Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[TheTravellers]

... Pretty soon no other states will want us.

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes...

[Bill Robertson]

Bill, thank you so much for donating your plasma. It can be a long and tedious process, but your willingness will help to move the science forward.
From the bottom of my heart, thank you what you are giving us.

I don’t mind at all. Actually I was really glad it worked. After the Murrah building bombing they were begging for plasma donations and the machine just didn’t like me. The return cells just wouldn’t go back in. This time it worked fine. And I have the benefit of being the boss so the time is no problem.

[HangryHippo]

Pennsylvania is now suggesting people who have come to OK, KS, or DE quarantine for 14 days. More good press!

[kukblue1]

Atlanta just announced they're going back to phase 1 opening

[Pete]

Today's #'s; new cases per 1 million population.

We were #18 yesterday and #16 today.

Florida, Louisana, Arizona and now South Carolina and Arkansas surging.

Interesting that almost all the high percentages are in the South.

1 Florida 482
2 Louisiana 466
3 South Carolina 443
4 Arizona 417
5 Arkansas 352
6 Idaho 323
7 Nevada 302
8 Georgia 300
9 Alabama 293
10 Texas 289
11 Mississippi 268
12 North Carolina 221
13 Tennessee 214
14 California 199
15 Utah 197
16 Oklahoma 174
17 Wisconsin 159
18 Iowa 154
19 Missouri 145
20 Minnesota 143

[Bill Robertson]

We move up this ranking but are moving down in the Rt ranking. I’m losing failure in the Rt meaning anything.

[pw405]

The Slope of the Line




We saw total people in the hospital fall from 497 on April 1 to 124 on June 1 (the all time low). A reduction of 6.2/day over a 60 day period.

We saw total people in the hospital rise from 124 on June 1, to 499 on July 10. An increase of 9.4/day over a 40 day period.

The increasing trend of 9.4/day from June 1 to July 10 didn't really seem to fit the daily totals well because the first two weeks of June were relatively flat.

A better fit of a linear trend is the last 3 weeks, where we find that between June 18 and July 10, an increase of 13.1/day is observed.
(Note, I chose June 18 because going with June 19 would have increased the rate cacl. a bit much since it was a lower day).

I can't seem to get this question out of my mind: What does the other side of this trend look like? We can make some projections, assuming the rate of the last 3 weeks holds:

August 1st - 761 in hospital
September 1st - 1,167 in hospital
October 1st - 1,560 in hospital
November 1st - 1,966 in hospital

If we assume that a certain % of all positive cases end up in the hospital, and there is a lag of X>1 days between diagnosis & hospitalization, then we should NOT expect the trend of 13.1/day to continue. Logically, hospitalizations should increase to a higher rate, since we've been finding more cases, and the % of positive cases within the collection of specimens has trended upwards.

Using the case counts from the Weekly Epidemiological Survey, the 3 week total cases from June 5th to June 25th is 5,417 cases (258/day).

The one week total from July 3 to July 9 is 4,624 cases (660/day).

If we assume the average daily hospitalizations rises to 16/day, we can project the following:

August 1st - 819 in hospital
September 1st - 1,315 in hospital
October 1st - 1,795 in hospital
November 1st - 2,291 in hospital

Please note - all of these are simple linear projections & trends. I have extensive experience working with data, but not epidemiological data. There are many more causal factors that I simply have not modeled, and do not have the expertise or tools to model accurately. Take this information with a grain of salt.

*Created my own visualization with data downloaded from https://www.readfrontier.org/stories...ovid19oklahom/

[HangryHippo]

PW, this is fantastic stuff. Thanks for your work!

[jdizzle]

I wish there was a statistic for how long people in Oklahoma are STAYING in the hospital. That way
the state and hospitals can better prepare reserve beds.

I just mean solely for Covid-19.

[pw405]

PW, this is fantastic stuff. Thanks for your work!

Thanks! I wish I could find some data that is easier to work with. Right now, the only way is to go pull data out of the Daily/Weekly reports. I just want a spreadsheet with the following columns, by day:

Total Tests Given | Total Positive Tests | Total Distinct Positive Tests | Total Covid Patients in Hospital | Total Covid Patients in ICU | Total Deaths |Average day Lag between collection date & reported date.

If I had access to my BI Tools (Panopticon/Spotfire/PowerBI), I could really make some cool stuff!

[FighttheGoodFight]

By the measure of ~2k in the hospital by November then I guess Stitt won’t have to do anything. Didn’t he say we have 5k ICU beds?

[soonerguru]

I wish there was a statistic for how long people in Oklahoma are STAYING in the hospital. That way
the state and hospitals can better prepare reserve beds.

I just mean solely for Covid-19.

I spoke with a reporter last week and he said the problem in Oklahoma is not just that ICU beds are dwindling, it is that we are running out of people to staff ICUs. This state is on the precipice of disaster.

Meanwhile, our “leaders” do nothing. Literally, nothing besides some Tweets and worthless press conferences in which they minimize the scale of the disaster and hype red herring data sets.

[Pete]

456 new cases today, by far and away our biggest Sunday total.

1 additional death.

[Pete]

Florida had 15,299 (!!!) new cases today.

By far the most new cases there in one day.

Their positive test rate is now running 19% for the entire state, and trending sharply up.

[floyd the barber]

Florida had 15,299 (!!!) new cases today.

By far the most new cases there in one day.

Their positive test rate is now running 19% for the entire state, and trending sharply up.

Insane.

I guess we are going the herd immunity route.

[midtownokcer]

456 new cases today, by far and away our biggest Sunday total.

1 additional death.

I think we had 478 on Father's Day, which was on Sunday, 6/21.

[oklip955]

That still is a lot. Add up the total for the week. ouch. I hate to see what the numbers will be in another week or two. I said that two weeks ago.

[kukblue1]

456 new cases today, by far and away our biggest Sunday total.

1 additional death.

Over or Under 925 on Tuesday?. I'm going to take the Over How our leaders don't think this is out of control is unbelievable to me

[Bunty]

Over or Under 925 on Tuesday?. I'm going to take the Over How our leaders don't think this is out of control is unbelievable to me

It's not just the leaders. It's people in general not taking it seriously even though the media is regularly reporting how worse it's getting. Maybe we'd be surprised by the number of people who don't watch the news.

[Pete]

It's not just the leaders. It's people in general not taking it seriously even though the media is regularly reporting how worse it's getting. Maybe we'd be surprised by the number of people who don't watch the news.

Whether or not people are wearing masks has much more to do with WHAT 'news' they chose to consume more than anything else.

Everyone is getting 'news' somewhere.

[Ronnie Jackson]

It's not just the leaders. It's people in general not taking it seriously even though the media is regularly reporting how worse it's getting. Maybe we'd be surprised by the number of people who don't watch the news.

Important to remember that these people are not leaders.

They are Politicians. So they aren’t necessarily interested in doing the right thing. It is much more likely that they will do the popular thing.

Fortunately, the mask evidence has become rather overwhelming, such that popular opinion—even among Conservatives—has begun to change.

[d-usa]

I’m hoping that the widely shared pictures of a political figure wearing a mask will at least improve our mask numbers slightly.

[kukblue1]

It's not just the leaders. It's people in general not taking it seriously even though the media is regularly reporting how worse it's getting. Maybe we'd be surprised by the number of people who don't watch the news.

Good point. You can tell people mask help. You can prove mask work and there still be people not willing to wear a mask.

[RustytheBailiff]

Important to remember that these people are not leaders.

They are Politicians. So they aren’t necessarily interested in doing the right thing. It is much more likely that they will do the popular thing.

Fortunately, the mask evidence has become rather overwhelming, such that popular opinion—even among Conservatives—has begun to change.

Nothing fortunate about that, it's a shame our population is too stupid and disdainful of science, that we did little if anything to prepare for this. We watch China being engulfed by the virus, and did nothing, then we watched Europe become overtaken by the virus, and did nothing, then we watched England's epidemic and (I guess) we assumed we were somehow magically protected. Then came New York and the Northeast states, Washington and California all in March - did we do anything in Oklahoma to prepare? Not much. Now we are all surprised that we are in the midst of an uncontrollable pandemic. It could have been controlled very easily, but our half assed elected officials and our inbred macho image of ourself make us resistant to the simplest preventative measures, like wearing a mask. Yeah, we're fortunate all right....sigh


WEAR A MASK THE LIFE YOU SAVE MAY BE MINE.

[pw405]

I wish there was a statistic for how long people in Oklahoma are STAYING in the hospital. That way
the state and hospitals can better prepare reserve beds.

I just mean solely for Covid-19.

The closest measure of that we have is on the Weekly Epidemiology report:

It seems that the overall average for survivors is 5 days in the hospital, with the range from 1-17 days. For those that die, the average is 8 days, but ranges from 2-24 days.

Symptom onset to death averages to 14 days, ranging from 4-32 days.