Covid-19 Economic Impact

[gopokes88]

And the sad/hilarious thing is that it's a completely false choice in the first place. The idea that we'd somehow still have a functioning economy if we let the virus run rampant, which would collapse our healthcare system and kill off millions of people in a matter of months, is ludicrous.

I think you would have seen a very dark 8 weeks with, a million dead, hospitals overrun, and everyone catching. But then herd immunity is achieved, and life moves on.

This is a less dark outlook, but 12-24 month total disruption to all parts of life.

It's like choosing between your city getting hit with a nuke or bombed every single night for a year.

[liirogue]

ON another note, I had a child in 2019 but have not yet filed my 2019 return so they'll be operating off the assumption we're a 2 adult household...when I go to file 2020 returns next year, will the child portion of the payment be counted toward my withholdings or would I need go ahead and work to receive the disbursement?

My understanding is that the stimulus checks are advance payments of a new tax credit for the 2020 tax year. So if you do not receive a stimulus check, or only part of it due to circumstances like what you describe, you will get the difference when you file your 2020 taxes.

Conversely, if you receive a check but should not have (if your 2019 AGI is too high), you will have to repay all or part of the stimulus check when you file your 2020 taxes.

[OKC Guy]

1. Can anyone say with certainty when it arrived?

2. Can anyone say with certainty what the real rates are?

3. Can anyone say with certainty the estimates are correct?

If not then we shut down America using faulty data. As is the recent estimates are incorrect.

4. Can anyone tell us how many deaths will be caused by economy collapsing? How many domestic violence cases increase? Suicides?

Everyone is fixated on numbers that can’t be substantiated. So anyone who disputes them is a radical. What about those who lost everything they spent years building?

[GoGators]

1. Can anyone say with certainty when it arrived?

2. Can anyone say with certainty what the real rates are?

3. Can anyone say with certainty the estimates are correct?

If not then we shut down America using faulty data. As is the recent estimates are incorrect.

4. Can anyone tell us how many deaths will be caused by economy collapsing? How many domestic violence cases increase? Suicides?

Everyone is fixated on numbers that can’t be substantiated. So anyone who disputes them is a radical. What about those who lost everything they spent years building?

What part of a bad economy would make someone suddenly want to start beating their wife? Having a hard time making that correlation.

[Ginkasa]

They have China and Italy and other countries to pull numbers from, so its not like the data starts with America and we have no idea how bad it can be (or, at least, how bad it has been for other countries). I mean, New York at this point is in a bad spot. Its not like people are just imagining that.

But, yeah, more should be done to help those affected by business closures, etc. That is absolutely another impact of the virus and it needs to be addressed just as much as we need to limit the spread of the virus.

Its not a black and white, one or the other argument.

What part of a bad economy would make someone suddenly want to start beating their wife? Having a hard time making that correlation.

You've lost your job. Money's tight. You get mad and frustrated at the world. You're a POS so you decide to take it out on your spouse.

You were already a POS spouse abuser, but they at least had reprieve when you were home from work. Now you're home all the time and you're even madder due to the aforementioned reasons.

Etc.

[sooner88]

1. Can anyone say with certainty when it arrived?

2. Can anyone say with certainty what the real rates are?

3. Can anyone say with certainty the estimates are correct?

If not then we shut down America using faulty data. As is the recent estimates are incorrect.

4. Can anyone tell us how many deaths will be caused by economy collapsing? How many domestic violence cases increase? Suicides?

Everyone is fixated on numbers that can’t be substantiated. So anyone who disputes them is a radical. What about those who lost everything they spent years building?

All the numbers are public data, and, due to limited testing, are very understated - especially the number of positive tests. The number of confirmed positives continues to double ~3 days. The estimates are coming from private and public health officials are just that - estimates. Currently, the only proven way to prevent the spread is to stay at home / self-quarantine. What data do you have to substantiate that this isn't anything other than serious?

This is obviously a very anxious time for everyone, especially small business owners who have seen all profits wiped out in a matter of weeks. There is temporary relief being provided from the government and banks to keep everyone's head above water, but that is a band-aid. There is every indication that the mandates put in place are the right move, and if in hindsight we look back and view this as an overreaction I would count that as a win in my book vs. the alternative.

[TheTravellers]

What part of a bad economy would make someone suddenly want to start beating their wife? Having a hard time making that correlation.

If people are in a domestic abuse situation, and one or both loses their jobs, and they have to stay at home around each other, domestic abuse will likely go up. Not sure how shelters are operating now, but a victim might not have a safe place to go easily and will just have to stay in their home and deal with the abuse. And the abuser, which isn't right in the head to start with (because a sane, normal person doesn't abuse their partner) is most likely even more wrong in the head due to loss of income and mobility, stress, etc.

[BBatesokc]

What part of a bad economy would make someone suddenly want to start beating their wife? Having a hard time making that correlation.

There are numerous articles published saying domestic violence cases are now on the rise due to circumstances surrounding Covid-19. It's also not a secret that financial stresses are often the button for domestic violence in a household.

[HangryHippo]

1. Can anyone say with certainty when it arrived?

2. Can anyone say with certainty what the real rates are?

3. Can anyone say with certainty the estimates are correct?

If not then we shut down America using faulty data. As is the recent estimates are incorrect.

4. Can anyone tell us how many deaths will be caused by economy collapsing? How many domestic violence cases increase? Suicides?

Everyone is fixated on numbers that can’t be substantiated. So anyone who disputes them is a radical. What about those who lost everything they spent years building?

Or you could just answer the question.

[OKC Guy]

Or you could just answer the question.

Here’s the thing. You are looking for a “gotcha” moment for an unanswerable question. What that does is stop all discussion on the topic at hand. No deaths are good for anything preventable but modern societies all have risks. We offset one for another as tradeoff.

Other than looking for gotcha moments why can’t you discuss the original information. Is it possible we decrease CV deaths but increase others? And if we increase others by more than CV is that a good tradeoff? One of the issues is the data being used is flawed. Yet we shut down the country.

Where is that line? I don’t know the answer and neither do you. But if you insist on an exact number we can never have that discussion.

There are many people going to be devastated by economics. But that can turn into medical. More suicides. More domestic violence. More divorces. Not counting how many people had to delay surgeries like if you have a tumor. Then the anxiety of unemployed or even employed but worried - this can lead to medical problems.

I think its fair to discuss without forcing a number. But if you are only looking for a gotcha number then you will be disappointed I won’t give one. Sorry

[OKC Guy]

All the numbers are public data, and, due to limited testing, are very understated - especially the number of positive tests. The number of confirmed positives continues to double ~3 days. The estimates are coming from private and public health officials are just that - estimates. Currently, the only proven way to prevent the spread is to stay at home / self-quarantine. What data do you have to substantiate that this isn't anything other than serious?

This is obviously a very anxious time for everyone, especially small business owners who have seen all profits wiped out in a matter of weeks. There is temporary relief being provided from the government and banks to keep everyone's head above water, but that is a band-aid. There is every indication that the mandates put in place are the right move, and if in hindsight we look back and view this as an overreaction I would count that as a win in my book vs. the alternative.

Very fair reply thank you

[HangryHippo]

Here’s the thing. You are looking for a “gotcha” moment for an unanswerable question. What that does is stop all discussion on the topic at hand. No deaths are good for anything preventable but modern societies all have risks. We offset one for another as tradeoff.

Other than looking for gotcha moments why can’t you discuss the original information. Is it possible we decrease CV deaths but increase others? And if we increase others by more than CV is that a good tradeoff? One of the issues is the data being used is flawed. Yet we shut down the country.

Where is that line? I don’t know the answer and neither do you. But if you insist on an exact number we can never have that discussion.

There are many people going to be devastated by economics. But that can turn into medical. More suicides. More domestic violence. More divorces. Not counting how many people had to delay surgeries like if you have a tumor. Then the anxiety of unemployed or even employed but worried - this can lead to medical problems.

I think its fair to discuss without forcing a number. But if you are only looking for a gotcha number then you will be disappointed I won’t give one. Sorry

You repeatedly post that it needs to be debated, yet when I repeatedly asked you what YOU thought the answer to your own question was, you failed/refused to answer. It is certainly fair to discuss without forcing a number, but that isn't what you wanted - until you shifted the goalposts.

[bombermwc]

The reality is that we're going to go into a recession (we already are) but we have to in order to protect the people. It means businesses are going to fail. Sad fact, but its true. Our unemployment rate is going to go crazy. We're already seeing the first negative job growth numbers for the first time since the great recession. But it's all necessary so this doesn't become a much large global disaster than it already is.

What would help, is if people would stop acting like its not necessary and stop going places they don't need to. For some reason, the people of the southern states seem to be less on-board than the rest of the country about staying home. STAY THE F HOME PEOPLE!

We do not need nail shops open, we do not need people working construction sites (saw a mcdonalds site being worked on this week...how is that essential?), we do not need car washes, tattoo/piercing places, the list goes on and on. I mean if you want to say that car service is essential, ok. but how is car sales? There are all kinds of things that become inconvenient, but that are not ESSENTIAL. It boggles my mind why people do not understand this.

If people would get on board, we could cut this in 2 weeks. But since people keep going all over the place, it keeps spreading.

[jonny d]

The reality is that we're going to go into a recession (we already are) but we have to in order to protect the people. It means businesses are going to fail. Sad fact, but its true. Our unemployment rate is going to go crazy. We're already seeing the first negative job growth numbers for the first time since the great recession. But it's all necessary so this doesn't become a much large global disaster than it already is.

What would help, is if people would stop acting like its not necessary and stop going places they don't need to. For some reason, the people of the southern states seem to be less on-board than the rest of the country about staying home. STAY THE F HOME PEOPLE!

We do not need nail shops open, we do not need people working construction sites (saw a mcdonalds site being worked on this week...how is that essential?), we do not need car washes, tattoo/piercing places, the list goes on and on. I mean if you want to say that car service is essential, ok. but how is car sales? There are all kinds of things that become inconvenient, but that are not ESSENTIAL. It boggles my mind why people do not understand this.

If people would get on board, we could cut this in 2 weeks. But since people keep going all over the place, it keeps spreading.

Thankfully, in OK, the governor closed all of those down, statewide, and not just in affected counties, like he originally did. Are there states that haven't closed these places down?!

[Jersey Boss]

Yea there are states that have not closed these places down.

[BBatesokc]

Thankfully, in OK, the governor closed all of those down, statewide, and not just in affected counties, like he originally did. Are there states that haven't closed these places down?!

Car lots are still open last time I checked. I passed by a car wash this morning that is still open too. I personally think both of those being open is good.

[jerrywall]

Car lots are still open last time I checked. I passed by a car wash this morning that is still open too. I personally think both of those being open is good.

Staffed or unstaffed carwash, out of curiosity? I think the automatic and self washes absolutely are fine staying open. The local Red Carpet carwash probably doesn't need to be open though.

[gopokes88]

The reality is that we're going to go into a recession (we already are) but we have to in order to protect the people. It means businesses are going to fail. Sad fact, but its true. Our unemployment rate is going to go crazy. We're already seeing the first negative job growth numbers for the first time since the great recession. But it's all necessary so this doesn't become a much large global disaster than it already is.

What would help, is if people would stop acting like its not necessary and stop going places they don't need to. For some reason, the people of the southern states seem to be less on-board than the rest of the country about staying home. STAY THE F HOME PEOPLE!

We do not need nail shops open, we do not need people working construction sites (saw a mcdonalds site being worked on this week...how is that essential?), we do not need car washes, tattoo/piercing places, the list goes on and on. I mean if you want to say that car service is essential, ok. but how is car sales? There are all kinds of things that become inconvenient, but that are not ESSENTIAL. It boggles my mind why people do not understand this.

If people would get on board, we could cut this in 2 weeks. But since people keep going all over the place, it keeps spreading.

A depression will kill more suicide, overdose, malnutrition deaths in kids will all spike the 2H of this year. It will be far larger than Covid.

Every estimate so far has underestimated the damage to the economy and will continue.

I don't know if you have a mountain of gold in your back yard or something but income is essential to life. And the government can't print it's way out of this.

Brad Pitt's Big Short character saying, "every 1% unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die" is a true statistic.

So while Covid has killed 6,155, unemployment also rose 1% so 40k died from that.

[HangryHippo]

Brad Pitt's Big Short character saying, "every 1% unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die" is a true statistic.

So while Covid has killed 6,155, unemployment also rose 1% so 40k died from that.

Is there somewhere other than that film that can corroborate this statistic?

[jdizzle]

Is there somewhere other than that film that can corroborate this statistic?

I doubt it was meant in any way more than metaphorical...but think about it. It makes sense. People who might already be depressed at least have their jobs to help them cope. Without that, they have nothing. Same with the fact that abuses and sexual assaults will increase because of this crap.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local...5b5_story.html

[BBatesokc]

Staffed or unstaffed carwash, out of curiosity? I think the automatic and self washes absolutely are fine staying open. The local Red Carpet carwash probably doesn't need to be open though.

Staffed. But drive through.

[Greggo71]

Now seeing some grocery supply chain problems popping up because of the shut down. This will probably get worse especially for perishables.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-dai...100952217.html

[Teo9969]

Now seeing some grocery supply chain problems popping up because of the shut down. This will probably get worse especially for perishables.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-dai...100952217.html

Dairy is particularly susceptible to this kind of issue though. Not a lot of things that perish quite like dairy. Other things could come up as well, but we should at least be able to work through the supply chain issues for food by July 1 if we're still dealing with this in May.

[Canoe]

https://kfor.com/news/local/stitt-ok...evenue-failure

Expected recvenue shortfall.

[Jersey Boss]

Time to start cashing the submitted casino receipts.