Covid-19 Economic Impact

[Teo9969]

I've seen a few places that called into question the report that came out Friday and that there will be some revisions to that data likely writing down some of those 2.5 million new jobs.

And to Pete's point, with a lot of immediate returns being hospitality, I'd bet many of those jobs turn right back around and end in unemployment again.

It's good news for sure, but I don't think it really addresses the bigger concern which is a longer period of unemployment in excess of 7/8%. It's going to be awhile before we get under that because the labor market is going to be substantially out of whack due to the disparate effects on different industries due to the pandemic.

[Pete]

I was in the Garage in MIdtown last night... Normally packed on a Saturday night.

There were less than 20 people in there.

[PhiAlpha]

Agree with AP - hope you are weathering the storm as well as possible. Hopefully this will just be a blip and the economy can shake this off over the next 12 months. I see you are selling your wind powered investment, are you trading up to an oil tanker?

“Investment” Hahahaha. I actually upgraded to a larger wind powered money pit back in November (it does have an inboard gas powered motor though lol). I was planning to sell the old one back in March...though I figured it would be harder to show it to potential buyers during the Covid times so I just got around to listing it.

Hope everything is going okay for you as well! My friend with AA has been concerned about the potential reckoning coming in October but he said they’ve been really encouraged by bookings over the last few weeks. Hope UA is pulling through.

*On edit, just read your previous post about taking a voluntary layoff. Sorry you had to make that call...hope they at least treated you alright with it and that there will be room for you to jump back into it (or something else) within a few months!

[catch22]

“Investment” Hahahaha. I actually upgraded to a larger wind powered money pit back in November (it does have an inboard gas powered motor though lol). I was planning to sell the old one back in March...though I figured it would be harder to show it to potential buyers during the Covid times so I just got around to listing it.

Hope everything is going okay for you as well! My friend with AA has been concerned about the potential reckoning coming in October but he said they’ve been really encouraged by bookings over the last few weeks. Hope UA is pulling through.

*On edit, just read your previous post about taking a voluntary layoff. Sorry you had to make that call...hope they at least treated you alright with it and that there will be room for you to jump back into it (or something else) within a few months!

Thanks. I have a guaranteed return date of 7/26. No loss of seniority or anything. Just pure time off. We shall see what comes in October, but it's likely not going to be pretty. Until then I'm grilling, chilling, and exploring!

[gopokes88]

Thanks. I have a guaranteed return date of 7/26. No loss of seniority or anything. Just pure time off. We shall see what comes in October, but it's likely not going to be pretty. Until then I'm grilling, chilling, and exploring!

I’m pretty optimistic airlines will go back to DC say we need till next May, but if we can get to May 80% of demand is back. AA already adding back capacity at a pretty quick clip is a good omen. It’ll have a good shot to get through.

[catch22]

Maybe - Allegiant told their workers within the past couple of days they won't need layoffs, they are running an 85% schedule for July. Expecting to be back to normal soon. leisure travel is coming back, business may take a while. United and Delta are bears while Southwest and American are very bullish on a recovery. Southwest is expecting to run a full schedule by December

[PhiAlpha]

Thanks. I have a guaranteed return date of 7/26. No loss of seniority or anything. Just pure time off. We shall see what comes in October, but it's likely not going to be pretty. Until then I'm grilling, chilling, and exploring!

Wow! Congrats! What a deal! Live it up!

[TheTravellers]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/06/polit...ntv/index.html

"BLS, however, noted its data collectors — for the third month in a row — misclassified some workers as "employed not at work," when they should have been classified as "unemployed on temporary layoff."
Barring that issue, the unemployment rate could have been as high as 19.2% in April and 16.1% in May, not including seasonal adjustments, the BLS said."

[chuck5815]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/06/polit...ntv/index.html

"BLS, however, noted its data collectors — for the third month in a row — misclassified some workers as "employed not at work," when they should have been classified as "unemployed on temporary layoff."
Barring that issue, the unemployment rate could have been as high as 19.2% in April and 16.1% in May, not including seasonal adjustments, the BLS said."

Tomato tomato.

[mugofbeer]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/06/polit...ntv/index.html

"BLS, however, noted its data collectors — for the third month in a row — misclassified some workers as "employed not at work," when they should have been classified as "unemployed on temporary layoff."
Barring that issue, the unemployment rate could have been as high as 19.2% in April and 16.1% in May, not including seasonal adjustments, the BLS said."

Big deal, expected job losses of 7 - 10 million. Result, job gains of all time record of 2.5 million! That's what matters.

[Bunty]

I was in the Garage in MIdtown last night... Normally packed on a Saturday night.

There were less than 20 people in there.

Perhaps some people from having to cook at home discovered they can make hamburgers as good or better.

[Edmond Hausfrau]

1.48 million new unemployment claims nationally. Meanwhile, the Oklahoman is reporting that June retail foot traffic is close to pre-pandemic levels. OKC sales tax collection is down, but budgeting seems able to absorb it. I'm not an economist, but there really seems to be a disconnect between the pain that the pandemic is causing the average worker, and the ongoing hum of a normal economy.

[FighttheGoodFight]

1.48 million new unemployment claims nationally. Meanwhile, the Oklahoman is reporting that June retail foot traffic is close to pre-pandemic levels. OKC sales tax collection is down, but budgeting seems able to absorb it. I'm not an economist, but there really seems to be a disconnect between the pain that the pandemic is causing the average worker, and the ongoing hum of a normal economy.

I am hoping that the predicted 14% layoffs after PPP is used up doesn't hurt OK too much.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/23/14pe...ppp-loans.html

[Pete]

I am hoping that the predicted 14% layoffs after PPP is used up doesn't hurt OK too much.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/23/14pe...ppp-loans.html

I've been talking about this since the beginning.

That PPP money is going to run out and unless there are billions of easy money loans to follow, you can count on a huge surge of small business closures.

[jerrywall]

I've been talking about this since the beginning.

That PPP money is going to run out and unless there are billions of easy money loans to follow, you can count on a huge surge of small business closures.

Yeah, I thought for sure there would be follow up waves for relief. I thought it was understood that the PPP money was just a short stopgap. But any talks of more assistance seem to have fallen off (or at least aren't getting much visibility).

[Pete]

Dow is down 600 points today after a really bad week.

I'm surprised it hasn't dropped farther but we are talking about huge companies with loads of money, which is very different than the majority of American businesses.

New cases hit another all-time high in the U.S. yesterday. I think things are going to get a lot worse before they get better.

[Pete]

Microsoft just announced it is closing all 83 of its retail stores.

This means the location in Penn Square Mall is now finished.

[TheTravellers]

Dow is down 600 points today after a really bad week.

I'm surprised it hasn't dropped farther but we are talking about huge companies with loads of money, which is very different than the majority of American businesses.

New cases hit another all-time high in the U.S. yesterday. I think things are going to get a lot worse before they get better.

When the PPP runs out and nothing more is forthcoming (which may or may not happen, but I'm doubting Congress will do much from here on out - "pull yourselves up by your bootstraps, it's your fault you didn't have enough money in the bank to ride this out, you losers"), wonder if the protests then will make the recent ones look like child's play?

[mugofbeer]

Dow is down 600 points today after a really bad week.

I'm surprised it hasn't dropped farther but we are talking about huge companies with loads of money, which is very different than the majority of American businesses.

New cases hit another all-time high in the U.S. yesterday. I think things are going to get a lot worse before they get better.

Because we are at the end of a quarter in which the market has been sharply up, nearly to record levels for a quarter, mutual funds, pension funds and other institutional pools of assets have to rebalance by the end of the day so it was anticipated the market would be down and may be down significantly more by the end of the day as stock assets are moved to bond assets. COVID probably weighs in there too based on Texas and FLorida re-closing some businesses.

[Teo9969]

DJIA futures down for tomorrow and it's really looking like COVID is going to have it's way with the US Economy.

[TheTravellers]

DJIA futures down for tomorrow and it's really looking like COVID is going to have it's way with the US Economy.

Of course it will, we've handled it like a broke Third World country (hell, some of those might be handling it better than we are).

[mugofbeer]

DJIA futures down for tomorrow and it's really looking like COVID is going to have it's way with the US Economy.

They are barely down at all. Russell 2000 futures which represents all listed and OTC automated stock are actually up slightly. If anything, it says the market is still unsure but not panicked over COVID at this moment.

[gopokes88]

DJIA futures down for tomorrow and it's really looking like COVID is going to have it's way with the US Economy.

Already back in the green.

[pw405]

I've got a bad feeling that Wall St. hasn't fully accepted the realities of the economy just yet. (I own a significant amount of stocks). After seeing all these local businesses get dragged on social media about a covid case happening (or thought to have happened) there, and if they reported it, how they're treating employees, etc. It gives me concern that the fear factor in going out and doing normal things will be around for some time. Probably another year.

[Pete]

As everyone knows, I track the crap out of new construction projects, restaurants, retail stores, etc.

And as you would expect, things have slowed way, way down.

At the very minimum, this means the pipeline is running pretty dry and we'll really see that in the next few months where there is very little new starting up. We have a lot of things already in progress but most of them will be soon finishing up.

And another huge factor: Landlords and developers are not getting rent in a lot of cases or are just cutting way back so their tenants can make it through. This is going to have a big impact on their ability to do anything new.

We've had a ton of new construction and projects over the last decade, but we are going to see a hiccup in the near future and it's just a matter of how long that down period is going to last.

Especially since we were headed for at least a small local economic downturn before Covid-19.