Using RT-PCR test results, along with reported time of exposure to the virus or time of onset of measurable symptoms such as fever, cough and breathing problems, the researchers calculated the probability that someone infected with SARS-CoV-2 would have a negative test result when they had the virus infection. In the published studies, health care providers collected nasal and throat samples -from patients and noted the time of virus exposure or symptom -onset and sample collection.
From this data, the Johns Hopkins researchers calculated daily false-negative rates, and have made their statistical code and data publicly available so results can be updated as more data are published.
The researchers estimated that those tested with SARS-CoV-2 in the four days after infection were 67% more likely to test negative, even if they had the virus. When the average patient began displaying symptoms of the virus, the false-negative rate was 38%. The test performed best eight days after infection (on average, three days after symptom onset), but even then had a false negative rate of 20%, meaning one in five people who had the virus had a negative test result.
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