Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[OKC Talker]

Pete posts the state's numbers, not OKC. You see what is happening in the panhandle? That is where a lot of the new cases are. OKC I think in the actually meeting those guidelines. Holt has been very proactive throughout this, and wouldn't judge numbers just to reopen.

You might want to monitor https://looker-dashboards.ok.gov/emb...election=OCCHD instead. It gives you numbers for the whole state or specifically for an area like the panhandle or OKC, and updates them to the "date of onset" instead of the date a case was reported to the health department.

[Bunty]

Agree with above. Some psychologists would also argue that wearing a mask is a tangible reminder of a behavior modification i.e. it reminds you to physically distance. Similar to a Fitbit on your wrist reminding you to move more.

Gov. Cuomo said that New York health care workers have a lower infection rate than the general population, which suggests that masks do some good.

[OKC Guy]

You're not out of line, just not seeing anyone advocating for the complete elimination of the virus before moving forward again.

Anyway, we aren't in disagreement just don't like to see extreme statements on either side of this and it's a direct function of the polarization of this country. Was bad enough before, now it's downright dangerous.

Wanted to post this from our biggest state:

Gov. Newsom: California not going 'back to normal' until there is a vaccine
By Andrew Mark Miller
May 7, 2020 - 1:27 PM

California Gov. Gavin Newsom told residents in his state not to expect life to go back to normal from the coronavirus pandemic until after a vaccine is rolled out.

“We’re not going back to normal," Newsom said during a Tuesday press conference. "It’s a new normal, with adaptations and modifications, until we get to immunity and a vaccine.”

Newsom added in a statement that while the state is moving forward to “Stage 2” of the reopening process, people will still have to cope with other restrictions imposed by the state going forward.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...mpression=true
—-

So it sounds like he is going to keep some restrictions until vaccine. My guess is the big money Hollywood and Disney and sports will fight him on this.

[FighttheGoodFight]

I am thinking no state will have a full "normal" until we have a vaccine. I don't see large 20k sporting events occurring until late next year barring some sort of super effective treatment that is widely available.

[OKC Guy]

I am thinking no state will have a full "normal" until we have a vaccine. I don't see large 20k sporting events occurring until late next year barring some sort of super effective treatment that is widely available.

I agree to an extent and think it will be state by state. But I also think we’ll have fans in stands by this fall. High School football, Thunder, OU/OSU football and many others. Even local soccer team.

[jerrywall]

I am thinking no state will have a full "normal" until we have a vaccine. I don't see large 20k sporting events occurring until late next year barring some sort of super effective treatment that is widely available.

This. There's a big difference between wanting to maintain the lockdowns until there's a vaccine, which no one serious has argued for that I've seen, and knowing that there may need to be common sense changes to behavior and maybe some limitations on large gatherings. I'm as upset as anyone that I can't use my 4th row floor Elton John tickets in July... but I understand it, and I have no desire to pack into a crowded arena until the the situation is significantly different than it is right now.

One thing that will be a part of everyday life, I think going forward, is people in masks. It won't be everyone, but even once a vaccine is out, and we're mostly back to normal, folks who are feeling a little sick or have a cough or whatever will be more likely to wear a mask out of courtesy to others. Hopefully this, the increased handwashing, avoiding unnecessary physical contact (handshakes) and such will continue and become part of our lives and habits. This will help curtail future potential pandemics.

[FighttheGoodFight]

This. There's a big difference between wanting to maintain the lockdowns until there's a vaccine, which no one serious has argued for that I've seen, and knowing that there may need to be common sense changes to behavior and maybe some limitations on large gatherings. I'm as upset as anyone that I can't use my 4th row floor Elton John tickets in July... but I understand it, and I have no desire to pack into a crowded arena until the the situation is significantly different than it is right now.

One thing that will be a part of everyday life, I think going forward, is people in masks. It won't be everyone, but even once a vaccine is out, and we're mostly back to normal, folks who are feeling a little sick or have a cough or whatever will be more likely to wear a mask out of courtesy to others. Hopefully this, the increased handwashing, avoiding unnecessary physical contact (handshakes) and such will continue and become part of our lives and habits. This will help curtail future potential pandemics.

I really hope what I read on comments about not wearing a facemask since it "infringes on my rights" is just a minority. I would think as a courtesy to my fellow Americans even if it only gave us 10% less chance of spreading this virus that we could all wear masks.

I feel like wearing a mask is the least I can do and I was hoping that we could all band together and do a simple thing like wear a mask in public indoor spaces.

[SoonerDave]

One thing I'd respectfully like to offer in terms of interpreting the test data is the following:

The daily release of new positives only reflects a delta relative to the previous day's positives. That's not the number used to determine a "flattening." If you dig more deeply into the epidemiological extract of the data, you'll find that ODH is actually mapping these cases back to their *date of symptom onset*, not *date test returned*. The number of positives reported on a given daily result is a bit of a false flag in that it could vary greatly depending on the total number of tests returned, whether one lab (for example) might have a delay in returning a cluster of results, etc. The mapping back to date-of-symptom-onset, combined with *current* hospitalizations, are two key metrics, and they're the ones showing the decreases. I am frustrated that, at least as far as I've seen so far, no one in local media is pointing out this fact. If I've missed it, my apologies.

Honestly, I was very impressed with the depth of data in the ODH extract. After they released that mortifyingly wrong projection back in early April of 9,000+ confirmed cases by May 1, I was very skeptical of their data. As with any situation, we're getting smarter as we're going along.

I'm also concerned about the apparent expectation by some (not here, just a broad observation) that we shouldn't reopen society *period* until the virus is *completely gone*. I just don't see how that's even a rational option. Herd immunity is still likely months away, if it will ever actually happen. A vaccine and/or curative are similarly distant. Somehow, we're going to have to figure out how to manage life with this ugly beast for a while. I won't pretend to have the wisdom of Solomon on the "right" way to do it, but we've got to try something.

[OKC Talker]

One thing I'd respectfully like to offer in terms of interpreting the test data is the following:
The daily release of new positives only reflects a delta relative to the previous day's positives. That's not the number used to determine a "flattening." If you dig more deeply into the epidemiological extract of the data, you'll find that ODH is actually mapping these cases back to their *date of symptom onset*, not *date test returned*. The number of positives reported on a given daily result is a bit of a false flag in that it could vary greatly depending on the total number of tests returned, whether one lab (for example) might have a delay in returning a cluster of results, etc. The mapping back to date-of-symptom-onset, combined with *current* hospitalizations, are two key metrics, and they're the ones showing the decreases. I am frustrated that, at least as far as I've seen so far, no one in local media is pointing out this fact. If I've missed it, my apologies.

Be careful interpreting the "date of onset" charts. Fewer cases in the past few days probably just means they haven't been reported yet. The numbers for this week will fill in as they're backdated next week. The 7-day trend line is what's more important and that actually shows cases increasing.

https://looker-dashboards.ok.gov/embed/dashboards/70

[dankrutka]

I agree to an extent and think it will be state by state. But I also think we’ll have fans in stands by this fall. High School football, Thunder, OU/OSU football and many others. Even local soccer team.

It's hard to imagine there will be sports with fans this year. First, I cannot imagine high schools taking even the legal risk of holding events where people could get sick and some die. There's a lot of older people and unhealthy people involved in high school sports. Schools tend to be very careful. The NBA won't likely even start next season until Christmas or January and they are also being very careful... I don't expect them to have regular games until there's a vaccine. We'll see how things go, but I don't expect spectator sports with spectators until 2021 at the earliest.

[SoonerDave]

Yes, but that trendline also shows a clear periodicity to it; if that periodicity disappears, that's a problem.

[SoonerDave]

It's hard to imagine there will be sports with fans this year. First, I cannot imagine high schools taking even the legal risk of holding events where people could get sick and some die. There's a lot of older people and unhealthy people involved in high school sports. Schools tend to be very careful. The NBA won't likely even start next season until Christmas or January and they are also being very careful... I don't expect them to have regular games until there's a vaccine. We'll see how things go, but I don't expect spectator sports with spectators until 2021 at the earliest.

Respectfully disagree, at least at levels beyond HS. Major sports are already operating under the assumption seasons will go on or resume in some form even without fans. At the college level, some if not most student-athletes can get better access to medical care on campus than at home. Further, particularly as it relates to college athletics (and football in particular), there is so much rights revenue at stake they can't afford not to consider the prospect of games with no or very limited fans.

I have read reports that indicate NFL teams are already laying out plans to have games at venues with about 1/4 fan capacity, establishing protocols for fan entry/exit, one-way walking paths, concessions limits. One report in particular suggested that the Miami Dolphins were looking at games with no more than 15K fans. They are willing to put these plans in place so they can have a product to offer to the networks who have paid so handsomely for those broadcast fees, and those won't go away without a struggle.

At the college level, I think the restoration to normal is going to be decidedly uneven. Some colleges will play, some won't. I don't think every team's schedule will be 100% played; I have serious questions whether OU will play at Army, nor do I necessarily even think OU-Texas will happen at the Cotton Bowl in a full-normal condition. I think it will be *played*, but perhaps at a different venue with very limited seating. And I think we'd all be fooling ourselves if those discussions haven't already started.

Now, that said, you could end up being 100% right, but I just can't see the presence of a confirmed vaccine being the one and only litmus test for sports returning in some form.

[soonerguru]

I agree to an extent and think it will be state by state. But I also think we’ll have fans in stands by this fall. High School football, Thunder, OU/OSU football and many others. Even local soccer team.

I cannot imagine any of that until 2021 at the earliest.

[SoonerDave]

I cannot imagine any of that until 2021 at the earliest.

I just don't see all sports completely shut down until next year. Different form, controlled environments, absolutely. None at all? No way.

[SoonerDave]

Data from OHD shows 94 new cases, and the first day-to-day uptick in current hospitalizations in several days. That's not good.

[OKC Guy]

I cannot imagine any of that until 2021 at the earliest.

Its hard to see things while in the middle of crisis. Keep in mind its only been just shy of 2 months it wasn’t really on radar until middle and even late Mar. Yet football is 4 months away. We adapt pretty fast and I think will adapt to sports and fans as well. So much can and will change in that 4 months and people want their life back. Sports is a huge part of it.

[Jersey Boss]

I just don't see all sports completely shut down until next year. Different form, controlled environments, absolutely. None at all? No way.

Both Dan and Sooner were making the point of spectators at spectator sports. Neither took the position of no sports at all until a vaccine was in place.

[BoulderSooner]

it would shock me if there are not fans in the stands at OU football games this fall ..

[OKC Guy]

This topic was briefly discussed here 3 or so weeks ago and now MSM is starting to discuss more and more: Back then very few wanted to admit this cost and brushed it off as hyperbole.

Coronavirus pandemic may lead to 75,000 "deaths of despair" from suicide, drug and alcohol abuse, study says

May 8, 2020 / 11:12 AM
By Serena Gordon

COVID-19 has directly claimed tens of thousands of U.S. lives, but conditions stemming from the novel coronavirus — rampant unemployment, isolation and an uncertain future — could lead to 75,000 deaths from drug or alcohol abuse and suicide, new research suggests.

Deaths from these causes are known as "deaths of despair." And the COVID-19 pandemic may be accelerating conditions that lead to such deaths.

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/cor...ssion=true#app

[OKC Guy]

This is so different comparing states. Wow:

Population:

Florida: 21,500,000
New York: 19,500,000

Coronavirus cases:

FL: 38,828
NY: 337,421

Coronavirus deaths:

FL: 1,600
NY: 26,365

[Martin]

This is so different comparing states. Wow:

Population:

Florida: 21,500,000
New York: 19,500,000

Coronavirus cases:

FL: 38,828
NY: 337,421

Coronavirus deaths:

FL: 1,600
NY: 26,365

probably due primarily to this:

average population density for each state:
florida state: 353 people/sq. mile
new york state: 421 people/sq. mile

population density for each state's largest city (by population):
miami: 12,139 people/sq. mile
new york city: 26,403 people/sq. mile

[Bunty]

It's hard to imagine there will be sports with fans this year. First, I cannot imagine high schools taking even the legal risk of holding events where people could get sick and some die. There's a lot of older people and unhealthy people involved in high school sports. Schools tend to be very careful. The NBA won't likely even start next season until Christmas or January and they are also being very careful... I don't expect them to have regular games until there's a vaccine. We'll see how things go, but I don't expect spectator sports with spectators until 2021 at the earliest.

Due to its inability to attract business and industry, Stillwater relies on game days for a significant part of its economy, so I don't see Stillwater major attempt to lead the way in trying to stop OSU from allowing fans in for games.

Maybe an effective drug can be found to greatly reduce deaths from COVID-19 ahead of a vaccine. It will be interesting how things next year turn out.

[OKC Guy]

probably due primarily to this:

average population density for each state:
florida state: 353 people/sq. mile
new york state: 421 people/sq. mile

population density for each state's largest city (by population):
miami: 12,139 people/sq. mile
new york city: 26,403 people/sq. mile

Oh I agree plus NYC has subways they never shut down.

But Florida has a huge elderly population and thats been the target of most deaths. Rare to see such a disparity in stats like this.

Will be a good many studies done about this in the years ahead

[Bunty]

probably due primarily to this:

average population density for each state:
florida state: 353 people/sq. mile
new york state: 421 people/sq. mile

population density for each state's largest city (by population):
miami: 12,139 people/sq. mile
new york city: 26,403 people/sq. mile

Maybe the many more deaths in NYC are due to people getting exposed to greater amounts of virus at a time, in other words, easier to be around more than one or two persons who are contagious.

[Bunty]

it would shock me if there are not fans in the stands at OU football games this fall ..

I won't be shocked if they're there wearing masks. Probably some business is looking forward to selling a bunch of them with OU or Boomer Sooner stamped on them.