired of all the absolute stupidity around this.

[Bill Robertson]

Gotcha, understandable, if I had all I needed, I'd probably just go, and try to tell the manager about it on my way out... We went to Homeland on 18th/Classen today, and luckily all the customers were masked. Didn't mean to jump on you, but I'm fed completely up with maskholes and will challenge them anytime I see them. If it's in a store, I'll call the manager over and ask them to ask the customer to mask up or leave, and if they don't, then I'll ask the manager to call the police since at that point, it's trespassing. Tired of all the absolute stupidity around this.

Where is that damn like button? Especially for the last sentence!

[PoliSciGuy]

Well now, looks like OKC got some attention in an unreleased federal document

The unpublished White House report obtained by us @publicintegrity provides recommendations for the 18 #CovidRedZone states, including Oklahoma. Problem areas identified include Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Miami. (via @kfor)

https://kfor.com/news/federal-report...yer-autoplay=0

Here's the KFOR story:

OKLAHOMA CITY (KFOR) — An unpublished document prepared for the White House coronavirus task force and obtained by the Center for Public Integrity, recommends that 18 states in the coronavirus “red zone” for cases should roll back reopening measures amid surging cases, including Oklahoma.

The “red zone” is defined in the 359-page report curated by the nonprofit newsroom as “those core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) and counties that during the last week reported both new cases above 100 per 100,000 population, and a diagnostic test positivity result above 10%.”

The report outlines measures counties in the red zone should take. It encourages residents to “wear a mask at all times outside the home and maintain physical distance.” And it recommends that public officials “close bars and gyms” and “limit social gatherings to 10 people or fewer,” which would mean rolling back reopening provisions in these places.

The report comes despite President Donald Trump’s insistence that states reopen and a push to send the nation’s children back to school, even as cases increase.

“Now we’re open, and we want to stay open and we will stay open. We’re not closing. We’ll put out the fires as they come out,” Trump said at a White House event earlier this month.

The following 18 states are in the red zone for cases: Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.

“There were a number of places in Oklahoma that were identified as problem areas,” Liz Essley Whyte, a reporter with the Center for Public Integrity, told News 4.

Those problem areas include Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Miami.

“The report that we released, there was no, you know, counting up of how many states were in the red zone. We did that ourselves to count them up. There was no comprehensive look at that,” Whyte said.

The report noted Oklahoma had 102 new cases per 100,000 population last week, which was a 47.7% change from the previous week.

The report made several recommendations for Oklahoma’s hot spot areas including a mask mandate, which already exists in Oklahoma City and Tulsa, closing bars and gyms in hot spot counties and limiting indoor dining to 25% capacity.

The report also said the following 11 states are in the red zone for test positivity: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Washington. The 11 states in the red zone for test positivity are also in the red zone for cases, with the exception of Washington state.

Whyte said all of the governors should have received the report. News 4 contacted Governor Stitt’s office.

Here’s what KFOR received in reply:

“The governor and Interim Commissioner of Health Lance Frye cited the White House report when rolling out Oklahoma’s COVID-19 alert system on July 9.
Our four-color alert system is based off of the White House methodology model for new cases per 100,000 population.
With OSDH’s alert system, we added an “orange” risk category that reflects the methodology that the White House has provided. A county is elevated to the “red risk” category if they meet one of four additional gates, as established by OSDH, that would indicate emerging challenges in the delivery of healthcare services. Those gates can by read here.
The governor will continue to monitor recommendations issued by the White House. In the meantime, the governor and OSDH are actively providing local communities with critical data so they can make informed decisions on the local level.”

[Timshel]

This is a couple weeks old, no?

(Not saying it isn't important, just didn't think this is new news....unless there's another previously unreleased document out there.)

[kukblue1]

All I'm saying is we have had over 500 cases for how many days out of the last 21 or so days. Then we only have 314 just like that? Something don't see right or all you anti maskers out there were really really really wrong.

[Pete]

WHO just reported a record number of cases globally for the last 24-hours: over 284,000.

The U.S. contributed fully 25% of those new cases while we only have 4% of the world's population.

[pw405]

Florida with 12,400 new cases today.
...
...

There are absolutely no signs things are getting better and plenty that indicate the opposite; even plateauing at these crazy rates would represent a nightmare by any objective measure.

You don't have to run around scared out of your mind but it's absurd and irresponsible to try and minimize this situation in any way.

About that plateau...

A few weeks back I shared an analysis I stumbled across from my stock market trading circles on Twitter:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1282480454663172096.html

One of the interesting takeaways was the lag between cases increasing & deaths increasing. At the start of the pandemic, we thought this lag time to be about 10 days. This analyst found that post-lockdown, this period was actually closer to 3.5 weeks when looking at the TX and FL data.

I whipped up a graph using OK's Rolling 7 day case counts and deaths counts from June 1st - July 24th.

Low and behold.... for the first 3 weeks of June, cases increased dramatically, yet average daily deaths went down, down, down. Given what we knew from the initial outbreak where we saw a 10 day lag, one wouldn't be too unreasonable to think: "The death rate is lower now". "There is a weaker strain, it's just easier to catch, and only young people are catching it". "The pandemic is behind us, I can't wait to have fun this summer."

But...right at 3.5 weeks, the 7-day average of deaths turns around and starts trending upwards, and continues to trend upward for an entire month.



Even if we assume we are at a plateau in new daily cases now (which I do not think we are) - based on the observed behavior of deaths over time - it is reasonable to assume that deaths would continue to trend upward for 3-4 weeks before reaching their plateau.

Perhaps even more concerning: if we assume the 3.5 week lag is correct - that means that the deaths we see today are from a time when 7-day avg. daily cases were around 370. Today, 7-day avg. daily cases are 711.

One can't help but to think: where will avg. daily deaths be in 3.5 weeks?

[Pete]

^

Interesting. Your are quite the data jockey.


And it illustrates the huge problem with the "let everyone get it" approach. By the time we figure out there are a ton new hospitlization and deaths, it will be far too late.