IMO, there will be no return to "normal" in the airline & hotel industry.
Both reap the majority of their profits from business travel, buying high-margin last-minute tickets, not those going on a weekend junket to Vegas or going to see grandma once a year.
My company has a $65m/year travel budget. Not only are we not spending it, but we have come to the conclusion that not getting on a plane has not impacted our ability to meet clients or conduct business, it's only changed the method. And clients are increasing fine with that. "Communication" has not been affected at all.
We've also decided to quit flying candidates in for face-to-face interviews, probably permanently. Zoom is just fine.
While there will be some resumption of event and conference travel, those will be on a much smaller scale and tickets & hotel rooms for those events are usually discounted anyway. Price wars will abound.
As a sometime road warrior - Million Miler on Delta and 8-year United 1k - frankly, many of us could care less if we never get on another plane again, given what a pain in the ass flying has become. Most of my road warrior pees feel the same way
As for OKC, a lot of the guys sitting next to me on the upgrade are from the O&G industry. Many of them have now taken their last flight on company-paid travel. Sure there will still be some rebound demand, but returning to 2019 levels will take years, it ever.
I'm not predicting gloom & doom, but I do predict a fundamental change in the entire travel industry, given the fact that we are finding we don't really need to go unless we really need to go, and the bean counters will likely be able to point to the data showing how cutting the travel budget hasn't impacted revenue and has increased margin, while not impacting client satisfaction.
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