Covid-19 Economic Impact

[gopokes88]

That’s only about 40% too low. Great work Holt.

[OKC Guy]

With school out way early do teachers get full pay or how does that work? Also they used oil revenue to help pay and now everyone can see why that was a bad choice (to penalize oil so much)

[gopokes88]

With school out way early do teachers get full pay or how does that work? Also they used oil revenue to help pay and now everyone can see why that was a bad choice (to penalize oil so much)

Oil revenue will be practically 0 next fiscal year.
Nat gas revenue will be better.

US is staring down a full blown depression.

[brian72]

This corona virus pandemic will be nothing compared to the Depression that is knocking at the door.

[gopokes88]

This corona virus pandemic will be nothing compared to the Depression that is knocking at the door.

That is significantly more severe than it needed to be because we made huge decisions on incomplete and bad data

[Bunty]

So will the City or the Chamber actively lobby the legislature to change to property taxes? Is there any money in the coffers to pay a lobbyist?

I think resorting to property taxes may not be too hard to pass if people can be assured that property taxes won't go up any easier than before. But that would mean funding for schools would have to be cut.

For another resort, I don't think people would welcome a city income tax.

[Bunty]

That is significantly more severe than it needed to be because we made huge decisions on incomplete and bad data

I think a major reason for the shut down was to insure hospitals would not end up being overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients. Fortunately, it worked and now time to start getting the economy back to normal. However, I doubt if things will or should get back to normal soon for older people in less than good health. In other words, they should still stay at home.

[gopokes88]

I think a major reason for the shut down was to insure hospitals would not end up being overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients. Fortunately, it worked and now time to start getting the economy back to normal. However, I doubt if things will or should get back to normal soon for older people in less than good health. In other words, they should still stay at home.

Who got to make the call that was the #1 priority? Why is it the #1 priority?

It worked, but the medicine we have to take the next 12-24 months will be significantly worse than that outcome.

[brian72]

That is significantly more severe than it needed to be because we made huge decisions on incomplete and bad data

100% Agree. One of Reagan's quotes that resonates today. Recession is when your neighbor loses his Job. Depression is when you lose Yours. I hope I'm wrong. God, I hope I'm wrong.

[brian72]

nm

[gopokes88]

100% Agree. One of Reagan's quotes that resonates today. Recession is when your neighbor loses his Job. Depression is when you lose Yours. I hope I'm wrong. God, I hope I'm wrong.

I’ll be furloughed EOM for sure. I heard a scenario today where the American oil fields shut in for 60 days to drain the glut. That would mean most white collar oil workers will be too.

[jn1780]

I think a major reason for the shut down was to insure hospitals would not end up being overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients. Fortunately, it worked and now time to start getting the economy back to normal. However, I doubt if things will or should get back to normal soon for older people in less than good health. In other words, they should still stay at home.

That was the original goal, but then the goalposts were moved and we have the general population thinking they are working towards total containment and extermination of the virus.
There is a lot of screaming about Testing!, Testing! but there is now strong evidence that a large percentage of the population catch it and show zero or no symptoms. We can never get enough testing out there to completely contain the virus. The good news though is that the fatality rate is likely significantly lower.

The 1917-1918 flu they closed things on a regional level as they saw problems, they didn't do it because 3 or 4 cities in the country had a hospital overloading problem. Japan has been exposed to the virus a lot longer than the US and they are only just now seeing problems. These is interesting when you consider Tokyo has one of the most crowded subway systems in the world, the conductors literally stuff you in like sardines.

NYC is now doing its antibody survey testing. This will be enlightening,

On a side note, I wonder how many deaths in the coming months will be because an illness was not caught because screening was cancelled or put off? You hear those cases all the time where the cancer was caught "just in time". At least were starting elective procedures back up soon.

[Teo9969]

That was the original goal, but then the goalposts were moved and we have the general population thinking they are working towards total containment and extermination of the virus.
There is a lot of screaming about Testing!, Testing! but there is now strong evidence that a large percentage of the population catch it and show zero or no symptoms. We can never get enough testing out there to completely contain the virus. The good news though is that the fatality rate is likely significantly lower.

The 1917-1918 flu they closed things on a regional level as they saw problems, they didn't do it because 3 or 4 cities in the country had a hospital overloading problem. Japan has been exposed to the virus a lot longer than the US and they are only just now seeing problems. These is interesting when you consider Tokyo has one of the most crowded subway systems in the world, the conductors literally stuff you in like sardines.

NYC is now doing its antibody survey testing. This will be enlightening,

On a side note, I wonder how many deaths in the coming months will be because an illness was not caught because screening was cancelled or put off? You hear those cases all the time where the cancer was caught "just in time". At least were starting elective procedures back up soon.

I'm curious: what does everybody think the infection rate will be in New York from the antibody survey?

[FighttheGoodFight]

I'm curious: what does everybody think the infection rate will be in New York from the antibody survey?

Based on the LA County antibody test somewhere from 5% to 10%. Maybe higher since they are closer together.

[jerrywall]

So I saw they officially postponed the Elton John concert in OKC (no surprise). It made me think of the ticket promoters like Ticketmaster. I wonder how well they'll survive. Right now most of them are locking down, postponing shows, and refusing refunds. But I imagine many of the concerts won't be rescheduled, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some class action lawsuits against some of these ticketing services. Without some sort of government assistance I wonder if they'll survive. (And hopefully I'll still be alive to use my Elton John tickets sometimes in 21/22.)

[Pete]

^

Hopefully Elton will still be alive as well.

[FighttheGoodFight]

So I saw they officially postponed the Elton John concert in OKC (no surprise). It made me think of the ticket promoters like Ticketmaster. I wonder how well they'll survive. Right now most of them are locking down, postponing shows, and refusing refunds. But I imagine many of the concerts won't be rescheduled, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some class action lawsuits against some of these ticketing services. Without some sort of government assistance I wonder if they'll survive. (And hopefully I'll still be alive to use my Elton John tickets sometimes in 21/22.)

Ticketmaster and StubHub have been awful for years. All the fees and crap just make people mad. There is nothing worse than seeing one price and it ends up a lot more after they tack a fee on to deliver a ticket via email...

On a side note, I bet an Elton John concert would be a lot of fun.

[Edmond Hausfrau]

Ticketmaster and StubHub have been awful for years. All the fees and crap just make people mad. There is nothing worse than seeing one price and it ends up a lot more after they tack a fee on to deliver a ticket via email...

On a side note, I bet an Elton John concert would be a lot of fun.

Ticketmaster says they will refund only if concert is cancelled. If it is rescheduled, even for a date TBA, you are still on the hook. Basically they say, you can always put your tix on StubHub if you don't like it. Not a great policy. And hoping the new Foo Fighters OKC date works for me.

[Teo9969]

Based on the LA County antibody test somewhere from 5% to 10%. Maybe higher since they are closer together.

I wouldn't be surprised to see New York at over 25%, but I think it will be closer to 20%. Their death rate per million is an absolute atrocity: 1k per 1M - Italy and Spain are both under 600 per 1M. If you take NY and NJ out of the numbers, the US death rate plummets from 144 per 1M to 67 per 1M which is more in line with Germany.

Either they are either woefully inept in the medical community up there, or there just has to have been so many more cases than what have been tested. 15x their 262k cases would be right around 20%

I feel like New York is going to see a mass exodus after this, for just so many reasons.

[Teo9969]

Well there you go:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/n...rk-update.html

Even given a margin of error, there's just such a massive number that have been infected. I cannot imagine that a vaccine comes out until 6+ months after NYC has achieved herd immunity.

[Rover]

Well there you go:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/n...rk-update.html

Even given a margin of error, there's just such a massive number that have been infected. I cannot imagine that a vaccine comes out until 6+ months after NYC has achieved herd immunity.

Herd immunity assumes the defense continues to work. We are now seeing reports of infected/cured/infected. And, we don't know if the resistance lasts beyond 6 months anyway. Just expecting a natural cure is pretty dangerous and naive. We are just now starting to learn some about how this particular virus behaves, and it doesn't seem to be like others.

[Rover]

I wouldn't be surprised to see New York at over 25%, but I think it will be closer to 20%. Their death rate per million is an absolute atrocity: 1k per 1M - Italy and Spain are both under 600 per 1M. If you take NY and NJ out of the numbers, the US death rate plummets from 144 per 1M to 67 per 1M which is more in line with Germany.

Either they are either woefully inept in the medical community up there, or there just has to have been so many more cases than what have been tested. 15x their 262k cases would be right around 20%

I feel like New York is going to see a mass exodus after this, for just so many reasons.

They aren't inept medically, it is that they live in such proximity and everyone is near that it spreads rapidly and more completely. Everyone extols the excitement of living in dense urban environments, but this is one of the downsides.

[Teo9969]

They aren't inept medically, it is that they live in such proximity and everyone is near that it spreads rapidly and more completely. Everyone extols the excitement of living in dense urban environments, but this is one of the downsides.

As I said in my post: "Either they are either woefully inept in the medical community up there, or there just has to have been so many more cases than what have been tested."

I don't think many people were operating under the assumption that 1 in 5 New Yorkers were already infected.

[Rover]

As I said in my post: "Either they are either woefully inept in the medical community up there, or there just has to have been so many more cases than what have been tested."

I don't think many people were operating under the assumption that 1 in 5 New Yorkers were already infected.

They might not be operating under the assumption, but it isn't really all that surprising given the opportunity for spreading in such an environment. People who haven't been or don't spend time in NYC have no idea of the closeness of the people and the extreme opportunities for contact. Spreading is so easy there and would be quick.

[TheTravellers]

Plutonic Panda, is that you?

Speeding tickets for motorists driving at more than 100 mph are up 87% in California because of lighter traffic caused by stay at home order