Covid-19 Economic Impact

[Edmond Hausfrau]

I don't think SC Johnson is publicly traded. Still a family held private company.

[Mr. Blue Sky]

I simply can't believe the stock market isn't way, way down.

I don't think people have come to terms with the economic realities we are facing. This will take years to dig out of.

Besides no businesses making money, everyone I know (including me) is drastically reducing their spending.

Except for the rich. Read this as a small business owner --
https://inthesetimes.com/article/225...porate-welfare
It makes me sick when small businesses struggle and are fighting for their lives to read things like the above.
Add to that, another travesty and I really don't think this has been given the attention it deserves...CHURCHES have gotten a big percentage of PPP money. They applied en masse and is a big reason the money ran out so fast. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/catholi...lied-9000-got/

[Edmond Hausfrau]

And mark my words, they'll be the first ones to cry about why isn't the government giving them support when they find themselves out of work or retired and have nothing to use for retirement living.

The stupid thing is, if they did the 3 - 6 % withholding, they'd likely not even miss it.

Not sure how many large companies will follow suit,but Mercy has said no 401k/403b match for anyone for the rest of 2020.
Are those people allowed to ask the government for help? They are doing it "right" by contributing, but no match. Are they allowed to cry?

[Edmond Hausfrau]

Except for the rich. Read this as a small business owner --
https://inthesetimes.com/article/225...porate-welfare
It makes me sick when small businesses struggle and are fighting for their lives to read things like the above.
Add to that, another travesty and I really don't think this has been given the attention it deserves...CHURCHES have gotten a big percentage of PPP money. They applied en masse and is a big reason the money ran out so fast. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/catholi...lied-9000-got/

Additionally, a lot of dividend checks are still going out to shareholders. Decreasing the payroll and workforce benefits, resulting in leaner meaner companies usually means nice payouts to the shareholders.

[gopokes88]

Except for the rich. Read this as a small business owner --
https://inthesetimes.com/article/225...porate-welfare
It makes me sick when small businesses struggle and are fighting for their lives to read things like the above.
Add to that, another travesty and I really don't think this has been given the attention it deserves...CHURCHES have gotten a big percentage of PPP money. They applied en masse and is a big reason the money ran out so fast. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/catholi...lied-9000-got/

If you do things fast you can't do them well.

[Mr. Blue Sky]

If you do things fast you can't do them well.

Quite true. But there's also a flip side and that's what things get done (by both sides) intentionally to benefit their big money donors. And for that, the quicker the better. It's sad.

[Stew]

If you do things fast you can't do them well.

That's what she said.

[Teo9969]

I don't think SC Johnson is publicly traded. Still a family held private company.

Damn, I get them and Johnson and Johnson confused.

At any rate SC Johnson would be in that upper middle class of publicly traded companies with 13k EEs and $10B in annual revenue, they just happen to be private.

[mugofbeer]

I simply can't believe the stock market isn't way, way down.

I don't think people have come to terms with the economic realities we are facing. This will take years to dig out of.

Besides no businesses making money, everyone I know (including me) is drastically reducing their spending.

Certain companies are vastly overpriced. Other companies are priced at virtually nothing. Keep in mind, the stay at home doesn't hurt everyone and there are international and foreign companies not under quarantine.

There will be many, many bankruptcies and many, many mergers. I am afraid OKC may lose out in O & G. I wish there were some kind of effort behind the scenes, for larger, stronger OKC O & G firms to buy out some that may go bankrupt, such as Chesapeake.

[Pete]

Certain companies are vastly overpriced. Other companies are priced at virtually nothing. Keep in mind, the stay at home doesn't hurt everyone and there are international and foreign companies not under quarantine.

I'm talking about the Dow and S&P and NASDAQ which are still relatively high.

Every single country in the world has been hit by this in a big way.

[Edmond Hausfrau]

The stay at home mainly hurts people who don't have "white collar" jobs, where stay at home is not available.
Saw a report yesterday that 40% of the people out of work in USA right now were the 40K and under earners.

[mugofbeer]

I'm talking about the Dow and S&P and NASDAQ which are still relatively high.

Every single country in the world has been hit by this in a big way.

I am too. Mathematically, if most companies are fairly priced but certain ones which have an over weighting in those indices are significantly overpriced, it results in a situation where the "markets" - the indices, are overpriced. We are in agreement but it's only a relatively few companies that are truly overvalued due to how the DOW and the S&P 500 are weighted indices.

[gopokes88]

I'm talking about the Dow and S&P and NASDAQ which are still relatively high.

Every single country in the world has been hit by this in a big way.

With interest rates at 0 or negative, there's not where else for the money to go. It's why bitcoin is surging.

[Edmond Hausfrau]

I saw where the Lyric Theater laid off all its staff and contract players and the artistic director Michael Baron said hoped for earlier, but right now earliest show will be "A Christmas Carol" in the Plaza theater. It got me thinking about Broadway being closed til September. All of the cultural events that are just gone. It feels weird to not hear about upcoming plays or shows. It's like someone stole our coming attractions reel.

[Pete]

^

Same with live concerts and of course, sports.

That's just revenue that is gone forever and will leave big economic holes in lots of ways.

Dow is way up again today; there seems to be an extreme disconnect between the major indexes and the actual economy.

[Bunty]

With interest rates at 0 or negative, there's not where else for the money to go. It's why bitcoin is surging.

Rental residential real estate will get you a lot better return than 1% in a year, if all goes well. I don't think price of homes have been falling off a cliff and is likely more stable than bitcoin. High quality stocks that pay an attractive dividend, like Exxon, aren't bad to invest in when the market turns cheap. Not so much now. Don't see how bitcoin would help the economy, especially when it goes down.

[gopokes88]

Rental residential real estate will get you a lot better return than 1% in a year, if all goes well. I don't think price of homes have been falling off a cliff and is likely more stable than bitcoin. High quality stocks that pay an attractive dividend, like Exxon, aren't bad to invest in when the market turns cheap. Not so much now. Don't see how bitcoin would help the economy, especially when it goes down.

Res real estate isn’t exactly a risk free bet.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...-rent.amp.html

The point wasn’t bitcoin helps the economy. The point was there’s no where else except stocks to pour money into. Some is flowing into Bitcoin and gold as off shoots.

[AP]

I guess the economists were just as wrong as the scientists. Hopefully, we continue to climb out of this.

The Labor Department on Friday reported that the economy added 2.5 million jobs in May, and the unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent from 14.7 percent.

Economists had predicted that May would be the "trough" of the coronavirus-related unemployment dip, saying there may be as many as 8 million jobs lost with unemployment hitting 20 percent.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/5...n-unemployment

[PhiAlpha]

I guess the economists were just as wrong as the scientists. Hopefully, we continue to climb out of this.



https://thehill.com/policy/finance/5...n-unemployment

I feel like the low hanging fruit (furloughs, temp layoffs, etc) should likely make the unemployment levels drop quickly out of the gate as those employees are able to jump back in and then it will level off for awhile until the market recovers as those who’s positions that were permanently eliminated will be slowly absorbed back into the workforce. Hopefully things improve for employers (restaurants,etc) so the quick rehires don’t have to be fired/laid off again after their SBA loans run out. If restaurants and other retail businesses allowed to go back to full capacity fairly quickly...I think things will be fine.

Great to hear some good news for a change!!!

[AP]

I feel like the low hanging fruit (furloughs, temp layoffs, etc) should likely make the unemployment levels drop quickly out of the gate as those employees are able to jump back in and then it will level off for awhile until the market recovers as those who’s positions that were permanently eliminated will be slowly absorbed back into the workforce. Hopefully things improve for employers (restaurants,etc) so the quick rehires don’t have to be fired/laid off again after their SBA loans run out. If restaurants and other retail businesses allowed to go back to full capacity fairly quickly...I think things will be fine.

Great to hear some good news for a change!!!

Hopefully, you've made it through this too, and landed on your feet.

[TheTravellers]

I feel like the low hanging fruit (furloughs, temp layoffs, etc) should likely make the unemployment levels drop quickly out of the gate as those employees are able to jump back in and then it will level off for awhile until the market recovers as those who’s positions that were permanently eliminated will be slowly absorbed back into the workforce. Hopefully things improve for employers (restaurants,etc) so the quick rehires don’t have to be fired/laid off again after their SBA loans run out. If restaurants and other retail businesses allowed to go back to full capacity fairly quickly...I think things will be fine.

Great to hear some good news for a change!!!

Even if they're allowed to fully open, doesn't mean they'll actually be full when that happens, may take a while. Personally, we're not going to eat inside at a restaurant for a few weeks, at the very least. We usually only eat out once (maybe twice) a week, so our not eating out isn't a huge impact, unlike others who do restaurants 10 times/weekly. We have been doing takeout, though (and tipping 20%), so at least we're doing our little bit to help.

[Pete]

Keep in mind that restaurants, hotels and retail stores have already hired back everyone they need; typically about half of what they had before.

They had to hire people back due to the federal loan constraints but that money will run out and unless demand picks up pretty drastically, I would not expect another big surge in employment.

[PhiAlpha]

Hopefully, you've made it through this too, and landed on your feet.

Thank you sir. Things finally look like they’re starting to improve. There may actually be some positives that some out of this for me if oil can climb back a little further and remain consistent...a big ask for sure but there’s a chance!

[catch22]

I just can't understand some of the policies in place. They seemingly make little logical sense and just makes doing anything at all a pain in the ass. I'm tired of it. Seems like in states that have opened up, their cases aren't increasing at any significantly higher rate than when everything was shut down. I took an antibody test the other day, I was confident I have been exposed to it - test result was negative. 30 people that I work with were diagnosed, a couple to the point they were hospitalized. A few of them I had direct contact with just days before their diagnosis. That was too close of a call, that's why I took a voluntary layoff, I didn't want to further expose myself. So I was sure my antibody test would have been positive. Does it not spread as easily as they said? I am not at all raising the conspiracy flag, I think we did the right thing shutting down as the potential was catastrophic, but it seems we got a Cat 2 hurricane instead of the forecast Category 5. I am all for preparing for the worst, but it seems like it's time to just get back to normal.

[catch22]

Thank you sir. Things finally look like they’re starting to improve. There may actually be some positives that some out of this for me if oil can climb back a little further and remain consistent...a big ask for sure but there’s a chance!

Agree with AP - hope you are weathering the storm as well as possible. Hopefully this will just be a blip and the economy can shake this off over the next 12 months. I see you are selling your wind powered investment, are you trading up to an oil tanker?