Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[Bill Robertson]

Do regular (not HEPA) HVAC (commercial or residential) units have filtering that will actually grab and trap virus particles? And do we even know for certain how contagious airborne coronavirus is or if it's transmitted primarily by touch or droplets/aerosol, or how much viral load has to be ingested before someone gets sick?

They would catch some percentage. Most commercial units would have MERV 8 or MERV 11 filters. If my understanding of N ratings of masks is right an 8 would be about the same as an N45 mask and 11 would be about the same as an N65.

[Bill Robertson]

With more testing sites opening, I know of at least 2 this week, the new case numbers are also likely to go up. Which means more people that have it but would not have been found a month ago are being found now. This is not a bad thing. At least not as bad as the new case number being steady without increased testing.

[Jersey Boss]

At this point I am taking a wait and see on the anti body effectiveness as far as warding off the disease. I read some anecdotal reports from Korea on folks getting it a second time. Also the chicken pox is a virus and those anti bodies certainly do not ward off shingles.

[jn1780]

At this point I am taking a wait and see on the anti body effectiveness as far as warding off the disease. I read some anecdotal reports from Korea on folks getting it a second time. Also the chicken pox is a virus and those anti bodies certainly do not ward off shingles.

So are we willing to close grocery stores and force people to stay home at gunpoint to stop the virus if there are no long term antibodies in order to kill the virus completely? Oklahoma has been on a plateau, for over a month. That seems to be the best we can get with the current level of lock downs. If half the people are running around with no symptoms we are not going to catch them with testing.

I'm diabetic so I would prefer not to get it. But the idea that I'm going to avoid the world entirely for almost two years is crazy. I would rather deal with a significantly higher risk for 2 -3 months than the same lower risk but prolonged over 2 years. Even if I avoided getting it for two years, I would still have to worry about getting insulin because we blew up the economy entirely.

[dankrutka]

Good point. So why is everything still shut? In my view everyone has been to the grocery store often enough so everyone has been exposed most likely.

Have they? I have not been inside any type of store or business in 6 weeks. Moreover, every person who has entered a store is not immediately infected. We've got to quit with the overgeneralizing. There is so much nuance to this crisis.

[dankrutka]

The argument for herd immunity is neither simple nor clear. First, we don't even know what immunity looks like yet. Who has immunity and for how long? It's a big unknown. Second, we don't know what "recovery" looks like. Are there long-term health risks? Could people have long-term lung damage or other health problems?

Again, people keep proposing herd immunity as some kind of inevitable outcome and solution, but we don't know enough yet to even know whether that would work... aside from the fact that it would result in a massive number of deaths beyond what's happened. I just wish people would quit with the simplistic solutions. They often do so as some kind of open-the-economy rationalization to address their anxiety, but that's not how you solve a complex problem.

[mkjeeves]

Have they? I have not been inside any type of store or business in 6 weeks. Moreover, every person who has entered a store is not immediately infected. We've got to quit with the overgeneralizing. There is so much nuance to this crisis.

Ditto. Or inside any other business. No plans to do that anytime in the near future either.

[kukblue1]

Here is my break down. They have no clue how many people have this or have had this. How are there near 50,000 negative test? OSDH said Monday that 2,167 Oklahomans have recovered from COVID-19. Nearly 50,000 people have tested negative. If you only getting tested if your showing symptoms why are so many negative? I know it could be other thing but are there really that many sick people walking around with a cough, fever, or shortness of breath? Also symptoms usually show 5-7 days and people usually don't go to the hospital until day 11. https://patient.info/news-and-featur...g-do-they-last So we are a little too so to see it's it's because we have open things up. However go back and what happen around 11 days ago. Payday from the government. People got their checks in the mail and I noticed right away there were way more people out and about. There were others that commented about it also.

[OKCretro]

are we still 2nd to last in testing per state? what about testing per capita? Clearly we do not need as many test as Cali, texas or NY

that was one of the main gripes a few weeks ago.

[Jersey Boss]

So are we willing to close grocery stores and force people to stay home at gunpoint to stop the virus if there are no long term antibodies in order to kill the virus completely? Oklahoma has been on a plateau, for over a month. That seems to be the best we can get with the current level of lock downs. If half the people are running around with no symptoms we are not going to catch them with testing.

I'm diabetic so I would prefer not to get it. But the idea that I'm going to avoid the world entirely for almost two years is crazy. I would rather deal with a significantly higher risk for 2 -3 months than the same lower risk but prolonged over 2 years. Even if I avoided getting it for two years, I would still have to worry about getting insulin because we blew up the economy entirely.

My personal wait and see approach had no mention of or inference of going Kent State on the population.

[TheTravellers]

The argument for herd immunity is neither simple nor clear. First, we don't even know what immunity looks like yet. Who has immunity and for how long? It's a big unknown. ...

Also, how do we get immunity? Hasn't been shown that having it confers immunity, and there's no vaccine to make us (as) immune (as we can get at some future, unknown time).

[Bunty]

We just seen our biggest spike in cases (130) since April 9th, hmmm? Lifting the shelter in place a bit too early, or just a coincidence?

It suggests to me shelter in place isn't working out very well. For the gradual reopening a lot more people had better wear masks combined with social distancing. I will practice what I preach. People in less than good health better not chance it at all by going to stores. I don't see how anyone who has been very sick and suffering before from the flu or strep throat would want to take a chance without a mask. Strep throat is easily treated with antibiotics, but not COVID-19.

If your city is handing out free masks and you need one, take advantage of it. They will quite likely be much better that the crude sew free ones you can make with a handkerchief or old T-shirt. I don't want the transition to normalcy to fail and have to return to the Twilight Zone.

[TheTravellers]

Interesting series of articles written by NYC ER docs.

https://slate.com/technology/2020/04...ctors-log.html

https://slate.com/technology/2020/04...-week-two.html

https://slate.com/technology/2020/04...ronavirus.html

https://slate.com/technology/2020/04...ronavirus.html

[soonerguru]

Good point. So why is everything still shut? In my view everyone has been to the grocery store often enough so everyone has been exposed most likely.

And on the question if it was only those 2 choices I’m choosing Clark Crew over Crest.

"Everyone" has not been to the grocery store. Geez. There are grocery delivery services that have staffed up to meet demand. I haven't in-person shopped for groceries since the first week of April. My wfie has gone to our local Crest at odd hours (and no, it wasn't packed at ), wearing an N95 mask we had laying around from a home remodel.

We also use pickup at Urban Agrarian (you call ahead, give them credit card number over the phone, and they put it in your trunk). They have really good quality Oklahoma local beef, chicken, pork, and of course, amazing veggies and lettuces.

[d-usa]

Here is my break down. They have no clue how many people have this or have had this. How are there near 50,000 negative test? OSDH said Monday that 2,167 Oklahomans have recovered from COVID-19. Nearly 50,000 people have tested negative. If you only getting tested if your showing symptoms why are so many negative? I know it could be other thing but are there really that many sick people walking around with a cough, fever, or shortness of breath? Also symptoms usually show 5-7 days and people usually don't go to the hospital until day 11. https://patient.info/news-and-featur...g-do-they-last So we are a little too so to see it's it's because we have open things up. However go back and what happen around 11 days ago. Payday from the government. People got their checks in the mail and I noticed right away there were way more people out and about. There were others that commented about it also.

Negative tests could be there for a number of reasons, I don’t know how exactly tests are counted but here are some of them:

- Contact/Exposure testing: asymptomatic people being tested because they have contact with a positive case.
- False negatives: symptomatic people with COVID-19 have a negative test result. This is especially problematic with the Rapid Test.
- Repeat tests: I don’t know if the numbers reflect unique tests of unique cases. Some positives get retested to see if the infection clears. Negative rapid tests for symptomatic folks should be retested as a PCR, which could double count that case.
- Screening tests: are some healthcare facilities now texting patients at time of admission for non-COVID related issues? Are prisons testing people prior to release.
Surveillance tests: I think some places have done random surveillance screening to see the number of cases circulating in the community and determine how many are asymptomatic.
Flu season: there isn’t much difference between ILI and CLI so many people probably get tested for both.

Just some of the reasons for testing people who may not be symptomatic, or why some of those negative results may be false negatives.

[Edmond Hausfrau]

"Everyone" has not been to the grocery store. Geez. There are grocery delivery services that have staffed up to meet demand. I haven't in-person shopped for groceries since the first week of April. My wfie has gone to our local Crest at odd hours (and no, it wasn't packed at ), wearing an N95 mask we had laying around from a home remodel.

We also use pickup at Urban Agrarian (you call ahead, give them credit card number over the phone, and they put it in your trunk). They have really good quality Oklahoma local beef, chicken, pork, and of course, amazing veggies and lettuces.

I'm glad to hear about Urban Agrarian service. Is their inventory on their website? I know they try to keep stuff fresh and organic so I imagine the stock turns over fast.

[dankrutka]

I know it could be other thing but are there really that many sick people walking around with a cough, fever, or shortness of breath? Also symptoms usually show 5-7 days and people usually don't go to the hospital until day 11.

This is just another example of the complexity of this virus. The symptoms from infected person to person are incredibly inconsistent and seem to potentially be different by geography or demographic. Some people are completely asympotomatic. Others experience loss of taste and smell. Effective treatments are unclear as there are recent questions about even the role of respirators. While older people seemed primarily vulnerable, age is now less of a factor than we thought as young, obese people are very vulnerable. It also increasingly seems like a lot of people are dying at home from COVID-19 and, of course, Oklahoma is testing so little that little is known.

[PhiAlpha]

If you really believe herd immunity is the only solution then walk the walk and get the virus on purpose. Otherwise, it’s just a way to rationalize putting others in harms way.

No it’s a way to rationalize not guaranteeing the start of a second Great Depression by keeping stay at home orders in effect for another year while we wait for a vaccine.

[Bill Robertson]

Assuming a 2-3 day infection to hospitalization, Tuesday's numbers represent Friday/Saturday? These are usually our highest numbers of hospitalization

37, 27, 31, 36, 24

There seem to be days that they “catch up” with previously unreported stats. Same happened on 4-15 and 4-21. Here’s a graph I put together using Pete’s chart. Each day is a 5 day average (current day and the previous 4). There is a downward trend.

[catcherinthewry]

There seem to be days that they “catch up” with previously unreported stats. Same happened on 4-15 and 4-21. Here’s a graph I put together using Pete’s chart. Each day is a 5 day average (current day and the previous 4). There is a downward trend.

That's very helpful. Could you do one showing hospitalizations?

[OKCRT]

It suggests to me shelter in place isn't working out very well. For the gradual reopening a lot more people had better wear masks combined with social distancing. I will practice what I preach. People in less than good health better not chance it at all by going to stores. I don't see how anyone who has been very sick and suffering before from the flu or strep throat would want to take a chance without a mask. Strep throat is easily treated with antibiotics, but not COVID-19.

If your city is handing out free masks and you need one, take advantage of it. They will quite likely be much better that the crude sew free ones you can make with a handkerchief or old T-shirt. I don't want the transition to normalcy to fail and have to return to the Twilight Zone.

Seen a youtube with people making masks using Merv 13 air cond. filters. They say the Merv 13 would be similar to the N95 masks.

[Bill Robertson]

That's very helpful. Could you do one showing hospitalizations?

Actually I have new, hospitalizations and deaths all in the 5 day average format. They’re on my work computer so I’ll post the other two tomorrow.

[Bill Robertson]

Seen a youtube with people making masks using Merv 13 air cond. filters. They say the Merv 13 would be similar to the N95 masks.

We looked into changing to HEPA filters in our HVAC system in the office N95 equivalent would be MERV 17 by our research.

[ctchandler]

If you’re obese (which is the most common factor), elderly, or have other underlying health issues stay home.

Ok, jerk (just kidding) I'm 60 pounds over weight, 76 years old, and I have C. O. P. D., so I might as well just throw in the towel! But you are right, I don't go anywhere other than jumping on my mobility scooter and go outside to enjoy the fresh air. I'm going to be more careful now that the rules are easing up. I agree with the opening of the businesses but that means that there is a possibility that I will be exposed to more potential sick folks than I was over the last month.
C. T.

[catcherinthewry]

Actually I have new, hospitalizations and deaths all in the 5 day average format. They’re on my work computer so I’ll post the other two tomorrow.

Thanks.