Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[Pete]

The flu shot is a hit or miss. They have to make it so far in advance and “guess” which of the 100 strains to make and only make 2 or 3 strains per year. Its very low percent in hitting it right.

It's true it can vary, but in most years the CDC estimates through vaccine the disease is reduced by 40-60% in the entire U.S. general population, and that's with only about 30% of adults getting the shot.

I get a jab every year and haven't had the flu in over 3 decades and when I did get it, I was not in a regular habit of being vaccinated. Yes, people still come down it with but when was the last time you worked somewhere when there was a big outbreak?

Flu shots aren't perfect but like most vaccines, they work. Using "low percentage" to describe any part of the flu vaccination process is just plain false.

[Pete]

It's time for Herd immunity. Enough said.

To most this has come to mean, "Everyone else can be careful and take all the precautions outlined by hard science including getting vaccinated, and I'll do nothing but hopefully benefit."

[catcherinthewry]

To most this has come to mean, "Everyone else can be careful and take all the precautions outlined by hard science including getting vaccinated, and I'll do nothing but hopefully benefit."

Yep.

[Edmond Hausfrau]

It's true it can vary, but in most years the CDC estimates through vaccine the disease is reduced by 40-60% in the entire U.S. general population, and that's with only about 30% of adults getting the shot.

I get a jab every year and haven't had the flu in over 3 decades and when I did get it, I was not in a regular habit of being vaccinated. Yes, people still come down it with but when was the last time you worked somewhere when there was a big outbreak?

Flu shots aren't perfect but like most vaccines, they work. Using "low percentage" to describe any part of the flu vaccination process is just plain false.

Flu shots do work, and thank you for getting yours. I worked a flu outbreak in Washington state last year and it wasn't fun.
Pediatricians are starting to report drop offs on kids who are due for regular immunization schedule. I'm not sure what our baseline rate is for kids in OKC, but it bears watching. The last thing we need is a measles outbreak like California saw last year.

[Pete]

Numbers updated for Monday:

[kukblue1]

Numbers updated for Monday:

24? How Big of a jump do we see tomorrow? Over 150 would be my guess.

[EastCoastGator]

24? How Big of a jump do we see tomorrow? Over 150 would be my guess.

Damn bruh, it almost seems like your'e rooting for more? What's the point of your guesstimation; do you work at the fair?

[jdizzle]

24? How Big of a jump do we see tomorrow? Over 150 would be my guess.

I agree with EC Gator. Maybe the virus is lessening, for many different reasons in Oklahoma.

Or maybe you are right. Just not sure why people are rooting for an increase in cases. Not you, in particular. I have friends who are almost rooting for them, so things will close (since they feel things reopened too quickly).

[OKC Guy]

Only 4 states are at or above R1, and they are 1.00, 1.01, 1.04 and 1.05 (so barely above). 46 states are below.

Oklahoma broke below 1.00 on Mar 29 at .99 and has been below ever since

Rt Covid-19
These are up-to-date values for Rt, a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading

https://rt.live/

[kukblue1]

Damn bruh, it almost seems like your'e rooting for more? What's the point of your guesstimation; do you work at the fair?

Not cheering for anything just spitting Truth which I know a lot of people don't want to hear. They has always been a jump in numbers from Monday to Tuesday. April 27th-28th. Look at April 8th and 9th. Even though I think that was a Wednesday Thursday after a very low number we had a huge jump the next day. I hope not I hope we stay under 100 for a long time but I'm not going to get shocked if it's near 150 tomorrow.

[Mott]

Here’s a very good article from Santa Fe New Mexican on understanding growth rates of Covid-19, scroll done to look at OK
https://www.santafenewmexican.com/ne...26e810cbf.html

[OKC Guy]

Here’s a very good article from Santa Fe New Mexican on understanding growth rates of Covid-19, scroll done to look at OK
https://www.santafenewmexican.com/ne...26e810cbf.html

My opinion is his data is flawed because he does not account for increased testing. Increased testing will reflect more cases, but does not mean its spreading

[Brad72]

Here’s a very good article from Santa Fe New Mexican on understanding growth rates of Covid-19, scroll done to look at OK
https://www.santafenewmexican.com/ne...26e810cbf.html

Solution: Don't test anyone and there will be a zero-percent growth. Congratulations, you can now open your state.

[soonerguru]

My opinion is his data is flawed because he does not account for increased testing. Increased testing will reflect more cases, but does not mean its spreading

Basically, all of the data is flawed. We have conducted 96,000 tests. But how many people were retested multiple times? My coworker contracted the virus and retested four times herself.

There are many metrics to analyze. I'm glad we have conducted 96,000 tests. But that is like 2% of Oklahoma's population, and that doesn't tell us how many individuals were actually tested.

Witnessing what is happening in Texas County is alarming. They had like 10 cases a couple of weeks ago and now have nearly 500. It just shows how quickly things can change.

Perhaps we will learn that the virus is most lethal for spreading right when it first reaches a community, as it did in OKC in late February / Early March. However, in other countries where it appears they have reduced new transmissions to a greater degree than we have in Oklahoma, it has come back.

The point is we don't really know. What we do know is there are an awful lot of people acting like this thing is over and doing absolutely nothing to mitigate the spread of it, so it will be very surprising if we do not begin to see a new spike in the next week or so.

I suspect that almost everyone who posts on this forum is still practicing safety.

[Pete]

Updated for Tuesday:

[PoliSciGuy]

Updated for Tuesday:

I really wish they reported total # of tests done or what percentage of tests came back as positive. While rising raw number of cases isn't great, if it's due to a significant increase in our testing it's actually a bit of good news and adds important context.

[AP]

It doesn't really add much context though. One person test positive and goes into quarantine, they have to have two negative tests to show they've recovered. You have one person that has taken 3 test and 2 show negative.

[Ohwiseone]

What is worrying me is that hospitalizations went up from 177 on Friday to 180.

While 3 isn't a massive increase, still something to watch.

[PoliSciGuy]

It doesn't really add much context though. One person test positive and goes into quarantine, they have to have two negative tests to show they've recovered. You have one person that has taken 3 test and 2 show negative.

It adds a ton of context. If we see an increase of 100 cases with, say 5,000 tests that's substantially different from seeing an increase of 100 cases with 50,000 tests. It drastically changes the calculus of how widespread the virus is and what the underlying cause of case increase is. If the root cause is we're just testing more, that's good news! If the root cause is that more and more people are becoming positive with the same number of tests, that's alarming! The former enables us to reopen sooner, the latter requires us to probably re-implement lockdown measures.

[HangryHippo]

It adds a ton of context. If we see an increase of 100 cases with, say 5,000 tests that's substantially different from seeing an increase of 100 cases with 50,000 tests. It drastically changes the calculus of how widespread the virus is and what the underlying cause of case increase is. If the root cause is we're just testing more, that's good news! If the root cause is that more and more people are becoming positive with the same number of tests, that's alarming! The former enables us to reopen sooner, the latter requires us to probably re-implement lockdown measures.

Do they breakdown the number of tests that are repeats on the same people? That's key information as well.

[jn1780]

Basically, all of the data is flawed. We have conducted 96,000 tests. But how many people were retested multiple times? My coworker contracted the virus and retested four times herself.

There are many metrics to analyze. I'm glad we have conducted 96,000 tests. But that is like 2% of Oklahoma's population, and that doesn't tell us how many individuals were actually tested.

Witnessing what is happening in Texas County is alarming. They had like 10 cases a couple of weeks ago and now have nearly 500. It just shows how quickly things can change.

Perhaps we will learn that the virus is most lethal for spreading right when it first reaches a community, as it did in OKC in late February / Early March. However, in other countries where it appears they have reduced new transmissions to a greater degree than we have in Oklahoma, it has come back.

The point is we don't really know. What we do know is there are an awful lot of people acting like this thing is over and doing absolutely nothing to mitigate the spread of it, so it will be very surprising if we do not begin to see a new spike in the next week or so.

I suspect that almost everyone who posts on this forum is still practicing safety.

There has been a lot of outbreaks at meat processing plants. The Seaboard Farms plant is a vector for Texas county.

[Bill Robertson]

I really wish they reported total # of tests done or what percentage of tests came back as positive. While rising raw number of cases isn't great, if it's due to a significant increase in our testing it's actually a bit of good news and adds important context.

The OSDH does list the daily number of tests reported in the daily “Executive Report”. The graph below is a 5 day running average of number of positive results per 1000 test results.
o

[PoliSciGuy]

The OSDH does list the daily number of tests reported in the daily “Executive Report”. The graph below is a 5 day running average of number of positive results per 1000 test results.
o

Awesome, thank you! And a 3% positivity rate (and dropping) is really good news. If that trend keeps up through the end of the week we may avoid an imminent second wave from reopening

[Ohwiseone]

Also, another bit of good news.

The recovery numbers were higher than the new infection numbers. I think this the third time in the last week this has happened.

[mkjeeves]

Press release today OCCHD

Spike in positive COVID-19 cases attributed to long-term care facilities
(Oklahoma City) - Today’s increase in positive COVID-19 cases in Oklahoma County is directly attributed to COVID-19 outbreaks at three long-term care facilities.
“We’ve expected outbreaks to occur in nursing facilities, and have been driving testing and staff resources to these facilities since mid-April as part of Governor Stitt’s initiative to test all long-term care residents and staff by the end of May,” said Executive Director of the Oklahoma City-County Health Department (OCCHD), Dr. Patrick McGough.
Positive case counts in the general population trend up and down dependent upon lab capacity, and the frequency of the lab reporting the results. On some days, hundreds of lab results will be reported in one day, which can drive positive rates up, and another day the labs may have very few results to report, driving case counts down.
Oklahoma is one of the few states that includes long-term care COVID-19 test results in overall case statistics, which do not necessarily reflect the impact of COVID-19 in the general population.
“As our long-term care testing grows, we expect to see increased positive case counts, which is not unique to Oklahoma County,” added Dr. McGough. “We are closely watching hospitalization rates as a key indicator of how the virus is spreading in the general population, and so far this month, hospitalization rates continue trending downward, which is a good sign.”
OCCHD has a team of 24 individuals currently sampling residents and staff in facilities across Oklahoma County.

https://www.occhd.org/COVID-19