2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

[Edmond Hausfrau]

Some really good prices on airline Tix out of OKC, and all the airlines doing no fee on changes if ticket booked before March 31.
Don't fly if you are sick, but if you are well then round trip into Vail/Aspen for under $250 is a bargain.

What a difference 72hours makes.
11 of the 46 confirmed Colorado Covid-19 cases are in Eagle Co. 7 are new in a 24hr period.
I'll hold off on my spring skiing and try again next year.

[catch22]

OKC has fallen off a cliff this weekend. Reality setting in? OKC (UA) has a 42.1% load factor today.

Load factors (systemwide UA) for 3/16

ATL 56.3%
DEN 52.5%
DFW 49.1%
BNA 45.8%
MEM 45.7%
TUL 44.1%
IAH 44.0%
OKC 42.1%
EWR 38.7%
SFO 37.3%
OMA 35.9%

[CloudDeckMedia]

Catch - Can you clarify for me that "load factor" is simply the percentage of occupied seats versus available seats on all flights during that period? Any exceptions such as non-rev, etc.?

[catch22]

Catch - Can you clarify for me that "load factor" is simply the percentage of occupied seats versus available seats on all flights during that period? Any exceptions such as non-rev, etc.?

Correct - 75 seats sold vs 100 available is a 75% load factor. Non revs are included and not included at the same time. If a non rev has a seat assignment and boarded the report I am using will count them - if they are listed for the flight but not cleared they do not count. Other reports may vary and the final report filed with the DOT may or may not contain them.

In OKC's case 516 sold vs 1226 for sale today.

[CloudDeckMedia]

Correct - 75 seats sold vs 100 available is a 75% load factor. Non revs are included and not included at the same time. If a non rev has a seat assignment and boarded the report I am using will count them - if they are listed for the flight but not cleared they do not count. Other reports may vary and the final report filed with the DOT may or may not contain them.

In OKC's case 516 sold vs 1226 for sale today.

Thank you!

[CloudDeckMedia]

In the charter world, owners & operators are changing practices. Some owners are grounding their aircraft for fear of contamination. Some operators are not accepting new, unknown charter clients. Others are implementing new policies for pax screening, cabin cleaning & flight ops (closed partitions between crew & pax).

[catch22]

April cuts for UA

OKC-DEN reduced to 3x daily (down from 6)
OKC-IAH reduced to 6x daily (down from 8)
OKC-ORD reduced to 3x daily (down from 4)
OKC-IAD reduced to 1x daily (down from 2)
OKC-SFO remains at 1x daily. Not sure why, there are only 80 people booked to SFO for the entire week of April 5.

More to come I am sure

[CloudDeckMedia]

April cuts for UA
OKC-SFO remains at 1x daily. Not sure why, there are only 80 people booked to SFO for the entire week of April 5.

More to come I am sure

The entire Bay Area is locked down, so I don’t even know how CSAs, rampers, car rental agents, taxi drivers, etc. get to the airport. Once a pax arrives, where do they go? What do they do?

[catch22]

April.

Delta reduces ATL-OKC to 5 daily down from 6.
Delta reduces MSP-OKC to 1 daily down from 2.

Southwest reduces STL-OKC to 1 daily down from 2.

Not bad. As usual, there will be more.

[Richard at Remax]

Probably a good time to get after some deferred maintenance on some aircrafts

[catch22]

Probably a good time to get after some deferred maintenance on some aircrafts

Cash flow. Surviving is goal #1. If it's not critical it isn't being fixed. We are rotating aircraft to spread around hours so we don't consume cycle or time (hours) parts too fast. It's pretty dark times right now.

[Executionist]

Correct - 75 seats sold vs 100 available is a 75% load factor. Non revs are included and not included at the same time. If a non rev has a seat assignment and boarded the report I am using will count them - if they are listed for the flight but not cleared they do not count. Other reports may vary and the final report filed with the DOT may or may not contain them.

In OKC's case 516 sold vs 1226 for sale today.

Dating myself, but I remember my airline pilot dad saying US airlines were profitable with 40-50% load factors in the 60's & 70's- pre-Arab oil embargo. What is break-even LF now- at least pre-COVID-19?

[catch22]

Dating myself, but I remember my airline pilot dad saying US airlines were profitable with 40-50% load factors in the 60's & 70's- pre-Arab oil embargo. What is break-even LF now- at least pre-COVID-19?

Pre-COVID 70-75% would break even.

[catch22]

Cash flow. Surviving is goal #1. If it's not critical it isn't being fixed. We are rotating aircraft to spread around hours so we don't consume cycle or time (hours) parts too fast. It's pretty dark times right now.

Some cocktail napkin math based on some recent quarterly reports.

Daily cost to run United $83 million/day

Pre-COVID revenue: $88 million/day
Current revenue: $35 million/day which is likely way off. Realistically this number is closer to $0 Than it is $35 million

[catch22]

Some cocktail napkin math based on some recent quarterly reports.

Daily cost to run United $83 million/day

Pre-COVID revenue: $88 million/day
Current revenue: $35 million/day which is likely way off. Realistically this number is closer to $0 Than it is $35 million

This is where I get mad when people say let the airlines fail. Yes the optics of stock buybacks look bad. Heck, I don't agree with them in all instances either. But this is a capital intensive, low margin business. The airlines never had nor never will have the internal cash flow to fund large capital expenses. People want to fly on the newest airplanes for the cheapest price. The only way to do that is to get investors on board. We can't offer dividends, the only thing we can offer to the investment community is an appreciation of their assets (stocks). It is essential to return cash and value to shareholders in this business because there is really no other way to order hundreds of billions of dollars of aircraft, equipment, and technology without the investment community.

People think airlines are unfair, and sure in many ways it feels that way. But it is a dizzying thought to think of how much it costs to run one. We are damned if we do and damned if we don't.

[BoulderSooner]

Airlines could absolutely offer dividends. Also stock buy back. Has not proven to be in any way a boost to stock price. Those results are very very mixed.

[Executionist]

Dating myself, but I remember my airline pilot dad saying US airlines were profitable with 40-50% load factors in the 60's & 70's- pre-Arab oil embargo. What is break-even LF now- at least pre-COVID-19?

Thanks. Things sure have changed since my old man flew for Continental!

[Executionist]

Pre-COVID 70-75% would break even.

Thanks. Things are sure a lot different since the old man flew 707's & 727's for Continental!

[Executionist]

Just saw this :

Travelers passing through US TSA Checkpoints:

March 20, 2020: 593,167

March 20, 2019: 2,559,307

76.83% decrease

[gopokes88]

Cash flow. Surviving is goal #1. If it's not critical it isn't being fixed. We are rotating aircraft to spread around hours so we don't consume cycle or time (hours) parts too fast. It's pretty dark times right now.

Yep. General population ain’t quite grasping this is an extinction event, not a get some maintenance done.

Some of that is the airlines fault blowing through all their cash with buybacks.

You can’t let them fail though. Just creates a bigger mess.

We’ll see some regulation for minimum cash reserves for large publicly traded companies.

[catch22]

United spent 3% of operating income on share repurchases in the last 2 last years. Here are some of United's large expenses last year

Salaries: 12 Billion
Fuel: 8.9 billion
Landing fees: 2.5 billion
Common stock repurchases: 1.6 billion
Cash into the bank: 1 billion (2.8 billion in bank account at YE 2019)
Federal Income tax: 906 million

Airlines pump a ton of money into the economy and they surely didn't blow all of their cash on buybacks. Everyone has to be taken care of in a company. Employees, customers, and investors.

Also buybacks do provide the company the ability to sell stock and bring back cash, however no one could have predicted a global financial collapse affecting every sector. United stock was an asset that could be converted to cash if needed - now, no company has stock worth anything. Unless you are Clorox or Bayer. Easy to point fingers.

[gopokes88]

The problem with, you can sell it back later if you need the cash.

Your stock has plummeted when you need the cash.

Buybacks their own aren’t inherently evil but they do need to be restricted. You can’t say no problem here we just need $50 billion despite having spent $42 on buybacks the past 6 years.

[catch22]

If they put that money for share repurchase from the past 2 years in the bank instead that would fund the airline for approximately 26 days. There's no reasonable amount of money to say they should put in the bank that can save an airline from a complete collapse of demand. Even if they parked all of the airplanes, all rent, leases, and utilities frozen for 3 months. That money would only cover payroll for 80 days for employees to sit at home. And then it would cost billions to get the airline moving again.

This is just unprecedented. 10 billion in free cash in the bank would cover the company for a 90 day grounding. There probably aren't a lot of companies that can keep that much cash on hand, especially one with extremely high costs and thin margins such as airlines.

[catch22]

This isn't a failure of the airline model, this is a failure of the government to protect the economy. The airlines aren't looking for free money. They are looking for low interest loans and protection to ride out the storm. Just as every other industry.

Airline bad. Charged me for a bag.. Airline bad.

[CloudDeckMedia]

@catch22, I see that Emirates has suspended passenger flights but is still flying cargo. How much cargo is United hauling?