Covid-19 Economic Impact

[AP]

The IRS is supposed to have a tool online tomorrow that allows you to check the status. I can just see mine pending in my account.

[Pete]

There will be a lull in people 'getting back to normal' - but look back in a year and much will be the same as it was prior.

No way attendance at sporting events and movie theaters is anywhere near what it was prior to the virus in one year.

[jerrywall]

The IRS is supposed to have a tool online tomorrow that allows you to check the status. I can just see mine pending in my account.

Here's where this will be for folks who'll need it. I'm waiting for the tool to be online for me to setup for direct deposit. I haven't gotten a tax refund in 2 decades, so I know they don't have any deposit info for me. Non filers can already get their payment information setup at this link but the rest of the tools are "coming soon".

https://www.irs.gov/coronavirus/econ...mpact-payments

[BBatesokc]

No way attendance at sporting events and movie theaters is anywhere near what it was prior to the virus in one year.

We'll see. You have no crystal ball. But you conveniently hedged your bet by picking two entertainment outlets that were already trending sharply down prior to the pandemic.

Headlines:
"Nobody is going to sports in person anymore. And no one seems to care" (New York Mag. 7/11/2018)
"The now constant crisis of empty seats in sports" (Vocal 2019)
"How will movie theaters survive the next 10 years" (IndieWire 2019)
"Hollywood's shaky summer summer box office points to larger issues" (NYT 2019)

So, it's only natural they would continue that trend. I also think the fact people were forced to stay home more, spend less and get out of their routine will also escalate the downward trend. I do not however think that "fear of the next virus" will be the catalyst of any dramatically lower numbers in the long term.

Personally, I'm fine with attendance falling if it makes ticket prices drop (my primary obstacle to attending).

[Pete]

^

I cleary stated those two categories were already trending down; you are being especially bombastic of late.

[Jersey Boss]

As I recall it took the airline industry at least a couple of years to recover from 9/11.

[PhiAlpha]

I think the big thing will be parents clamoring to reopen schools for the Fall. I am thinking parents are not going to do another semester of at-home distance learning.

People are starting to get stir crazy and I think we will see the shift to reopen (in some small fashion) at least by the end of May.

Yes, 1 million percent. For the love of god please open the schools this fall.

[PhiAlpha]

I'm not sure about the full timeline for stimulus checks, but mine is pending today. So at least they've started.

I've had at least one friend say the same.

[PhiAlpha]

No way attendance at sporting events and movie theaters is anywhere near what it was prior to the virus in one year.

I think it will depend on the event, but you're right. OU football for example, unless they sell their tickets, I can't imagine the donor section (or for that matter many of the seats for season ticket holder in the 60+ category) will be as full unless they ALL sell their tickets.

[OKCretro]

I don't think their will be fans in the stadiums if they play at all this year for college football.

I don't think we see fans in stadiums for any event until fall of 2021.

I do think games will be played before that and they will just be made for TV events.

[Pete]

I think it will depend on the event, but you're right. OU football for example, unless they sell their tickets, I can't imagine the donor section (or for that matter many of the seats for season ticket holder in the 60+ category) will be as full unless they ALL sell their tickets.

Regardless of your age, it's hard to imagine tens of thousands packing stadiums and arenas shoulder to shoulder and being funneled into and out of those places in big, tightly-packed groups; standing in concession lines, etc.

Especially when they can sit in their living room and watch on a huge HDTV for free.

There were big challenges already in selling tickets and it's going to be way tougher for at least 2 more years.

[mkjeeves]

I wonder the same about stage performances and conventions, particularly with the new convention center. Is it going to be pretty much empty for the first year?

[Rover]

Regardless of your age, it's hard to imagine tens of thousands packing stadiums and arenas shoulder to shoulder and being funneled into and out of those places in big, tightly-packed groups; standing in concession lines, etc.

Especially when they can sit in their living room and watch on a huge HDTV for free.

There were big challenges already in selling tickets and it's going to be way tougher for at least 2 more years.

More of the games might not be free. We may see whole new strategies for revenue.

[Pete]

More of the games might not be free. We may see whole new strategies for revenue.

Even so, it's hard to imagine charging $100 for each contest.

And if you watch with friends, even if they did it would still be way cheaper to watch at home.

[mugofbeer]

I think it will depend on the event, but you're right. OU football for example, unless they sell their tickets, I can't imagine the donor section (or for that matter many of the seats for season ticket holder in the 60+ category) will be as full unless they ALL sell their tickets.

I will agree that many will stay away but as I've said in another thread, I would not have a problem going if treatments, vaccinations or drug therapies are identified that definitely keep us from dying. I can handle getting sick but dying is a whole different issue.

[Pete]

^

Even just getting sick from this thing can be pretty horrific.

That prospect lingering out there for the next couple of years is enough to ensure crowds of any size are going to be limited; maybe drastically so just by choice.

I've had season tickets to OU football for quite a while but even if this season is played, I'll be watching from home.

[jn1780]

I wonder the same about stage performances and conventions, particularly with the new convention center. Is it going to be pretty much empty for the first year?

I would think so. Besides Covid-19 conventions are not going to be a high priority for businesses looking for everywhere they can to save a penny.

[Pete]

I would think so. Besides Covid-19 conventions are not going to be a high priority for businesses looking for everywhere they can to save a penny.

This is true of most discretionary spending, both on the corporate and individual levels.

Aggregate spending returning to pre-virus levels will likely take years.

This is a reality much more concerning than simply 'reopening the economy'. Someone said it well: It will not be a lightswitch but more like a dimmer that is very slowly turned up.

[mugofbeer]

I couldn't tell you what the multiplier might be but for every month the economy is closed, there is a multiplier for how long the recovery will be. For example, for every month of closure, it may be, say, 6 months of recovery time. It is vitally important, even if done on a spot level, that states allow people to start getting out starting in those areas where the virus hadn't really hit yet.

I tend to be optimistic that there will be a nice recovery but not back to pre-virus levels.
Those were unprecedented and just abnormally high.

[Teo9969]

I couldn't tell you what the multiplier might be but for every month the economy is closed, there is a multiplier for how long the recovery will be. For example, for every month of closure, it may be, say, 6 months of recovery time. It is vitally important, even if done on a spot level, that states allow people to start getting out starting in those areas where the virus hadn't really hit yet.

I tend to be optimistic that there will be a nice recovery but not back to pre-virus levels.
Those were unprecedented and just abnormally high.

Scarier yet is the stock market may make a rebound while small business does not. I wouldn't be remotely shocked to see DJIA 30k with 8%+ unemployment and GDP <$20T before 2025.

The end result of this will likely be larger dependence over the next 5 to 10 years on the biggest corporations. Especially if political will rises up for a UBI from this event (may even make it into a debate question this election season).

[PhiAlpha]

This is true of most discretionary spending, both on the corporate and individual levels.

Aggregate spending returning to pre-virus levels will likely take years.

This is a reality much more concerning than simply 'reopening the economy'. Someone said it well: It will not be a lightswitch but more like a dimmer that is very slowly turned up.

For me at least, the economic impact this will have is starting to sink in and to put it simply, it sucks beyond anything I imagined when graduating...even after watching the housing crisis go down while in college. Very depressing (economically and emotionally) from all angles.

[Pete]

It really sucks for those nearing retirement.

They will not have very much time to recover from all the losses.

[jerrywall]

It really sucks for those nearing retirement.

They will not have very much time to recover from all the losses.

Yup. My mother is a teacher and is very close to retiring (she was actually considering retiring after this year). I'm not sure what this is going to do long term to her plans. She'll probably end up staying until they force her out.

[PhiAlpha]

It really sucks for those nearing retirement.

They will not have very much time to recover from all the losses.

Yes it does. Very much so.

[mugofbeer]

Scarier yet is the stock market may make a rebound while small business does not. I wouldn't be remotely shocked to see DJIA 30k with 8%+ unemployment and GDP <$20T before 2025.

The end result of this will likely be larger dependence over the next 5 to 10 years on the biggest corporations. Especially if political will rises up for a UBI from this event (may even make it into a debate question this election season).

Ref to DOW. I think it may hit 30K THIS year if we start to come out of COVID soon without a follow-up surge of cases. New York and the high population, old urban cities are totally different cases than the rest of the country. Keep in mind, the stock market is supposed to be a leading economic indicator and have a 3 - 6 month lookout period. It wouldn't go up unless investors think there is to be a recovery.

With regard to large corporations, I don't think there is any question the cash-rich entities will weather this whole thing better. Unless there can be more of a small business bailout coming from the government, large corporations will absolutely have more market share.

It's incumbent upon us all to support local businesses both now and after COVID.