Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[mugofbeer]

^^^^^

Should just be common sense .

[soonerguru]

If your going to make a point have correct data. Hospitalizations, the thing that we were told was the determining factor were higher in early April than now. Deaths are a lot lower now. Only new cases are higher. Just check the epidemiology reports. I agree that we need to do something serious to slow this crap down but using inaccurate data doesn’t help the case.

Hospitalizations have now surpassed early April.

[soonerguru]

I've heard that he is hesitant to make decisions that might be controversial or unpopular because he has to worry about being re-elected. He wants the council to help shoulder the responsibility/blame.

If so that is lame. He won with like 70% of the vote. He will be reelected in a walk (unless he screws up this Covid thing very badly). If he came out for the masks he would have the same irrational tantrum-throwers yelling who already hate him and think he's a lib. I see no downside unless Stitt and the GOP have literally threatened him.

[Bill Robertson]

Hate to burst your bubble but 499 in the hospital is now 3rd highest total we ever have had. Half are in the ICU. Add recorded number of cases the numbers are going to keep going up. We will soon have more in the hospital then any other time before. Deaths are slowing rising too. We are past the mask stage we need to be back down to phase 1

OK. I think my always trying to stay optimistic took me too far that way. Hospitalizations are not good either. You have my apologies.

[soonerguru]

Which councilors will vote for masks? I’m going to say Greiner will not, but I think it is possible we could see the rest vote “aye.” Maybe I am being too optimistic.

[Pete]

Stitt has been trumpeting the fact that Oklahoma's cases per capita is relatively low; although he said we have the 9th few cases using that metric and my calculations show 13th.

However, our cases per capita are growing rapidly and we are now consistently in the Top 20 states in that category; here are the numbers for yesterday:

1 Arizona 580
2 Louisiana 568
3 Florida 532
4 Georgia 422
5 Texas 347
6 Mississippi 346
7 South Carolina 336
8 Nevada 326
9 Iowa 293
10 Tennessee 286
11 Kansas 285
12 Idaho 280
13 Alabama 272
14 Utah 270
15 Arkansas 249
16 California 222
17 North Carolina 174
18 Oklahoma 151
19 Wisconsin 145
20 New Mexico 142

[RustytheBailiff]

My reply was very fitting to what I was replying to. There is a very valid point to be made for new case numbers being horrible, equating to spread, but to say ‘“numbers” are worse than early April is just not accurate.

Per the statistics available from the Oklahoma State Department of Health there were 579 cases for the week ended 4/29/2020 and 3,957 cases for the week end 7/9/2020. The April numbers stated that 95% of deaths and 50% of the cases were attributable to those over the age of 50. Conversely, in July 96% of the deaths were from people aged 50 and above while only 33% of the cases were from that age group.

There has been a 683% increase in the number of cases from April to July, which certainly suggest that numbers are currently worse than in April. Yes, deaths are temporarily down, but the virus rages on and has lasting effects on some. To say numbers are worse than in April appears to be entirely accurate. As the age of infections creep up so will deaths, and hospitalizations. Deaths are not the number to focus on as Covid-19 doesn't just kill, it also maims some with lasting debilitation.




Since COVID-19 was only discovered a few months ago, its long-term effects are unknown, and while researchers are trying to look at parallels with two other coronaviruses, SARS and MERS-CoV, it will take time to have a full picture of the longer-term consequences of infection with COVID-19.

COVID-19 can cause a range of symptoms of wildly varying severity in people. Some might be asymptomatic or have mild symptoms, while others are sick enough to need hospitalisation, supplementary oxygen and the use of a ventilator. Broadly, as a respiratory virus, COVID-19 causes breathlessness, fatigue and muscle ache. As the pandemic has evolved and documented clinical case histories have accumulated, a new symptom began to emerge – the partial or total loss of the sense of taste and smell. This in itself is not unusual for a respiratory viral infection, but what was unique is that people had this symptom without any of the other usual symptoms of infection.

It’s now clear that the coronavirus doesn’t just attack the respiratory system, and some people have reported gut issues and problems with their kidneys. Severe COVID-19 patients have experienced what’s called a ‘cytokine storm’ in which the body’s immune system goes into a potentially fatal overdrive and leads to multi-organ failure. This has also been seen with influenza, SARS and MERS-CoV.

LONG-LASTING HEALTH EFFECTS OF SARS
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), a coronavirus that emerged in 2003, causes very similar symptoms to COVID-19. As with COVID-19, people over 60 years are at highest risk of severe symptoms.

A study of the long-term effects of SARS undertaken in Hong Kong showed that two years after they had the disease, one in two SARS survivors had much poorer exercise capacity and health status than those who had never had the disease. Only 78% of SARS patients were able to return to full‐time work 1 year after infection.

Another study, also done in Hong Kong, revealed that 40% of people recovering from SARS still had chronic fatigue symptoms 3.5 years after being diagnosed. Viral infections such as SARS and Epstein-Barr virus are known to trigger chronic fatigue syndrome that can last for months or years.

THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR COVID-19
A striking feature of COVID-19 is how long the symptoms can last. Early in the pandemic, initial medical advice on recovery times for mild COVID-19 had suggested 1-2 weeks. However, many people have seen symptoms last for 8 to 10 weeks or longer, and symptoms can seem to go away only to come racing back. A research group at King’s College London, UK, developed a COVID-19 tracker app for people to record their symptoms daily, and estimated 200,000 have been reporting symptoms for the entire six weeks since the tracker was launched.

Many people had a pattern of symptoms, where their symptoms were heightened initially, nearly disappeared, then returned again with ferocity, along with a very wide range of symptoms.

A key question is what is causing the recurring symptoms – i.e. whether it is reactivation of a persistent infection, reinfection (which seems unlikely based on current data), or whether the person has become infected with another virus or even bacteria as their immune system is still recovering.

Given the multi-organ effect of COVID-19 on the body, survivors may have a variety of long-term effects on their organs, including what some doctors are calling ‘post-COVID lung disease’. Looking at the organs that are affected during infection could give an idea of where the long-term effects on the body are likely to manifest.

As we are still in the throes of the pandemic, and at a relatively early stage of a new disease, it is too early to tell what COVID-19 survivors are likely to experience in a year’s time.

Some researchers are concerned, however, that just as with SARS, many people with the new coronavirus will go on to develop post-viral chronic fatigue syndrome.

The uncertainty of the future for COVID-19 survivors is why several long-term cohort studies (that study genetic and environmental factors in large groups over a period of time) have been repurposed to study the physical, mental and socio-economic consequences of the pandemic.

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/lo...fects-covid-19


STAY SAFE WEAR MASKS

[Bill Robertson]

Per the statistics available from the Oklahoma State Department of Health there were 579 cases for the week ended 4/29/2020 and 3,957 cases for the week end 7/9/2020. The April numbers stated that 95% of deaths and 50% of the cases were attributable to those over the age of 50. Conversely, in July 96% of the deaths were from people aged 50 and above while only 33% of the cases were from that age group.

There has been a 683% increase in the number of cases from April to July, which certainly suggest that numbers are currently worse than in April. Yes, deaths are temporarily down, but the virus rages on and has lasting effects on some. To say numbers are worse than in April appears to be entirely accurate. As the age of infections creep up so will deaths, and hospitalizations. Deaths are not the number to focus on as Covid-19 doesn't just kill, it also maims some with lasting debilitation.




Since COVID-19 was only discovered a few months ago, its long-term effects are unknown, and while researchers are trying to look at parallels with two other coronaviruses, SARS and MERS-CoV, it will take time to have a full picture of the longer-term consequences of infection with COVID-19.

COVID-19 can cause a range of symptoms of wildly varying severity in people. Some might be asymptomatic or have mild symptoms, while others are sick enough to need hospitalisation, supplementary oxygen and the use of a ventilator. Broadly, as a respiratory virus, COVID-19 causes breathlessness, fatigue and muscle ache. As the pandemic has evolved and documented clinical case histories have accumulated, a new symptom began to emerge – the partial or total loss of the sense of taste and smell. This in itself is not unusual for a respiratory viral infection, but what was unique is that people had this symptom without any of the other usual symptoms of infection.

It’s now clear that the coronavirus doesn’t just attack the respiratory system, and some people have reported gut issues and problems with their kidneys. Severe COVID-19 patients have experienced what’s called a ‘cytokine storm’ in which the body’s immune system goes into a potentially fatal overdrive and leads to multi-organ failure. This has also been seen with influenza, SARS and MERS-CoV.

LONG-LASTING HEALTH EFFECTS OF SARS
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), a coronavirus that emerged in 2003, causes very similar symptoms to COVID-19. As with COVID-19, people over 60 years are at highest risk of severe symptoms.

A study of the long-term effects of SARS undertaken in Hong Kong showed that two years after they had the disease, one in two SARS survivors had much poorer exercise capacity and health status than those who had never had the disease. Only 78% of SARS patients were able to return to full‐time work 1 year after infection.

Another study, also done in Hong Kong, revealed that 40% of people recovering from SARS still had chronic fatigue symptoms 3.5 years after being diagnosed. Viral infections such as SARS and Epstein-Barr virus are known to trigger chronic fatigue syndrome that can last for months or years.

THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR COVID-19
A striking feature of COVID-19 is how long the symptoms can last. Early in the pandemic, initial medical advice on recovery times for mild COVID-19 had suggested 1-2 weeks. However, many people have seen symptoms last for 8 to 10 weeks or longer, and symptoms can seem to go away only to come racing back. A research group at King’s College London, UK, developed a COVID-19 tracker app for people to record their symptoms daily, and estimated 200,000 have been reporting symptoms for the entire six weeks since the tracker was launched.

Many people had a pattern of symptoms, where their symptoms were heightened initially, nearly disappeared, then returned again with ferocity, along with a very wide range of symptoms.

A key question is what is causing the recurring symptoms – i.e. whether it is reactivation of a persistent infection, reinfection (which seems unlikely based on current data), or whether the person has become infected with another virus or even bacteria as their immune system is still recovering.

Given the multi-organ effect of COVID-19 on the body, survivors may have a variety of long-term effects on their organs, including what some doctors are calling ‘post-COVID lung disease’. Looking at the organs that are affected during infection could give an idea of where the long-term effects on the body are likely to manifest.

As we are still in the throes of the pandemic, and at a relatively early stage of a new disease, it is too early to tell what COVID-19 survivors are likely to experience in a year’s time.

Some researchers are concerned, however, that just as with SARS, many people with the new coronavirus will go on to develop post-viral chronic fatigue syndrome.

The uncertainty of the future for COVID-19 survivors is why several long-term cohort studies (that study genetic and environmental factors in large groups over a period of time) have been repurposed to study the physical, mental and socio-economic consequences of the pandemic.

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/lo...fects-covid-19


STAY SAFE WEAR MASKS

I already posted an apology for misstating that the hospitalizations were not at the April levels yet. And I understand the long term issues. I myself have had some minor shortness of breath issues, fatigue and days when I sweat and feel like I’m burning up when I’m maybe running a half a degree high. I humbly grovel for being wrong.

[LocoAko]

Anecdotally, it sounds like there's is now near perfect mask compliance in Norman shops, despite a mask mandate being "unenforceable".

Gee, who'd have thought....... *eyeroll*

[Bill Robertson]

Just left Homeland on N Rockwell. Every employee was masked but one stocker who probably works for the supplier so the company policy wouldn’t apply. It should though. Almost all customers had on masks too. Way up from a couple weeks ago. Seems like more people are catching on even without a mandate or ordinance.

[Bill Robertson]

Which councilors will vote for masks? I’m going to say Greiner will not, but I think it is possible we could see the rest vote “aye.” Maybe I am being too optimistic.

I house your right. I’m also wondering. The mayor can make a mandate but wouldn’t anything done by the council be an actual ordinance. And would that make it more enforceable?

[emtefury]

I find it interesting the story is cases cases cases without context. I recall when this started, I always what the denominator was because it skewed the ratio. With the high increase in testing, we are finding out the ratio and it is much lower to the point COVID is getting the flu territory. Also, the CDC is trending towards no longer calling COVID an epidemic due to the ever decreasing death ratio. Why is the death ratio going down because the increase in testing is showing the true denominator.

Another reminder of the purpose of flatten the curve. The same amount of people that were going to get COVID with or without the shutdown. The flatten the curve spread the length of when cases would happen and what seeing right now.

Another reminder 60M people got the swine flu in a one year period, I don’t remember the hysteria happening. Where was the mask shaming and the Media hysteria? What has changed?

Another fact, the hospitalization rate for COVID for children is lower than the flu. Are we going to shutdown school every year during flu season? Why didn’t we wear mask during every flu season at schools? Where was the media hysteria every flu season? What has changed?

[RustytheBailiff]

I already posted an apology for misstating that the hospitalizations were not at the April levels yet. And I understand the long term issues. I myself have had some minor shortness of breath issues, fatigue and days when I sweat and feel like I’m burning up when I’m maybe running a half a degree high. I humbly grovel for being wrong.

I hope you have not caught the virus, if you have, my prayers go out to you with the hope of a speedy recovery.



STAY SAFE WEAR MASKS

[Pete]

^

Where to begin...

First of all, Swine flu only killed 12,500 people in the U.S. in a year's time. Covid-19 has already killed 136,000 in the U.S. in about 4 months (with a huge lockdown) and we are still adding about 1,000 additional deaths per day. The mortality rate is exponentially higher with Covid.

Fauci himself said 4 days ago no one should take comfort from the mortality rate dropping in the near term:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/07/polit...nse/index.html

Another fact, the hospitalization rate for COVID for children is lower than the flu. Are we going to shutdown school every year during flu season? Why didn’t we wear mask during every flu season at schools? Where was the media hysteria every flu season? What has changed?

Kids have been out of school since March. The virus is spreading much faster now than when schools closed. Do you honestly believe that school closures haven't been directly responsible for kids not getting sick?

The same amount of people that were going to get COVID with or without the shutdown.

This is absurd. Since reopening cases have gone through the roof and it was only slowed by the closures.

[Pete]

BTW, the U.S. had more than 70,000 (!) new cases yesterday, another record by a fair measure.

We are racing toward over 100,000 new cases per day at a time when almost every other country has this under control.

[d-usa]

What has changed?

*vaguely points to the previous posts of this thread where this question has been asked and answered over and over again*

We can post it for you, but we can’t make you read it, and we certainly can’t make you comprehend it.

[PoliSciGuy]

I find it interesting the story is cases cases cases without context. I recall when this started, I always what the denominator was because it skewed the ratio. With the high increase in testing, we are finding out the ratio and it is much lower to the point COVID is getting the flu territory. Also, the CDC is trending towards no longer calling COVID an epidemic due to the ever decreasing death ratio. Why is the death ratio going down because the increase in testing is showing the true denominator.

Another reminder of the purpose of flatten the curve. The same amount of people that were going to get COVID with or without the shutdown. The flatten the curve spread the length of when cases would happen and what seeing right now.

Another reminder 60M people got the swine flu in a one year period, I don’t remember the hysteria happening. Where was the mask shaming and the Media hysteria? What has changed?

Another fact, the hospitalization rate for COVID for children is lower than the flu. Are we going to shutdown school every year during flu season? Why didn’t we wear mask during every flu season at schools? Where was the media hysteria every flu season? What has changed?

Holy cow, this is all wrong. Let's walk through it:

I find it interesting the story is cases cases cases without context. I recall when this started, I always what the denominator was because it skewed the ratio. With the high increase in testing, we are finding out the ratio and it is much lower to the point COVID is getting the flu territory. Also, the CDC is trending towards no longer calling COVID an epidemic due to the ever decreasing death ratio. Why is the death ratio going down because the increase in testing is showing the true denominator.

It's not just cases, it is percentage of positives. If this was simply a result of more testing, the percentage rate would be going down. For example, check out New York. They've had a surge in testing since May and their positivity rate continues to decrease: https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/...619392001?s=20

Second, most studies have the CFR of COVID between 0.5%-1%, or more than 5 to ten times the severity of the flu. This is still significantly higher than "flu territory." https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2

Third, the death ratio is going down because deaths, as we've been saying for a couple weeks now, lag. And we are now seeing deaths in Texas, Florida, and Arizona begin to rise up and there is no indication that this rise is going to arrest any time soon: https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-de...e66f38667.html

Another reminder of the purpose of flatten the curve. The same amount of people that were going to get COVID with or without the shutdown. The flatten the curve spread the length of when cases would happen and what seeing right now.

No, the same amount of people weren't going to get COVID with or without the shutdown. Unless you have some sort of proof to back up such an absurd claim, that flies in the face of the experience of Italy, France, Spain, Germany, Japan, South Korea, etc.

Another reminder 60M people got the swine flu in a one year period, I don’t remember the hysteria happening. Where was the mask shaming and the Media hysteria? What has changed?

The swine flu was a flu virus, to which we already had some native immunity, could modify the flu vaccine to expand that immunity, and the swine flu had a CFR of 0.09% (https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...-fatality-rate), or about the same as a typical flu season.

Your error is in comparing a novel virus of which we still don't know the long-term ramifications of and have no native immunity to, to an influenza virus which we have fought before, have treatments and vaccinations for, and which we have kept the death rate down significantly. Apples and oranges.

Another fact, the hospitalization rate for COVID for children is lower than the flu. Are we going to shutdown school every year during flu season? Why didn’t we wear mask during every flu season at schools? Where was the media hysteria every flu season? What has changed?

...and your flawed comparison continues. We don't shut down every school year for flu season (though some schools shut down when they have an inundation of cases) because we have treatments and vaccines for the flu and a native immunity. Also, the big issues with opening schools up isn't necessarily the kids but the numerous adults who work there, and the families of the kids who go to school who may get infected.

You really need to stop making false comparisons to the flu virus, and just do some general reading, otherwise you end up with really flawed posts.

[pw405]

BTW, the U.S. had more than 70,000 (!) new cases yesterday, another record by a fair measure.

We are racing toward over 100,000 new cases per day at a time when almost every other country has this under control.

Damn it, I kinna hoped I would be wrong when I said this back on July 5th:

...
...

If the US % positive rate gets to 10%, then we can expect to see daily case counts in the 70,000+ range.

[pw405]

Here to report more bad news!

Surprised this hasn't been mentioned more, but the Weekly Report (https://coronavirus.health.ok.gov/we...illance-report) from the state comes out at the end of every week, and this week's has a VERY bad sign: we've jumped from mid-6% positive rate in testing, all the way up to 9.7%.

To show how this weekly figure has trended over time, I overlaid the testing section from June 5 - current. Last week's report actually showed a sliver of hope for a (very small) decreasing positive rate. That's gone now.

[Pete]

687 new cases today; 2nd highest ever.

5 more people died.

[kukblue1]

687 new cases today; 2nd highest ever.

Don't Saturday's tend to be low

[Pete]

Don't Saturday's tend to be low

Sundays and Mondays tend to be the lowest.

Sat 7/11: 687
Sat 7/4: 580
Sat 6/27: 299
Sat 6/20: 331
Sat 6/13: 225

[FighttheGoodFight]

Looked at that early today pw405, the positive rate for last week being 9.7% is honestly terrifying. I believe once Texas went over 10% they started to mandate masks and shut things down again.

[Pete]

Net hospitalizations went up by 12.

Our 7-day rolling average for new cases is now 591.

[Libbymin]

It frustrates the hell out of me that we would wait to do a mask mandate until the numbers have already skyrocketed.