Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[Pete]

Sorry to feed a troll message, but what specific freedoms were surrendered and how did they threaten our country?

You missed the sarcasm.

[mkjeeves]

The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...160634880.html

TLDR version...we're in deep deep trouble.

[pw405]

Oh boy... Hopefully this is an anomaly due to holiday weekend, but 434 new cases, with 1 additional death. A new record for a Monday if memory serves correctly. Which is typically a foreboding sign for the week ahead.

[kukblue1]

Oh boy... Hopefully this is an anomaly due to holiday weekend, but 434 new cases, with 1 additional death. A new record for a Monday if memory serves correctly. Which is typically a foreboding sign for the week ahead.

It's not good. Was every station reporting numbers or were some closed this weekend? Either way it is a record for Monday

[oklip955]

I'm worried about the numbers next week to two weeks from now when we see the results of no social distancing over the holiday weekend. Like some poster said 600+ not out of the question. Also interested to see what will come out of tonights Edmond city council emergency meeting over covid 19.

[jerrywall]

Also interested to see what will come out of tonights Edmond city council emergency meeting over covid 19.

I'm not holding out hopes. They've already ruled out taking any sort of actions that might close businesses. I've not had great luck getting more than "we're monitoring the situation" type platitudes when I've reached out to the council about mask requirements or restrictions for bars and restaurants.

[Pete]

Yep, 434 new cases on a Monday.

To put that in perspective, the last 2 Mondays -- both leading into record-shattering weeks -- were 228 (6/29) and 218 (6/22). So, 434 is almost double any previous Monday.

Does not bode well for the coming week.

[Libbymin]

We know that this thing dissipates quickly outside so if one practices social distancing outside, there's a much lower risk of getting infected than if you're inside. Knowing that would make me hopeful that the numbers from people celebrating the 4th would hopefully be not as bad as predicted, but unfortunately I've seen plenty of pictures of people celebrating in crowds of people. It's just so frustrating that people can't do the bare freaking minimum.

[Bunty]

Just yesterday, our nation's top politician stated that 99% of the cases are 'harmless'.

Fully 4.5% of all people diagnosed with the disease have died and hundreds of thousands more have been hospitalized.


So, we are nowhere close to even recognizing the problem let alone dealing with it.

If this is allowed to rage on through the end of the year, and that certainly seems to be the case, we are going to be in deep poop all the way around.

So probably almost none of Trump's Secret Service and campaign workers infected by the virus feel bad, so that's where Trump came up with his 99%. Donald Trump Jr.'s girlfriend, who tested positive, probably isn't feeling bad, either. If that isn't so, it might help the country, if they publicly said something like, "I wouldn't wish this virus upon my worst enemy."

As long as most people don't know of anybody who had to go to the hospital over the virus, much less died from it, the virus is not going to be taken as seriously as it should be. However, considering how much the cable TV media sensationalizes the virus, you'd think enough people would eventually get the message and stop setting case number totals, if they're paying attention.

[PhiAlpha]

It's probably too late. The US has utterly failed. There are still morons arguing that they shouldn't have to wear a f*cking mask while recently opened restaurants and stores are self closing because they are having coronavirus outbreaks among their staffs. This is an avoidable tragedy. I cannot believe all of my stupid neighbors illegally shooting off fireworks to celebrate this $hiT$how of a country. God bless the people who rationed food and stockpiled lead for bullets during World War II. Not only did they value and understand what "freedom" means in our country, they understood that their rights came with responsibilities. But those days are obviously long gone.

There's no point putting lipstick on this pig. The US has utterly failed, and will continue to fail, and no amount of boosterish nonsense is going to bring our economy back. Fauci said early on that we don't define the timeline, the virus does.

We now know how this is spread and we could take action to virtually eliminate the spread without shutting down businesses but there are too many selfish morons in this country who are unwilling to take basic steps to get this under control. At this point, it is completely out of control.

I am extremely disappointed that Mayor Holt is not taking action on a mask ordinance. He is a great mayor and he is literally like the only major public official who has done anything in our backward state (along with the Norman mayor who, unbelievably, is receiving DEATH THREATS for her decisions to protect the public), but it is absurd that he is still espousing "personal responsibility" as a solution when it is abundantly obvious that too many of our fellow Okies do not understand nor will ever exercise "public responsibility." Holt is a Republican, after all, and for some reason, Republicans seem to believe in this magical "personal responsibility" fairy tale.

This is a wayward ship hurtling toward an iceberg.

LOL. Your neighbors and many people here are not STUPID for not agreeing with your EXTREMELY strong OPINIONS and choosing to celebrate the 4th of July.

[chuck5815]

It's probably too late. The US has utterly failed. There are still morons arguing that they shouldn't have to wear a f*cking mask while recently opened restaurants and stores are self closing because they are having coronavirus outbreaks among their staffs. This is an avoidable tragedy. I cannot believe all of my stupid neighbors illegally shooting off fireworks to celebrate this $hiT$how of a country. God bless the people who rationed food and stockpiled lead for bullets during World War II. Not only did they value and understand what "freedom" means in our country, they understood that their rights came with responsibilities. But those days are obviously long gone.

There's no point putting lipstick on this pig. The US has utterly failed, and will continue to fail, and no amount of boosterish nonsense is going to bring our economy back. Fauci said early on that we don't define the timeline, the virus does.

We now know how this is spread and we could take action to virtually eliminate the spread without shutting down businesses but there are too many selfish morons in this country who are unwilling to take basic steps to get this under control. At this point, it is completely out of control.

I am extremely disappointed that Mayor Holt is not taking action on a mask ordinance. He is a great mayor and he is literally like the only major public official who has done anything in our backward state (along with the Norman mayor who, unbelievably, is receiving DEATH THREATS for her decisions to protect the public), but it is absurd that he is still espousing "personal responsibility" as a solution when it is abundantly obvious that too many of our fellow Okies do not understand nor will ever exercise "public responsibility." Holt is a Republican, after all, and for some reason, Republicans seem to believe in this magical "personal responsibility" fairy tale.

This is a wayward ship hurtling toward an iceberg.

My 401k is up BIG this year. Is yours not?

[Bunty]

The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...160634880.html

TLDR version...we're in deep deep trouble.

From article, "We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths." But what if NYC learned a lot in how to successfully treat the virus and is being passed on, so we'll continue to have a low rate of deaths?

[jccouger]

My 401k is up BIG this year. Is yours not?

LMAO, this is way off topic but are you completely judging the economy based on the stock market alone?

[Bunty]

I'm worried about the numbers next week to two weeks from now when we see the results of no social distancing over the holiday weekend. Like some poster said 600+ not out of the question. Also interested to see what will come out of tonights Edmond city council emergency meeting over covid 19.

If it's revealed at the meeting that hospitalizations over the virus in Edmond are alarmingly up, then surely the council will make mask wear mandatory. The same issue will be discussed in Stillwater Monday evening, where total cases are at 378 for the 8th highest in Oklahoma.

[Pete]

The U.S. just passed the 3 million positive case mark.

We only have 4% of the world's population but 25.8% of the Covid-19 cases.

[Ed Shadid]

The U.S. just passed the 3 million positive case mark.

We only have 4% of the world's population but 25.8% of the Covid-19 cases.

True: but while the U.S. has slowly increased its tests/1 million population to roughly 114,000, countries such as Brazil (15,000), India (7,000) and Mexico (5,000) mean the numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[OKC Guy]

So probably almost none of Trump's Secret Service and campaign workers infected by the virus feel bad, so that's where Trump came up with his 99%. Donald Trump Jr.'s girlfriend, who tested positive, probably isn't feeling bad, either. If that isn't so, it might help the country, if they publicly said something like, "I wouldn't wish this virus upon my worst enemy."

As long as most people don't know of anybody who had to go to the hospital over the virus, much less died from it, the virus is not going to be taken as seriously as it should be. However, considering how much the cable TV media sensationalizes the virus, you'd think enough people would eventually get the message and stop setting case number totals, if they're paying attention.

I would love to reply to the politics portion but I’m sure I would be banned since I’m not on the favored side of that argument. Its like posters try and goad political replies in non political thread. Not biting.

I did post some good stats in Pol Covid thread yesterday, showing the top 25 Dallas hospitals are at less than 67% of capacity and this is bankruptcy numbers. Their Vent % is at 37% capacity, again way lower than normal even pre-Covid. They need more patients but Covid scare is keeping people away. The data came from their mayor. If hospitals start to go under and lay off medical workers this is going to create long lasting damage to our medical system. That in turn hurts all of us eventually.

Also, I would like to see the death rate numbers it seems we have been trending lower and lower over time. Thats good news even if positive numbers are up. Numbers are up because more are testing and more were out at protests - and this crowd skewed younger - and younger death rates are almost non existent below 40 years old. If we took out this anomaly then our pos numbers would be declining.

[runOKC]

Numbers are up because more are testing and more were out at protests

This is not true.

[oklip955]

Here is my thought. A friend in the UK who is under 40 got it and was extremely ill for about a month and is slowly recovering. I am over 60 and don't want to get it. With other health concerns I don't want to take the risk. I am staying home, limiting my contact with other people. The younger people can go on and infect older people, this needs to be a concern. When people wear masks, the risk of transmision is much lower. I favor a mask ordinance to protect older poeple. Not all older people can just stay home and home groceries and other needed items delivered. If you live out of the delivery area then your out of luck.

[AP]

This is not true.

His entire argument is untrue and was disproved up thread.

I mean literally every single item: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...160634880.html

[OKC Guy]

This is not true.

What would you account for higher positives and lower death rate then?

[PoliSciGuy]

I would love to reply to the politics portion but I’m sure I would be banned since I’m not on the favored side of that argument. Its like posters try and goad political replies in non political thread. Not biting.

I did post some good stats in Pol Covid thread yesterday, showing the top 25 Dallas hospitals are at less than 67% of capacity and this is bankruptcy numbers. Their Vent % is at 37% capacity, again way lower than normal even pre-Covid. They need more patients but Covid scare is keeping people away. The data came from their mayor. If hospitals start to go under and lay off medical workers this is going to create long lasting damage to our medical system. That in turn hurts all of us eventually.

Also, I would like to see the death rate numbers it seems we have been trending lower and lower over time. Thats good news even if positive numbers are up. Numbers are up because more are testing and more were out at protests - and this crowd skewed younger - and younger death rates are almost non existent below 40 years old. If we took out this anomaly then our pos numbers would be declining.

You wouldn’t be banned because you’re “not on the favored side,” but rather than you continue to trot out misinformation that genuinely puts people at risk.

First, it’s not the protests:

http://komonews.com/news/local/fewer...or-coronavirus

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/06/...e-coronavirus/

https://www.twincities.com/2020/06/1...ew-protesters/

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...rus-surge.html

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408

Second, this isn’t just due to increased testing. If it was, we’d see the positivity rate stay the same or even lower. The fact that we see the numbers rising and the R0 number bigger than 1 means that this thing is spreading.

As for the lower death rate, it’s an example of the Simpson Paradox. If you look at TX, AZ, FL and other states where the outbreaks are happening, their death rates are rising. We’re just missing it because we’re agglomerating the data at a national level and lose the nuance: https://youtu.be/ebEkn-BiW5k

Here’s a good twitter thread that explains how we fall for this bias: https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/...160634880?s=21

[OKC Guy]

For those who missed it here is Dallas mayor:

Mayor Eric Johnson
@Johnson4Dallas
Here are the bed and ventilator capacity statistics as reported by 25 hospitals in the
@CityOfDallas
:

Total beds: 6106
Beds occupied: 3959 (65%)
Total ICU beds: 968
ICU beds occupied: 652 (67%)
Total ventilators: 960
Ventilators in use: 351 (37%)
2:50 PM · Jul 5, 2020

https://mobile.twitter.com/Johnson4D...65311945273350

[OKC Guy]

Before you shoot the messenger keep in mind, Clay got these numbers from CDC and he posted the CDC graph in his article:

“On July 4th 254 people died of the coronavirus nationwide. That number went even lower on Sunday because today, on July 5th just 209 people died nationwide of the coronavirus. These 254 deaths on Saturday and 209 deaths on Sunday represent a remarkable death rate decline of 92.4% from the peak daily death total of 2,749 set on April 21st. Saturday and Sunday were also the two lowest days for number of deaths in the country from the coronavirus since March 23rd”

https://outkick.com/coronavirus-dail...traight-weeks/

[PoliSciGuy]

That’s another great example of how we need to be careful with how we analyze data. Dallas is rising but is by no means swamped, meanwhile Houston, home to one of the best medical centers in the world, is already in surge capacity and running out of ECMO beds. Some rural towns of Texas are epicenters while others have few cases. So when we see Texas numbers we need to *not* see it as every single Texan municipality has the exact same scenario.

Edit: ah yes, noted epidemiologist Clay Travis, who is conveniently omitting the fact that AZ, TX, CA and other states’ reporting was only partial due to the holiday weekend