I have a relative with all of the symptoms who was hospitalized for pneumonia in the Tulsa area. He did get a test but it was negative. I'm reading that the tests themselves have many false negatives. Who knows how many actually are carrying it?
I guess I will take this as a lesson to be more clear in my writing and not rely on people to give the benefit of the non literal interpretation, as I said “coming close to doubling,” by which I meant we are approaching the point of doubling in a day. Again, I’ll be more clear so we don’t have to get into pedantic clarifications in the future.
Either way, the situation is clearly escalating and that’s because our leadership has done such a poor job preparing the state for this, despite having the benefit of seeing how this played out in other states and countries. For some reason that boggles my mind, they thought we would be the exception.
That is PRECISELY the point we’ve been trying to make for a long time, but there’s a subset of the population that steadfastly refuses to understand we have no idea how far this is spread because we are not testing at the level we need to test. There were people on this board and in positions of state and city leadership who were very recently saying “Well, we only have 2 cases, what’s the big deal?! Let’s wait to see it spread more before we take action, instead of saying, “wow, everywhere else we can see, this has spread like wildfire. I sure wish we had the tests to verify where it has spread here so we can act in a targeted manner, but since we don’t, we should take precautions and assume it’s here and people are unknowingly spreading it.”
We watched the bomb descending from the sky, but waited for the bomb to explode before we decided to tell people to go into their bunkers. Too late.
It seems important to note that out of a group of nearly 1000 people who were either exhibiting moderate to severe symptoms or had direct exposure to someone who tested positive for Covid-19, only 16% tested positive and only 6% were hospitalized. 83% of a group that was self-reporting and likely had a much higher probability of being infected than the general state population tested negative.
I wonder how many of those that tested negative are just super rich or "important" people who were able to take advantage of their status/position to get a test done on themselves.
I personally know at least two very high net worth individuals who had no symptoms or contact who got tested "just to be safe". I'm sure there are some in that number but it probably doesn't skew the results.
Didn’t everyone in the state senate get tested? Plus 58 members of the Utah Jazz organization? That alone would represent more than 10 percent of all tested. Then, the Thunder tested everyone, too, which they paid for but would be included in the total numbers. So, yes, rich and important folks are a huge percentage of the numbers. If you are taking any comfort from the high percentage of negatives consider the obvious fact that the sample size is small and entirely inconclusive.
Granted this is in LA, but representative of numbers being inaccurate. I have a friend who lives with her husband and a roommate. They have all been ill for 10 days. One of the three was tested and finally got results back positive. That counts as one.
Thursday update:
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Today's numbers: 248 positive cases, 86 hospitalized and 7 deaths. This is about a 50% rise in positive cases over yesterday. Without better testing it's hard to say whether the jump is reflective of an exponential increase of cases or us just catching up on testing. I suspect the latter at this point, but probably a combination of the two.
Edit: Glad to see Pete updated the results while I was typing my post.
Yeah.. my neighbor was tested, and is still pending results (currently presumed positive). They haven't tested anyone else in the house, even though a couple of them are also ill - just the one with the biggest health risk. They said that even if hers come back positive, they likely won't test the rest of the folks in the house.
Seeing the same rough “triple every three days” trend other places have seen.
I also know 2 people with bad cough shortness of breathe but no fever. Because they have only 2 symptoms they can't get tested. Basically there are WAY more people out there that have this. Some are still walking around shopping, using drive-thru and whatever. Stay home if at all possible.
Which is why it's absolutely baffling that we aren't able to get on the ball with these drive-through testing stations. If more could get a confirmation of their status, then that would give them more incentive to quarantine and maybe our numbers could go the way of South Korea.
And we have endless cycles of “I can’t get tested because I the person who was sick around me doesn’t have a positive test because he couldn’t get tested because the person who was sick around them didn’t have a positive test because they couldn’t get tested because the person who was sick around them didn’t have a positive test........”
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