Covid-19 Economic Impact

[gopokes88]

Attachment 15871

Yep. Three more of weeks of this and the country is for sure going to be opened back up by Easter, especially less dense non coastal areas.

[chuck5815]

Attachment 15871

That spike makes 2008 all but disappear into the chart.

Thanks, China.

[OKC Guy]

Unintended consequence

The Wuhan Corona Virus Bill actually rewards Companies that Furlough workers. Companies can offload workers onto Government Unemployment & then bring them back in 4 Months... It may actually push the unemployment rate higher in coming reports.

[SEMIweather]

Yep. Three more of weeks of this and the country is for sure going to be opened back up by Easter, especially less dense non coastal areas.

Case counts in Oklahoma have jumped by about 50% over each of the last two days, three more weeks of that and the country is for sure not going to be opened back up by Easter, even less dense non coastal areas.

[Pete]

We need these numbers to peak and start slowing down before there is any hope or resuming even a small degree of normalcy.

I suspect we'll be on virtual lockdown through April and maybe May. Only after that will we start to see some businesses reopening.

But very hard to imagine restaurants -- or any place where people congregate -- being fully functional until next year.

[Bunty]

Yep. Three more of weeks of this and the country is for sure going to be opened back up by Easter, especially less dense non coastal areas.

Sarcastic are ya?

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Trump's silly statement about that will be an example of the emperor being naked. He can't force states to open up. Cuomo and other governors make the call.
Louisiana is getting walloped and they sure aren't a coastal state.
Orange said this is a war. If he tries to open up on Easter, he is waving a white flag. He needs to implament the DPA and quit with the postering.

As for Louisiana, here’s the most popular theory: Mardi Gras.
—
Some 70% of Louisiana's 1,795 confirmed cases to date are in the New Orleans metro area.
The culprit for the rapid spread of coronavirus in the Big Easy? Some blame Carnival.
"Mardi Gras was the perfect storm, it provided the perfect conditions for the spread of this virus," said Dr. Rebekah Gee, who until January was the Health Secretary for Louisiana and now heads up Louisiana State University's health care services division.
She noted that Fat Tuesday fell on Feb. 25, when the virus was already in the United States but before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and national leaders had raised the alarm with the American public.
"New Orleans had its normal level of celebration, which involved people congregating in large crowds and some 1.4 million tourists," Gee said. "We shared drink cups. We shared each other's space in the crowds. People were in close contact catching beads. It is now clear that people also caught coronavirus."
Gee said that the explosive growth rate of the coronavirus in the Mississippi River port city means "it's on the trajectory to become the epicenter for the outbreak in the United States."

https://news.trust.org/item/20200325200808-oc1ie
Reuters

[Bunty]

As for Louisiana, here’s the most popular theory: Mardi Gras.
—
Some 70% of Louisiana's 1,795 confirmed cases to date are in the New Orleans metro area.
The culprit for the rapid spread of coronavirus in the Big Easy? Some blame Carnival.
"Mardi Gras was the perfect storm, it provided the perfect conditions for the spread of this virus," said Dr. Rebekah Gee, who until January was the Health Secretary for Louisiana and now heads up Louisiana State University's health care services division.
She noted that Fat Tuesday fell on Feb. 25, when the virus was already in the United States but before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and national leaders had raised the alarm with the American public.
"New Orleans had its normal level of celebration, which involved people congregating in large crowds and some 1.4 million tourists," Gee said. "We shared drink cups. We shared each other's space in the crowds. People were in close contact catching beads. It is now clear that people also caught coronavirus."
Gee said that the explosive growth rate of the coronavirus in the Mississippi River port city means "it's on the trajectory to become the epicenter for the outbreak in the United States."

https://news.trust.org/item/20200325200808-oc1ie
Reuters

If it's just to shut things down, then people in Louisiana dying from CORVID-19 should be higher than from last year's flu.

[gopokes88]

Sarcastic are ya?

Not even in the slightest.

-I think the impact to pocket books will start to cause people to rebel. And a desire to get on with life.
-There's tons of research starting to show the death rate is a denominator problem.
-I think as testing ramps up over the next few weeks you'll see cases increase but the spread slowing.
-I think as more and more data is available we'll learn that it is a highly contagious but not particularly deadly virus.
-I think millions of American's have had it all winter and the spread will slow very soon.

"The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected."

^ I think that is likely true.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-....co/KJvgkdqKNT

I think the US was extremely flat footed with the response, and to compensate for it they overreacted. Maybe not overreacted but were backed into a corner with terrible options.

[jn1780]

Not even in the slightest.

-I think the impact to pocket books will start to cause people to rebel. And a desire to get on with life.
-There's tons of research starting to show the death rate is a denominator problem.
-I think as testing ramps up over the next few weeks you'll see cases increase but the spread slowing.
-I think as more and more data is available we'll learn that it is a highly contagious but not particularly deadly virus.
-I think millions of American's have had it all winter and the spread will slow very soon.

"The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected."

^ I think that is likely true.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-....co/KJvgkdqKNT

I think the US was extremely flat footed with the response, and to compensate for it they overreacted. Maybe not overreacted but were backed into a corner with terrible options.

If this virus does have these unique set of characteristics, its not surprising epidemiologists would have a hard time believing it. They have never seen a virus act this way in nature before. Super fast transmission, but it is only deadly to less than 1 percent of the population. This would were just seeing this on a tighter timeline and we only feel pressure much further along on the curve.

But we did have a cruise ship that was perfect setup to study virus spread in a contain environment.

[gopokes88]

If this virus does have these unique set of characteristics, its not surprising epidemiologists would have a hard time believing it. They have never seen a virus act this way in nature before. Super fast transmission, but it is only deadly to less than 1 percent of the population. This would were just seeing this on a tighter timeline and we only feel pressure much further along on the curve.

But we did have a cruise ship that was perfect setup to study virus spread in a contain environment.

This guy just said whoops sorry model was off by 96%. He now predicts 20k UK death versus 500K.

He predicted 2.2M American deaths.

That's the model they made decisions on because we didn't have good testing and there we didn't have good data.

https://www.newscientist.com/article...pert-predicts/

[BoulderSooner]

This guy just said whoops sorry model was off by 96%. He now predicts 20k UK death versus 500K.

He predicted 2.2M American deaths.

That's the model they made decisions on because we didn't have good testing and there we didn't have good data.

https://www.newscientist.com/article...pert-predicts/

this is all extremely important info

[Bunty]

Not even in the slightest.

-I think the impact to pocket books will start to cause people to rebel. And a desire to get on with life.
-There's tons of research starting to show the death rate is a denominator problem.
-I think as testing ramps up over the next few weeks you'll see cases increase but the spread slowing.
-I think as more and more data is available we'll learn that it is a highly contagious but not particularly deadly virus.
-I think millions of American's have had it all winter and the spread will slow very soon.

"The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected."

^ I think that is likely true.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-....co/KJvgkdqKNT

I think the US was extremely flat footed with the response, and to compensate for it they overreacted. Maybe not overreacted but were backed into a corner with terrible options.

I hope your source of info is right. But common sense tells me shutdowns shouldn't be called off while hospitals are overwhelmed with shortages and masks aren't available for everyone who wants to wear one. But in Oklahoma, it's too early to know how bad it gets. More deaths will have to happen before more Oklahomans will take seriously the need for 6ft. social distancing. At this early point, I think dropping restrictions would make me less likely to go to stores, not more likely.

[David]

This guy just said whoops sorry model was off by 96%. He now predicts 20k UK death versus 500K.

He predicted 2.2M American deaths.

That's the model they made decisions on because we didn't have good testing and there we didn't have good data.

https://www.newscientist.com/article...pert-predicts/

He literally did not say "whoops sorry model was off", he said that the measures UK is using appear to be successfully containing the virus better than the worse case scenarios. There is no reason to believe the same will hold true for the US given that we are not consistently using those same measures.

[SEMIweather]

This guy just said whoops sorry model was off by 96%. He now predicts 20k UK death versus 500K.

He predicted 2.2M American deaths.

That's the model they made decisions on because we didn't have good testing and there we didn't have good data.

https://www.newscientist.com/article...pert-predicts/

He is literally saying this because the UK is now following strict social distancing guidelines.

[HangryHippo]

this is all extremely important info

Yes. Were you able to read and understand it, particularly the part about intensive social distancing and its efficacy? We know you've struggled to grasp that.

[OKC Guy]

Yes. Were you able to read and understand it, particularly the part about intensive social distancing and its efficacy? We know you've struggled to grasp that.

They only started 2 days ago so how can he say its 96% less lethal now? He was way off to begin with but his data was used by WHO as a key point. No way can he say its so much less after only 2 days unless it was wrong from the start.

[HangryHippo]

They only started 2 days ago so how can he say its 96% less lethal now? He was way off to begin with but his data was used by WHO as a key point. No way can he say its so much less after only 2 days unless it was wrong from the start.

The article clearly stated that assumptions changed based on new strategies.

[gopokes88]

The article clearly stated that assumptions changed based on new strategies.

How convenient for him. Sweet deal for him, oh I wasn’t wrong you guys just changed so cool all good now.

[HangryHippo]

How convenient for him. Sweet deal for him, oh I wasn’t wrong you guys just changed so cool all good now.

Didn't you say you own(ed) a business? I'd think you'd understand all too well that the numbers can change as the strategies do.

[gopokes88]

Didn't you say you own(ed) a business? I'd think you'd understand all too well that the numbers can change as the strategies do.

I think that guys ridiculous worst case scenario model caused everyone to panic, overreact and now that it’s clear he was wrong, he’s trying to save face.

[TheTravellers]

Interesting info in here about the SBA relief, kind of sad reading, but still interesting.

https://slate.com/business/2020/03/c...-stimulus.html

[OKC Guy]

Interesting info in here about the SBA relief, kind of sad reading, but still interesting.

https://slate.com/business/2020/03/c...-stimulus.html

I didn’t read it as sad. It seems like pretty fair program with loan forgiveness. It gets rehires done. It helps keep rehires. Its 2.5 months yet we’ve been closed less than 3 weeks so far on average.

[Teo9969]

For a bit of background for those who think that the people calling calamity are being a bit overzealous in their positions, here is my recent experience:

I had the great good fortune of traveling to Brazil the same day the NBA season was closed down. This was Wednesday March 11th.

We stayed with my brother-in-law who runs a bed and breakfast (which is for sure going belly up because of all of this mess). At the time we arrived the US was not in all that bad of a position and I believe Brazil had less than 100 confirmed cases in a country of >200,000,000 people.

We paid my B-I-L in cold hard US Dollars cash (USD). This, of course, means that he needed to work with a exchange company to move the money from dollars to Brazilian Reales (BRL). When we arrived the official exchange rate was ~$4.80 BRL to $1 USD, and my BIL could exchange for $4.40 BRL to $1 USD at his local shop. <10% spread. This occurred pretty quickly after we arrived.

7 days later, when we couldn't enter Argentina (of which my wife is a citizen) because the borders had already been closed to foreign non-residents, we determined to stay with my B-I-L a bit longer and gave him more USD to cover our stay. This time, when my B-I-L went to exchange his USD for BRL, the official rate had risen to $5.05 BRL to $1 USD. However, this time, he was quoted a price of $4.20 BRL to $1 USD (now >15% spread).

Here's where things should hopefully begin to make sense about the potential calamity we face: When my B-I-L, knowing the official exchange rate was substantially better, he said "Fine, I'll take it". He was met with "Sorry, we do not have any BRL to give you".

What this means is that the exchange parlor did not have the cash on hand to take a profit that is substantially greater than they are used to taking in the currency exchange market.

This lack of liquidity is the problem that faces the entire global economy, and no matter the decisions the US Gov't, or the Federal Reserve, or the Chinese Gov't, or the ECB make...the reality is that the flow of money is the oxygen of the global economy. The flow of money being stopped is the same thing as cutting off the oxygen supply to a human being. There is a very finite amount of time before the human being drops dead.

The. Entire. Global. Economy...is at risk of dropping dead because of (our response to) COVID-19.

I don't know if the drop dead point is 4/17, 5/1, 5/17 or 5/29, but even if the drop dead point is 5/29, the world needs to realize there are long-term consequences to holding our breath. There is more consequential death the longer we hold out. In an economy of >$20T, $2T barely covers one month...

[Bunty]

Once again, not doing much of anything about responding to the virus likely would have brought on a recession as well. Chaos, panic and hoarding possibly worse.

After all it did, the U. S. now leads the world in confirmed Coronavirus cases. India is on shutdown. It will be interesting to see if India can do enough to keep from replacing the U. S.