Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[BoulderSooner]

exactly. this is my observations as well.

i'm also still waiting to see how this is killing our economy. some businesses are not going to survive this, yes, i understand that. and it's going to change a lot about how people prepare for situations and how much they keep saved, etc... but that is the nature of a true free market. you adapt or you die. The economy is hurting but not dying like several of the posters on here are thinking. and relief for some of that is coming. but all disasters cause the end of some businesses, if they aren't able to survive the duration of the event, and don't adjust going forward. this is a true free market situation.

on friday of this week we will pass 15 million unemployment claims in the last 3 weeks alone that takes unemplyment to almost 15%

[jedicurt]

on friday of this week we will pass 15 million unemployment claims in the last 3 weeks alone that takes unemplyment to almost 15%

and businesses will reopen after this is over. and that number is going to go down and go down quickly. your point? we are still in the middle of this disaster. we don't look at unemployment numbers in the middle of, or immediately after a hurricane and say the whole economy is forever destroyed do we? The government is doing what it is supposed to do. providing more money for that short term unemployment as a stop gap. the economy is actually doing much stronger for all that has been going on than most would have guessed. consumer confidence is pretty high, the stock market isn't taking every day. people are still able to get food and other essential items. there aren't mass shortages of goods. where is this destroyed economy? it's just temporarily in a slump. it's not like the oil crises of the last 70's even... we are fine.

[soonerguru]

This will drag on for months due to the patchwork approach, with too many exemptions for what should be non-essential businesses. If states like Oklahoma would just rip off the Band-aid and enforce strict social distancing, we could get through this much faster.

[soonerguru]

Regarding the bewildering flu comparison:

https://www.publicradiotulsa.org/pos...bNU5sD-AnfHcb0

[sooner88]

and businesses will reopen after this is over. and that number is going to go down and go down quickly. your point? we are still in the middle of this disaster. we don't look at unemployment numbers in the middle of, or immediately after a hurricane and say the whole economy is forever destroyed do we? The government is doing what it is supposed to do. providing more money for that short term unemployment as a stop gap. the economy is actually doing much stronger for all that has been going on than most would have guessed. consumer confidence is pretty high, the stock market isn't taking every day. people are still able to get food and other essential items. there aren't mass shortages of goods. where is this destroyed economy? it's just temporarily in a slump. it's not like the oil crises of the last 70's even... we are fine.

Those unemployment numbers should improve now that the Paycheck Protection Program is in place and employers are able to re-hire recently laid off employees. That of course will not be the case for everyone and this is a short-term relief, but it's a step in the right direction.

[Pete]

Those unemployment numbers should improve now that the Paycheck Protection Program is in place and employers are able to re-hire recently laid off employees. That of course will not be the case for everyone and this is a short-term relief, but it's a step in the right direction.

I'm not sure anyone will use that money to re-hire people. Once received, it all has to be spent in 8 weeks in order for it to be forgivable.

[Teo9969]

and businesses will reopen after this is over. and that number is going to go down and go down quickly. your point? we are still in the middle of this disaster. we don't look at unemployment numbers in the middle of, or immediately after a hurricane and say the whole economy is forever destroyed do we? The government is doing what it is supposed to do. providing more money for that short term unemployment as a stop gap. the economy is actually doing much stronger for all that has been going on than most would have guessed. consumer confidence is pretty high, the stock market isn't taking every day. people are still able to get food and other essential items. there aren't mass shortages of goods. where is this destroyed economy? it's just temporarily in a slump. it's not like the oil crises of the last 70's even... we are fine.

This is incorrect beginning at the first sentence of your post.

We are already at a point where some businesses will not reopen. The gov't has done some work to minimize those losses with the SBA loans, but those mediums are essentially useless if we're not back up and running after April...maybe we can make it a week or 2 into May. After that, it will require another round of injection from the Fed/Washington, but at some point, a large swath of small business owners will just cut losses and not try to guess when we're good to come out of lockdown. And they will not re-insert that working capital back into the market until they have some assurance that we're not going to get rocked again.

When restrictions are lifted and many people's choice of food establishment to celebrate is no longer operating and has no definite plans of returning will be the 1st time that people really begin to understand the economic consequences of this virus. The closer we push this to summer, the more out of whack supply and demand economics becomes. Returning that to order will probably take, minimum, a month for every week we are shut down beginning this month.

[BBatesokc]

I'm curious which testing site this was? None in Oklahoma are reporting faster than 8 hour turnaround. Would you be comfortable divulging where your friends went?
That turnaround time is a huge outlier.

Sorry, didn't ask for the name of the place. I just know the last friend to be tested had to go to Norman and was told to be there by 7am because it's first come, first served.

[RedDollar]

I think the number of people laid off needs to be put in perspective, here's unemployment claims in historical context

https://twitter.com/ThingsWork/statu...073536512?s=19

And ya don't just flip a switch and everything returns to normal, a lot of businesses are becoming cash poor and won't have to capital to restart.

Also, this Fed spending is not mannah from heaven, its not free. We're looking at a return of inflation, higher interest rates, and higher taxes

We will also see the impact in higher prices for goods as manufacturing returns from over seas, where they've been enjoying cheap labor. That won't fly here. This will contribute to inflation.

The restaurant business looks terrible. They're still just tricking back to restaurants in China. Until there's a vaccine , there's gonna be large segments of the economy that struggle.

Housing will be another concern that the Fed Gov will have to deal with, foreclosures are sure to follow unemployment, that will lead to a crash in housing prices.

[OKC Guy]

I'm not sure anyone will use that money to re-hire people. Once received, it all has to be spent in 8 weeks in order for it to be forgivable.

But they are required to rehire to qualify for forgiveness correct?

Cut/paste:

The Paycheck Protection Program is a loan designed to provide a direct incentive for small businesses to keep their workers on the payroll.

SBA will forgive loans if all employees are kept on the payroll for eight weeks and the money is used for payroll, rent, mortgage interest, or utilities.

https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs...on-program-ppp

[Pete]

^

All you have to do is keep the employees you have at the time of application.

Most companies have already let go the majority of their staff.

[soonerguru]

It does appear that Oklahoma County numbers are leveling off. Small town Oklahoma not so much. It is foolish to assume tens of thousands of Oklahomans contracting a virus that is fatal up to 3.5 percent would create a robist environment for economic stability. Further, the governor exempted many businesses that few would view as essential.

[sooner88]

I'm not sure anyone will use that money to re-hire people. Once received, it all has to be spent in 8 weeks in order for it to be forgivable.

That is probably correct, but it should help to curb additional layoffs as well as keep the lights on once we get back to some level of normalcy to allow for them to re-hire previous employees.

[TheTravellers]

That is probably correct, but it should help to curb additional layoffs as well as keep the lights on once we get back to some level of normalcy to allow for them to re-hire previous employees.

But will the previous employees still be re-hire-able? Some will have moved on to other jobs or other fields, who knows how many will be re-employed where they used to work...

Also a very real concern that America will become more corporatized because huge companies will benefit more from the bailout than small employers, and chains might start snapping up non-reopening small businesses/restaurants.

Teo's post is pretty on target, there are *lots* of places that just won't re-open. Think about Lipsmackers - did good business, tried to open in a new place, got in too deep to re-open, ran out of money, and no Lipsmackers ever again (or at least for the foreseeable future). Not an exact comparison, but close enough because lots of places just won't get bailed out (or if they do, not in time).

https://slate.com/business/2020/04/c...er-grants.html

[BoulderSooner]

I think the number of people laid off needs to be put in perspective, here's unemployment claims in historical context

https://twitter.com/ThingsWork/statu...073536512?s=19

And ya don't just flip a switch and everything returns to normal, a lot of businesses are becoming cash poor and won't have to capital to restart.

Also, this Fed spending is not mannah from heaven, its not free. We're looking at a return of inflation, higher interest rates, and higher taxes

We will also see the impact in higher prices for goods as manufacturing returns from over seas, where they've been enjoying cheap labor. That won't fly here. This will contribute to inflation.

The restaurant business looks terrible. They're still just tricking back to restaurants in China. Until there's a vaccine , there's gonna be large segments of the economy that struggle.

Housing will be another concern that the Fed Gov will have to deal with, foreclosures are sure to follow unemployment, that will lead to a crash in housing prices.

and this doesn't even talk about how all state and city gov are going to be in a world of hurt budget wise

[BoulderSooner]

It does appear that Oklahoma County numbers are leveling off. Small town Oklahoma not so much. It is foolish to assume tens of thousands of Oklahomans contracting a virus that is fatal up to 3.5 percent would create a robist environment for economic stability. Further, the governor exempted many businesses that few would view as essential.

3.5% is a number almost out of thin air ...

[Rover]

3.5% is a number almost out of thin air ...

You are right... there are some medical authorities claiming it may be higher since it may have caused deaths that were misdiagnosed, especially amongst those with existing heart and lung conditions.

Given the poor record on testing, denial by lots, and asymptomatic carriers, we will probably not know the real number. What we do know is it way more deadly than the flu or other viruses and we have no vaccine.

[BoulderSooner]

You are right... there are some medical authorities claiming it may be higher since it may have caused deaths that were misdiagnosed, especially amongst those with existing heart and lung conditions.

Given the poor record on testing, denial by lots, and asymptomatic carriers, we will probably not know the real number. What we do know is it way more deadly than the flu or other viruses and we have no vaccine.

and the huge majority think it is much much smaller and we don't know that it is more deadly than the flu

[Edmond Hausfrau]

Sorry, didn't ask for the name of the place. I just know the last friend to be tested had to go to Norman and was told to be there by 7am because it's first come, first served.

I'm betting it's IMMY labs in Norman, has capacity for 150 tests per day and reports a 6 hour turnaround (I am guessing that they built themselves a bit of a buffer) . Interesting that it's $75. They originally were quoting $25 plus the cost of the test kit, so their cost is $50 per kit? Hmmm.

[FighttheGoodFight]

and this doesn't even talk about how all state and city gov are going to be in a world of hurt budget wise

In the most recent stimulus bill 4 (electric boogaloo) one proposal from the house is $150 billion to go to states to shore up their budget deficits

[PhiAlpha]

3.5% is a number almost out of thin air ...

This

[dankrutka]

The re-open-the-economy folks who think the economic hardship is worse than COVID-19 live in fantasy land. This isn't an either/or choice.

First, anyone who argues this isn't worse than the flu should be ignored because all the evidence supports they're wrong. The primary reason things aren't way worse is because people have taken drastic social distancing measures across the United States. Even with shelter-in-place for weeks, here's what happened in NYC (source):

– The grey line shows the number of deaths in New York State in 2015-18
– The colored lines at the bottom are deaths from the flu in past years
– In red is the number of confirmed deaths from the pandemic

(click on the picture for a larger image)

Regardless of whether it will be as bad, most cities in the U.S. still haven't hit their peak.

Second, there is no such thing as re-opening the economy until COVID-19 is under control. This requires universal testing and mask wearing, the development of anti-bodies, and continued social distancing. And only once the curve has flattened can businesses open in a limited way. People will not fully participate in the economy unless they are confident the health risks are low (and this has to be real or sickness and death will reveal it).

In short, the only reasonable option is to (a) get COVID-19 under control so health confidence raises and (b) then re-open aspects of the economy while continuing/maintaining tests, masks, social distancing, etc. All of that will be around for the next year+ in some form or another.

[BoulderSooner]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-...ay-11585088464

[OKC Guy]

^

All you have to do is keep the employees you have at the time of application.

Most companies have already let go the majority of their staff.

Ok, I see what you are saying. If already cut they don’t have to rehire.

Had I made the bill I would have required rehires to qualify. Especially since its free money (forgiveness).

[PhiAlpha]

The re-open-the-economy folks who think the economic hardship is worse than COVID-19 live in fantasy land. This isn't an either/or choice.

First, anyone who argues this isn't worse than the flu should be ignored because all the evidence supports they're wrong. The primary reason things aren't way worse is because people have taken drastic social distancing measures across the United States. Even with shelter-in-place for weeks, here's what happened in NYC (source):




(click on the picture for a larger image)

Regardless of whether it will be as bad, most cities in the U.S. still haven't hit their peak.

Second, there is no such thing as re-opening the economy until COVID-19 is under control. This requires universal testing and mask wearing, the development of anti-bodies, and continued social distancing. And only once the curve has flattened can businesses open in a limited way. People will not fully participate in the economy unless they are confident the health risks are low (and this has to be real or sickness and death will reveal it).
In short, the only reasonable option is to (a) get COVID-19 under control so health confidence raises and (b) then re-open aspects of the economy while continuing/maintaining tests, masks, social distancing, etc. All of that will be around for the next year+ in some form or another.

Sure there is...you just do it (over a few weeks) because it isn't feasible to keep it shut down long enough for universal testing, a vaccine to be developed, or the virus to disappear. People will be willing to go along with this for a few more weeks but at some point, anger and unrest among the unemployed and people running businesses that aren't being allowed to operate will build and end with people pushing for an end to this or rebelling against the stay at home order/nonessential orders.

At any rate, I guess we'll see how it works out for Sweden vs everyone else.