Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[OKC Talker]

Again, shelter-at-home OR everyone gets it are not the only options. There are sensible middle ground approaches. The herd immunity end game seems to be a way worse option than tests + masks + social distancing + widespread precautions to get us through the year+ until there's a vaccine. Most things can re-open under those circumstances. Probably not indoor (or crowded) concerts or clubs and such will probably need to stay closed for longer. But businesses that impose temporary COVID-19 limitations (e.g., every third table can be used) could open. A lot of people will certainly choose to be less social until there's a vaccine and so carry out/delivery will continue to be popular.

I'm not sure if you can really call "tests + masks + social distancing + widespread precautions" a middle ground. With everything we've seen with non-symptomatic carriers and the long incubation period of covid-19, life can't just go back to normal. Keeping office buildings, classrooms, or even restaurants 1/3 full and scheduling arrivals and use of the facilities so that people don't try to walk through the door or use the restroom at the same time won't work. Daily tests to see "Have I been infected today?" and the constant fear of anyone around you who so much as sniffles or coughs would send therapist bills through the roof. This is just a delaying tactic that is going to hurt lots of people (not just the ones who die).

Coronaviruses are apparently very difficult to create vaccines for as everyone who's gotten a cold can tell you. The wonder drugs which are supposedly supposed to solve everything seem to have dubious value. I'd be amazing if modern science were to come up with a solution and regulatory shortcuts were to get it into wide distribution, but that can't be the plan. The only way out of this that I can see is the long slow slog of building immunity while keeping high risk groups protected.

[mugofbeer]

Yes, you are no doctor. You should have just posted that. Listen to doctors, not politicians. Period.

I am listening to doctors. My Denver example was from a highly regarded family practitioner here who wanted it known the 12 patients (so far) he has prescribed hydroxychloroquine and an antibiotic to all showed dramatic improvement. He's a 50 year veteran. There's your PERIOD.

[FighttheGoodFight]

Back to a bit about Oklahoma...

https://twitter.com/eCapitol_Shawn/s...853161473?s=20

"Oklahoma's initial unemployment claims for the week of April 4 totaled 51,124, according to the US Department of Labor. That is the third weekly record in a row, 3,380 more claims than the prior week."

[BBatesokc]

Just an FYI - I went to a clinic on SW 4th in Moore this morning (1025 I think is the address) and got tested. They can do a blood test and the throat/nasal swab. The blood test gets results in 10 minutes and the swab takes two days and is a confirmatory test for the blood test. Rapid test came back negative for me. The cost was just my $35 co-pay.

Decided to get tested because I am providing closer than I'd like care for my 94 year old grandfather (groceries, bills, etc.).

Additionally, they were very glad my wife and I have been keeping a running health diary for the last several weeks. Twice a day we note out temperature, blood oxygen level, heart rate, and peak flow. We also make a brief note of our health for that day (feel fine, headache, stomach ache, fatigue, etc. and give it a severity rating). In fact, those were the same initial tests they gave me before drawing my blood. There are some articles advising people not to record all those vitals on their own, but it makes zero sense to me and didn't make any sense to the clinic or my primary care physician.

[jn1780]

I'm not sure if you can really call "tests + masks + social distancing + widespread precautions" a middle ground. With everything we've seen with non-symptomatic carriers and the long incubation period of covid-19, life can't just go back to normal. Keeping office buildings, classrooms, or even restaurants 1/3 full and scheduling arrivals and use of the facilities so that people don't try to walk through the door or use the restroom at the same time won't work. Daily tests to see "Have I been infected today?" and the constant fear of anyone around you who so much as sniffles or coughs would send therapist bills through the roof. This is just a delaying tactic that is going to hurt lots of people (not just the ones who die).

Coronaviruses are apparently very difficult to create vaccines for as everyone who's gotten a cold can tell you. The wonder drugs which are supposedly supposed to solve everything seem to have dubious value. I'd be amazing if modern science were to come up with a solution and regulatory shortcuts were to get it into wide distribution, but that can't be the plan. The only way out of this that I can see is the long slow slog of building immunity while keeping high risk groups protected.

This is true. There may not be an effective vaccine. Its not good to hedge all our bets on a vaccine. Most states are plateauing well below the level their resources can handle. It is time to start slowly opening things up with increased testing and more reasonable social distancing.

I personally don't buy onto the idea that the inital module predictions were high because of only social distancing. There are other variables at play. Perhaps, The total number of people this virus hits hard is less than expected.

[Pete]

And keep in mind, even with the flu the vaccine isn't always effective and the majority of people never get the shot.

[jn1780]

I'm hoping there are more antibody surveys done throughout the world in hot spots that can collaborate this study by small group of German Scientist. This shows lethality to be .37. In this particular German town anyway.

This is from a Google translate so grammer spelling may be off.

Preliminary results and conclusions of the COVID-19 case cluster study (Gangelt municipality)
Prof. Dr. Hendrik Streeck (Institute of Virology)
Prof. Dr. Gunther Hartmann (Institute for Clinical Chemistry and Clinical
Pharmacology, spokesman for the Cluster of Excellence ImmunoSensation2
)
Prof. Dr. Martin Exner (Institute for Hygiene and Public Health)
Prof. Dr. Matthias Schmid (Institute for Medical Biometry, Computer Science and
Epidemiology)
University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, April 9, 2020
Background: The community of Gangelt is one of the strongest in Germany
COVID19 affected places in Germany. It is believed that
Infection events due to a carnival meeting on February 15, 2020
is because several people tested SARSCoV2 positive after this session
were. The carnival session and the outbreak of the session is currently underway
examined more closely. It became a representative sample from the community
Gangelt (12,529 inhabitants) moved to the district of Heinsberg. The
World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a protocol that varies depending on
expected prevalence randomly 100 to 300 households are examined.
This sample was coordinated with its representativeness with Prof. Manfred
Güllner (Forsa).
Goal: The goal of the study is to keep the level of going through and still
SARS-CoV2 infections (percentage of all infected) taking place in the community
Gait to determine. In addition, the status of the current SARS-CoV2
Immunity can be determined.
Procedure: A form letter was sent to approximately 600 households. Overall took
approx. 1000 inhabitants from approx. 400 households took part in the study. There were questionnaires
collected, throat swabs taken and blood for the presence of antibodies (IgG,
IgA) tested. The intermediate results and go into this first evaluation
Inferences from approx. 500 people.
Preliminary result: An existing immunity of approx. 14% (antiSARS-CoV2 IgG positive, specificity of the method>, 99%) was determined. About 2% of the
Individuals had a current SARS-CoV-2 determined using the PCR method
Infection on. The infection rate (current infection or already gone through) was
a total of approx. 15%. The lethality (case fatality rate) based on the total number of
Infected in the community of Gangelt is based on the preliminary data from this
Study about 0.37%. Currently in Germany from Johns-Hopkins University
calculated lethality is 1.98% and is 5 times higher. The
Mortality based on the total population in Gangelt is currently 0.15%

https://www.coolis.de/2020/04/09/cor...ck-informiert/

[kukblue1]

Just an FYI - I went to a clinic on SW 4th in Moore this morning (1025 I think is the address) and got tested. They can do a blood test and the throat/nasal swab. The blood test gets results in 10 minutes and the swab takes two days and is a confirmatory test for the blood test. Rapid test came back negative for me. The cost was just my $35 co-pay.

Decided to get tested because I am providing closer than I'd like care for my 94 year old grandfather (groceries, bills, etc.).

Additionally, they were very glad my wife and I have been keeping a running health diary for the last several weeks. Twice a day we note out temperature, blood oxygen level, heart rate, and peak flow. We also make a brief note of our health for that day (feel fine, headache, stomach ache, fatigue, etc. and give it a severity rating). In fact, those were the same initial tests they gave me before drawing my blood. There are some articles advising people not to record all those vitals on their own, but it makes zero sense to me and didn't make any sense to the clinic or my primary care physician.

Glad I'm not the only one that is checking my vitals 2 times a day sometimes 3. I'm not really writing it done but do send it to a friend on facebook who thinks i'm crazy.

[Pete]

Numbers just updated for Thursday:

[Edmond Hausfrau]

Just an FYI - I went to a clinic on SW 4th in Moore this morning (1025 I think is the address) and got tested. They can do a blood test and the throat/nasal swab. The blood test gets results in 10 minutes and the swab takes two days and is a confirmatory test for the blood test. Rapid test came back negative for me. The cost was just my $35 co-pay.

Decided to get tested because I am providing closer than I'd like care for my 94 year old grandfather (groceries, bills, etc.).

Additionally, they were very glad my wife and I have been keeping a running health diary for the last several weeks. Twice a day we note out temperature, blood oxygen level, heart rate, and peak flow. We also make a brief note of our health for that day (feel fine, headache, stomach ache, fatigue, etc. and give it a severity rating). In fact, those were the same initial tests they gave me before drawing my blood. There are some articles advising people not to record all those vitals on their own, but it makes zero sense to me and didn't make any sense to the clinic or my primary care physician.

Whoa, whoa, Hang on.
What blood test did you get? There is no rapid serologic test approved for Covid-19 except the one I mentioned upthread from Cellex. Was your blood test a rule out for something else?
If someone on southside is doing rapid serologic tests of Covid-19, they are either right on the cutting edge (like got approval in last 24hours), or they need to be brought to the quick attention of the FDA.

[Edmond Hausfrau]

I am listening to doctors. My Denver example was from a highly regarded family practitioner here who wanted it known the 12 patients (so far) he has prescribed hydroxychloroquine and an antibiotic to all showed dramatic improvement. He's a 50 year veteran. There's your PERIOD.

I don't know the heart muscle question you asked on the other thread,but would enjoy a link to the article if available. And I will carry over my previous post from there.
The problem with your Dr. in Denver is the same thing we are all guilty of (myself included). Cognitive bias and confirmation bias. We treat something one way, the patient improves, we assume it's because of the treatment. We seek out more examples to confirm what we think we know: that OUR treatment is working. Again, I am the first one to admit that I am guilty of this and here's a link that explains how it leads to medical errors.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5093937/
And to Eric's question, yes I think reasonable doctors are prescribing Plaquenil alone(spelling out hydroxychloroquine makes me stressed). The guidance from the FDA is pretty clear that if the patient is dying, it can be used. And off label prescribing is an option as long as it doesn't deviate from the standard of care in a given area. Lawyers can weigh in on the whole "standard of care" and "reasonable man" definitions for these cases.
Where people do get into trouble with off label prescribing is when non-doctors suggest it. Specifically, several pharmaceutical companies have had their hands slapped hard for pushing off-label prescribing of specific drugs. I know Eli Lilly had a case, I think Janssen did too. So I am guessing that a savy lawyer could make a case if they thought that a push for off-label prescribing was coming from a non-clinician and could tie the push to a specific pharmaceutical company as the instigator.
I don't have a sense that's the case here. I honestly just think people are desperate and grasping at anything that gives them hope against a deadly disease. As it has always been in medicine, and thus it will ever be.

[catcherinthewry]

Not on Tuesday, on Tuesday 9,700 people died. That's a 26% increase. Would you like to die 26% faster than you are supposed to? Your statement that 7700 die every day is idiotic.

It's just a coincidence that there are shortages of body bags and refrigerator trucks are being used as make shift morgues. SMDH
Like someone said above, there are just some posters on here that facts don't seem to matter to. Life's too short to try to make them see something they refuse to see.

[BBatesokc]

Whoa, whoa, Hang on.
What blood test did you get? There is no rapid serologic test approved for Covid-19 except the one I mentioned upthread from Cellex. Was your blood test a rule out for something else?
If someone on southside is doing rapid serologic tests of Covid-19, they are either right on the cutting edge (like got approval in last 24hours), or they need to be brought to the quick attention of the FDA.

The test was specifically to see if my blood had CV-19 antibodies.

The FDA recently approved the use of rapid testing by specific labs.

They also do the swabs, but that takes an additional 2 days.

I believe their test may be the one you mentioned previously.

[Mott]

It's just a coincidence that there are shortages of body bags and refrigerator trucks are being used as make shift morgues. SMDH
Like someone said above, there are just some posters on here that facts don't seem to matter to. Life's too short to try to make them see something they refuse to see.

Since we are expecting 80% and more of those infected with COVID-19, will recover without going to the hospital, then all those people could be given vitamin C, but that’s not going to help the ones who end up on a ventilator, and then die.

[RustytheBailiff]

where’s your cite for this? I’m assuming you’re just making stuff up, per usual.

Now why would you think I am making this up and why do you add "per usual"?

You yourself said that 7700 people die daily (a number for which you did not provide a cite). If you add 1973, the number of death attributed to the Covid-19 virus for Tuesday, to 7700, actually 7708.3 in 2017 per the CDC, you get a total of 9681, or approximately 9700.

Next time you want to argue with one of my posts, please use facts.

[chuck5815]

Now why would you think I am making this up and why do you add "per usual"?

You yourself said that 7700 people die daily (a number for which you did not provide a cite). If you add 1973, the number of death attributed to the Covid-19 virus for Tuesday, to 7700, actually 7708.3 in 2017 per the CDC, you get a total of 9681, or approximately 9700.

Next time you want to argue with one of my posts, please use facts.

Wrong

You are continuing to make **** up. Also, apparently you are too stupid to understand a Venn Diagram.

And it is, quite frankly, sad

[Martin]

Wrong

You are continuing to make **** up. And apparently you are too stupid to understand a Venn Diagram.

And it is, quite frankly, sad

tone it down... make your argument with facts and not insults. this goes for everybody.

[soonerguru]

There are Holocaust deniers, 911 Truthers, people who say the Sandy Hook massacre was a hoax, and bow we have Covid-19 deniers. It will be interesting to see what these people have to say in like two weeks. Mark down what they are saying now and we will compare notes in a few weeks.

[mugofbeer]

I don't know the heart muscle question you asked on the other thread,but would enjoy a link to the article if available. And I will carry over my previous post from there.
The problem with your Dr. in Denver is the same thing we are all guilty of (myself included). Cognitive bias and confirmation bias. We treat something one way, the patient improves, we assume it's because of the treatment. We seek out more examples to confirm what we think we know: that OUR treatment is working. Again, I am the first one to admit that I am guilty of this and here's a link that explains how it leads to medical errors.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5093937/
And to Eric's question, yes I think reasonable doctors are prescribing Plaquenil alone(spelling out hydroxychloroquine makes me stressed). The guidance from the FDA is pretty clear that if the patient is dying, it can be used. And off label prescribing is an option as long as it doesn't deviate from the standard of care in a given area. Lawyers can weigh in on the whole "standard of care" and "reasonable man" definitions for these cases.
Where people do get into trouble with off label prescribing is when non-doctors suggest it. Specifically, several pharmaceutical companies have had their hands slapped hard for pushing off-label prescribing of specific drugs. I know Eli Lilly had a case, I think Janssen did too. So I am guessing that a savy lawyer could make a case if they thought that a push for off-label prescribing was coming from a non-clinician and could tie the push to a specific pharmaceutical company as the instigator.
I don't have a sense that's the case here. I honestly just think people are desperate and grasping at anything that gives them hope against a deadly disease. As it has always been in medicine, and thus it will ever be.

While I appreciate what you say and you being quite civil about it, I'm not about to publicize the name and put him on the line. You discuss cognitive and confirmation bias but with so much politics involved, l see the exact same thing in the opposite direction. People of an ilk would do just about anything to supress the potential benefit of Plaquenil/antibiotic than see that "blustering baboon" turn out to be right.

I probably seem to most as a Trump supporter on here because l constantly question the idiotic things people say about him. I can't stand the guy, l despise him but not enough to totally uphend our economy and society to put unrealistic make-everything-free-to-buy-my-vote candidates like Warren and Sanders in office. There is such seething blind hate of Trump that l am convinced certain people would rather see COVID deaths than see the Plaquenil/antibiotic actually work.

My only contention is that when there are almost 2000 deaths per day there is NO reason to not allow this therapy to be used when nothing else is working. It boils down to what-is-there-left-to-lose? I could give a rat about politics. I also could give a rat about peer reviewed, carefully regulated and highly controlled study groups.

Use the friggin drug to just SEE if it helps? It clearly has some effect. If everyone continues to die then maybe it doesn't work. Otherwise.....

Oh, and when people try to say its robbing lupus and malaria patients of the drug, maybe states and the feds need to stop hoarding millions and millions of doses for their time-consuming tests, make lowering deaths their test. Do both!

Finally, this was openly reported on a local TV station, so he's probably already being pressured by certain groups with threats of lawsuits and the usual peer and onlinecriticisms. It's easy enough to find if you really want to.

[OKC Guy]

The toll of self quarantine will become evident more and more:

This from News 9:

OKC Police See Jump In Domestic Violence Calls In March 2020
Jennifer Pierce
Published Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:14 PM CDT
Updated Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:23 PM CDT
Oklahoma City police saw a jump in domestic violence calls in the month of March, and they expect the numbers will continue to rise while the "stay at home" order is in place.

The most recent domestic-related incident happened Thursday morning near NW 10th Street and Classen Boulevard. Homicide detectives were called to the home to investigate after a victim was found with a fatal gunshot wound.

March 2020 – 3,129
March 2019 – 2,809

Keep on mind the quarantine was just getting started in mid to late Mar. April numbers and beyond will be much worse.

[soonerguru]

The toll of self quarantine will become evident more and more:

This from News 9:

OKC Police See Jump In Domestic Violence Calls In March 2020
Jennifer Pierce
Published Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:14 PM CDT
Updated Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:23 PM CDT
Oklahoma City police saw a jump in domestic violence calls in the month of March, and they expect the numbers will continue to rise while the "stay at home" order is in place.

The most recent domestic-related incident happened Thursday morning near NW 10th Street and Classen Boulevard. Homicide detectives were called to the home to investigate after a victim was found with a fatal gunshot wound.

March 2020 – 3,129
March 2019 – 2,809

Keep on mind the quarantine was just getting started in mid to late Mar. April numbers and beyond will be much worse.

I am glad you brought up this stat. It proves just how complicated this moment we find ourselves in is. We are having to triage basic decisions. We are having to choose between economic continuity and public safety. What you are talking about is a wrenching public issue: specifically a small business being shut down to protect the public's health. This is a $hit sandwich. It sucks, and people on this forum are disposed to hate it the most, because we follow and admire public and commercial enhancements to our city. There will be much collateral damage from this era, as there is in war. Hopefully the US Congress and president will be able to continue to provide relief to mitigate this disaster.

[OKC Talker]

My only contention is that when there are almost 2000 deaths per day there is NO reason to not allow this therapy to be used when nothing else is working. It boils down to what-is-there-left-to-lose? I could give a rat about politics. I also could give a rat about peer reviewed, carefully regulated and highly controlled study groups.

Use the friggin drug to just SEE if it helps? It clearly has some effect. If everyone continues to die then maybe it doesn't work. Otherwise.....

Oh, and when people try to say its robbing lupus and malaria patients of the drug, maybe states and the feds need to stop hoarding millions and millions of doses for their time-consuming tests, make lowering deaths their test. Do both!

It may turn out that an immunosuppressant and an antibiotic somehow help with some of the symptoms of this virus (google "cytokine storm") but it's very unlikely that it's a magical cure that will make up for the disaster that's been created.

Following your argument we should staff hospitals with naturopaths, faith healers, and voodoo priestesses. While that's happening, people think they'll just be cured so they don't need to take precautions against being infected anymore, and time and money are pulled away from the development of treatments that might actually help.

I'm all for grasping at straws but sometimes false hope is worse than no hope at all...

[jerrywall]

https://oklahoman.com/article/565985...d-19-treatment

[RustytheBailiff]

tone it down... make your argument with facts and not insults. this goes for everybody.

Why is Chuck5815 allowed to call me stupid, twice, yet my responses are stricken?

[Teo9969]

I am glad you brought up this stat. It proves just how complicated this moment we find ourselves in is. We are having to triage basic decisions. We are having to choose between economic continuity and public safety. What you are talking about is a wrenching public issue: specifically a small business being shut down to protect the public's health. This is a $hit sandwich. It sucks, and people on this forum are disposed to hate it the most, because we follow and admire public and commercial enhancements to our city. There will be much collateral damage from this era, as there is in war. Hopefully the US Congress and president will be able to continue to provide relief to mitigate this disaster.

Or to put it another way, we're being forced to choose between Public Safety and Public Safety.