Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[PoliSciGuy]

I never been a fan of comparing this to the flu. However when you look at the total of number of deaths for people under the age 50 is it much worse than the flu? I see 10 deaths in what 2 months now. So over a 6 month period we would be 30 deaths. Probably about the same as the flu?

Most studies have the IFR (infection fatality rate) as around 0.5% with a decent confidence interval between 0.3% and 0.8%. For comparison, the flu’s IFR is usually 0.05%, so this is at least 10 times worse, possibly up to 20 times worse

https://twitter.com/vprasadmdmph/sta...477842434?s=21

[kukblue1]

Most studies have the IFR (infection fatality rate) as around 0.5% with a decent confidence interval between 0.3% and 0.8%. For comparison, the flu’s IFR is usually 0.05%, so this is at least 10 times worse, possibly up to 20 times worse

https://twitter.com/vprasadmdmph/sta...477842434?s=21

https://justthenews.com/politics-pol...OrfUEJ3A34wzII

Bottom line is we really have not clue. Right now the death rate is just based of confirmed cases.

[PoliSciGuy]

https://justthenews.com/politics-pol...OrfUEJ3A34wzII

Bottom line is we really have not clue. Right now the death rate is just based of confirmed cases.

No, we have a pretty good idea. Please look at actual peer-reviewed data rather than *squints* justthenews.com

[kukblue1]

No, we have a pretty good idea. Please look at actual peer-reviewed data rather than *squints* justthenews.com

https://www.biospace.com/article/mul...han-expected-/ I don't think we do. We can agree to disagree. I don't even think the test are accurate either. See stories all the time of people testing negative 3 or 4 times before testing positive. It's really the Age. I was just looking at people under the age 50 and I'm not trying to throw grandma under the bus. This is a horrible virus for older generation. I was just looking at the under 50 age group that is all.

In Italy for example the Death rate under 40 is .01% .04% 40-50 Flu like numbers was all i'm trying to figure out? We need to protect the older generation. Give them the money and bail outs to stay home and stay protected.

[PoliSciGuy]

https://www.biospace.com/article/mul...han-expected-/ I don't think we do. We can agree to disagree. I don't even think the test are accurate either. See stories all the time of people testing negative 3 or 4 times before testing positive.

Despite how the name may sound, biospace.com is not a peer reviewed website either, nor does it do any original research or anything. The site I posted collects the actual peer reviewed studies to show what the IFR is, and again those are pretty participate robust and indicate that this thing is 10 to 20 times more deadly than the flu. There are no reputable studies out there that say this is anywhere close to the flu’s mortality.

[catcherinthewry]

In Italy for example the Death rate under 40 is .01% .04% 40-50 Flu like numbers was all i'm trying to figure out?

So when you don't like the numbers you say we really don't have a clue, but when you find some that fit your narrative you cite them like they're the gospel. Make up your mind.

[kukblue1]

Despite how the name may sound, biospace.com is not a peer reviewed website either, nor does it do any original research or anything. The site I posted collects the actual peer reviewed studies to show what the IFR is, and again those are pretty participate robust and indicate that this thing is 10 to 20 times more deadly than the flu. There are no reputable studies out there that say this is anywhere close to the flu’s mortality.

I get where your coming from. I was just looking at it by age group. My friend had to go back to work this week. 64 with COPD but SS won't pay him enough to stay home. Those are they type of people we need to look at giving extra money too and protect. Not the healthy 35 year old . JMO

[Bill Robertson]

I get where your coming from. I was just looking at it by age group. My friend had to go back to work this week. 64 with COPD but SS won't pay him enough to stay home. Those are they type of people we need to look at giving extra money too and protect. Not the healthy 35 year old . JMO

I ‘m glad to read this. Honestly the way I read the first couple posts regarding over or under 50 it really sounded like you were saying anyone over 50 didn’t matter. And from a couple other posts I wasn’t alone.

[kukblue1]

I ‘m glad to read this. Honestly the way I read the first couple posts regarding over or under 50 it really sounded like you were saying anyone over 50 didn’t matter. And from a couple other posts I wasn’t alone.

No i'm totally for protecting the older population. I think we kind of are going about this all wrong. The death rate is so low for the under 50 if you will. Let them out but practice social distancing but let them work. Let them keep the economy going. Heck those NBA players still were going to play even with the virus cause they still felt good. Keep the older population home and use bail out money for them. Keep them home and away from the grand-kids. Give them the extra money to stay home.

We totally failed at protecting nursing homes

[BBatesokc]

.... I think we kind of are going about this all wrong. The death rate is so low for the under 50 if you will. Let them out but practice social distancing but let them work. Let them keep the economy going. ...
We totally failed at protecting nursing homes

That pretty much mirrors my opinion - and appears to mirror a significant percentage of the population, if you step outside and have a look around. Spend stimulus keeping those most at risk sheltered (voluntarily) until we hopefully find a vaccine or substantive treatment plan or prevention. But don't lock down the whole country and then start throwing money at it.

I personally don't care if it's equal or 100x worse than the flu. This entire pandemic has been handled miserably in my opinion - both on the part of the government, 'experts' and the population. Hopefully we've learned something, but I doubt it.

[soonerguru]

I never been a fan of comparing this to the flu. However when you look at the total of number of deaths for people under the age 50 is it much worse than the flu? I see 10 deaths in what 2 months now. So over a 6 month period we would be 30 deaths. Probably about the same as the flu?

It is not just about deaths. This disease does a number on people, many of whom end up with permanent lung damage, kidney failure, etc. Young people too.

This line of argument belies the seriousness of this disease for all involved, young and old.

[jn1780]

No i'm totally for protecting the older population. I think we kind of are going about this all wrong. The death rate is so low for the under 50 if you will. Let them out but practice social distancing but let them work. Let them keep the economy going. Heck those NBA players still were going to play even with the virus cause they still felt good. Keep the older population home and use bail out money for them. Keep them home and away from the grand-kids. Give them the extra money to stay home.

We totally failed at protecting nursing homes

We needed a sanatorium model for nursing homes. If you work there, you stay there at a higher rate of pay. Don't like it, you find a new job. This is a "war" after all.

[Greggo71]

It is not just about deaths. This disease does a number on people, many of whom end up with permanent lung damage, kidney failure, etc. Young people too.

This line of argument belies the seriousness of this disease for all involved, young and old.

The constant moving of the goal posts gets a little exhausting - at some point we all have to agree the worst is behind us and begin living our lives again.

[Pete]

Updated for Tuesday:

[David]

The constant moving of the goal posts gets a little exhausting - at some point we all have to agree the worst is behind us and begin living our lives again.

What nonsense. Expressing concern about potential future medical issues we've learned are possible over the course of the pandemic so far isn't moving any goalposts, it's responding like a rational human being to new information. Maybe you are looking forward to the possible lung damage, but I suspect the rest of us aren't.

[kukblue1]

Updated for Tuesday:

No Big Tuesday Jump this is a good thing but are we counting all the test? Has anyone figured out if it's only Lab only test?

[PoliSciGuy]

Some good context for the numbers, from here https://coronavirus.health.ok.gov/ar...d-19-05192020:

As highlighted in the Governor’s EO report published Monday evening, the State has processed since Saturday 16,308 specimens tested for COVID-19, which is an average of 5,400 tests processed a day. As a result, the percentage of positives derived from Oklahoma’s total COVID-19 tests has declined again to an all-time low of 4.4%.

[Greggo71]

What nonsense. Expressing concern about potential future medical issues we've learned are possible over the course of the pandemic so far isn't moving any goalposts, it's responding like a rational human being to new information. Maybe you are looking forward to the possible lung damage, but I suspect the rest of us aren't.

You should probably read the comment I was responding to, if that's your thing. Expressing concern is fine, but attempting to justify an extension to the panic, based on non-quantifiable concerns is clearly wrong headed - please point me to real evidence justifying this approach, until then it is more of the fear based reasoning.

[catcherinthewry]

at some point we all have to agree the worst is behind us and begin living our lives again.

No we don't have to agree the worst is behind us. The 1918 flu had a second wave that was much worse than the first. The fact is is that the virus is still out there and there is no vaccine for it. As long as that's the case and there are still sizable numbers of cases we are all susceptible to contracting Covid-19. I'm going to continue to follow CDC guidelines and in doing so minimize my risk.

[David]

You should probably read the comment I was responding to, if that's your thing. Expressing concern is fine, but attempting to justify an extension to the panic, based on non-quantifiable concerns is clearly wrong headed - please point me to real evidence justifying this approach, until then it is more of the fear based reasoning.

You mean the one that mentioned lung damage, which I also called out as a thing to be concerned about? Wow, it's almost like I did read that comment.

[floyd the barber]

No Big Tuesday Jump this is a good thing but are we counting all the test? Has anyone figured out if it's only Lab only test?

Six deaths aren't a "big Tuesday jump?"

Unbelievable.

[jn1780]

Good news out of South Korea. At least immunity doesn't appear to immediately go away.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexand.../#c82b1a770a6c

[Ronnie Jackson]

Six deaths aren't a "big Tuesday jump?"

Unbelievable.

not all of those deaths occurred within the last 24 hrs. there is a lag in reporting, as has been discussed.

I’d say the 3-day and 7-day averages are trending in the right direction. We’re in the back end of the Supercycle.

[jn1780]

It is not just about deaths. This disease does a number on people, many of whom end up with permanent lung damage, kidney failure, etc. Young people too.

This line of argument belies the seriousness of this disease for all involved, young and old.

What are the statistical numbers on this? How prevalent is this among all the infections? There is always a new symptom of the week, but I never see the statistics.

I'm type 1 diabetic, and one of the theories is that type diabetes is caused by an autoimmune response to some virus. If that theory is correct, I bet a lot of people was exposed to same virus that triggered diabetes in me.

[Bill Robertson]

Six deaths aren't a "big Tuesday jump?"

Unbelievable.

Compared to many Tuesday numbers where we assumed they were catching up on weekend data this is not like a lot Tuesday jumps have been.