Covid-19 Economic Impact

[SEMIweather]

A whole lot of people in this thread not understanding the nature of exponential growth, and the fact that we're still at a relatively low point in the curve. Every other country that is ahead of us on the curve did all they could to avoid locking down until they got farther up the curve and realized they had no other option, because another thing that brings governments down is millions of people dying from a virus in a matter of months, which is where we'd be heading absent any mitigation measures.

[OKC Guy]

I really think we have plenty of hospital capacity, it's just there may be some need for overflow help and beds in certain spots for a period of time.

We should probably have a plan to do that. There are tons of empty or vastly under-utilized structures virtually everywhere (vacant retail spaces, churches, schools, etc.)

Look at all the AM/PM type medical clinics around the country. Could more easily convert them as they at least have some of the medical basics and would not have to start from scratch. Their spaces could add up fast.

[gopokes88]

Sounds like you have some real Mother/Daddy issues. I'd retort because you are so wrong, but you are so full of hate you would deny even the most obvious. I feel badly for you and whatever happened to you in your childhood.

Thanks bud.

I took a 50% pay cut yesterday.
I laid off 12 people who helped me build a company.
The company probably has revenue till April, at which point we go into hibernation mode.
I'll be out of my house by the end of summer to preserve cash. (assuming I can sell it)

My job opportunities coming out of college were toast because of the 2008 meltdown because boomers bought things they couldn't afford with easy credit.

But yeah I'm speaking because I'm mad at my dad or something.

[Pete]

2 months of shut down is the longest we could go without risking everything.

Hopefully, in a few more weeks any panic over tons of deaths will have subsided and the new fear will be basic survival, and then we'll start to get back to relative normalcy.

[gopokes88]

I know you are getting wiped out in the stock market, but hang on, take a deep breath. What you just typed is almost ban-worthy. You just lashed out at an entire generation with racist, sexist like vitriol. This is NOT a “Boomers did this to us” thing at all. Could you explain why you think “Boomers” are to blame? Do you not think plenty of gen-x and millennials are not in the machinery involved in your perceived generational attack on you?

We are literally going to shut down the entire economy and cause a depression to save already sick 70 and 80 year old boomers. That's whats happening.

[Rover]

We are literally going to shut down the entire economy and cause a depression to save already sick 70 and 80 year old boomers. That's whats happening.

So, basically, you want to kill 15% of so of the elderly to save yourself money? Way to go. Now that we know what you are all about, we can read your comments in perspective.

[gopokes88]

So, basically, you want to kill 15% of so of the elderly to save yourself money? Way to go. Now that we know what you are all about, we can read your comments in perspective.

Not just mine bro.

Everyone's. It's hitting me first because the oil and gas industry got hit with the virus first.

But it's coming for everyone else, you're about 2 weeks behind. Credit is already drying up.

[Rover]

Not just mine bro.

Everyone's. It's hitting me first because the oil and gas industry got hit with the virus first.

But it's coming for everyone else, you're about 2 weeks behind. Credit is already drying up.

So you are confirming you are okay with geronticide in favor of economics?

[Mr. Blue Sky]

You are lashing out. You have no idea what you are talking about. Older Americans are to blame for getting sick? The pandemic is fake? The spike will not come in a week? The deaths that rack up are all expendable? This is why we have generational wars. At least you’re not drafted and in some swamp in Vietnam, holding a rifle, waiting for an ambush from the North or the Viet Cong, watching your friends die. That’s s just one part of the generation you are lashing out against. I agree with Mug, you are truly full of hate.

Also, the second time “they” have done this to “us.”???
if this was race or sex instead of age — you’d get the boot from Pete, and rightfully so.

[TheTravellers]

Not just mine bro.

Everyone's. It's hitting me first because the oil and gas industry got hit with the virus first.

But it's coming for everyone else, you're about 2 weeks behind. Credit is already drying up.

I'm also concerned for everyone. I work for a bank, wife works for the House of Reps, we have no debt other than the house, so we won't lose our jobs or really have any hardship, we're very, very lucky. But I'm incredibly concerned for the entire nation (or world) going into a recession, if not a depression, and all the pain and suffering (both economically and physically) for hundreds of millions (if not billions) of people if this goes on too long (and no, we don't know how long it will go on or how long too long would be yet).

[Edmond Hausfrau]

I really think we have plenty of hospital capacity, it's just there may be some need for overflow help and beds in certain spots for a period of time.

We should probably have a plan to do that. There are tons of empty or vastly under-utilized structures virtually everywhere (vacant retail spaces, churches, schools, etc.)

How do you plan to address staffing?

[BoulderSooner]

A whole lot of people in this thread not understanding the nature of exponential growth, and the fact that we're still at a relatively low point in the curve. Every other country that is ahead of us on the curve did all they could to avoid locking down until they got farther up the curve and realized they had no other option, because another thing that brings governments down is millions of people dying from a virus in a matter of months, which is where we'd be heading absent any mitigation measures.

if everyone in this country got this virus tomorrow likely less than 2 mil people would die ..

also this was in the united states in mid Jan before it was in itay

[Pete]

How do you plan to address staffing?

Shift healthcare workers from areas where there is less need.

Hire unskilled labor to help out.

[catch22]

Our value-profit-over-everything capitalist system would never build hospitals for them to sit empty and accumulate maintenance costs on a daily basis (they couldn't just sit there empty with no power, water, etc. just collecting dust, they'd have to be kept in a "ready" state, I'd think, along with resupplying every so often because drugs expire, etc.)

I am talking about government owned and operated facilities just like airbases and army installations. We have the money to keep those facilities in close to ready states all day everyday. Once activated they are brought online. Many have never been, nor will never be used. A virus can harm as just as much as a missile attack. Why not have medical facilities ready to go?

[jccouger]

Saving peoples lives should always be priority #1

If it ruins the economy then so be it. We are dealing with a worldwide catastrophe.

I don't know how you can just point to our severe cases when Italy is losing 400+ people a day. That will be our fate if we just decide making some money is worth losing our parents & grandparents over.

Economy's can be rebuilt. People are so damn selfish.

[Pete]

Saving peoples lives should always be priority #1

If it ruins the economy then so be it. We are dealing with a worldwide catastrophe.

I don't know how you can just point to our severe cases when Italy is losing 400+ people a day. That will be our fate if we just decide making some money is worth losing our parents & grandparents over.

Economy's can be rebuilt. People are so damn selfish.

We also have to consider the possibility that the economy could completely collapse and that our entire system could implode, which would put many more people at serious risk.

[BoulderSooner]

I am talking about government owned and operated facilities just like airbases and army installations. We have the money to keep those facilities in close to ready states all day everyday. Once activated they are brought online. Many have never been, nor will never be used. A virus can harm as just as much as a missile attack. Why not have medical facilities ready to go?

because you don't ban people from builing a house in a 1000 year flood zone


and the military bases are not there "in case" we get attacked ..

[AP]

Saving peoples lives should always be priority #1

If it ruins the economy then so be it. We are dealing with a worldwide catastrophe.

I don't know how you can just point to our severe cases when Italy is losing 400+ people a day. That will be our fate if we just decide making some money is worth losing our parents & grandparents over.

Economy's can be rebuilt. People are so damn selfish.

I agree. I am so thankful the people on this board are not the decision-makers.

[CloudDeckMedia]

How do you plan to address staffing?

It's harder than people think.

[gopokes88]

Saving peoples lives should always be priority #1

If it ruins the economy then so be it. We are dealing with a worldwide catastrophe.

I don't know how you can just point to our severe cases when Italy is losing 400+ people a day. That will be our fate if we just decide making some money is worth losing our parents & grandparents over.

Economy's can be rebuilt. People are so damn selfish.

So maybe but maybe not. Here's how this modern economy works.

-Companies use way too much debt. They grow with debt. They make day to day bills with debt. Debt debt debt debt.
-Banks lend all this debt. Banks can lend 10X debt as they have cash. If a bank has $1,000,000 in cash, they can lend $10,000,000.
-Lack of cash. The airline industry is asking for $50 billion in assistance. The airline industry over the past 10 years has spent $43 billion on stock buybacks to juice returns. They have no cash. That's the point.

Then something like this happens.

-Revenue dries up because we all have to sit at home.
-Corporations have no revenue, they can't service the debt.
-They default and because they've defaulted, many others now have to take a loss while simultaneously their revenues are drying up.
-Those companies now default. This is what I mean by systemic. It goes everywhere to everyone.
- Now people get laid off stop making credit card, car, mortgages payments. They start defaulting. All those waiters Mayor Holt just laid off? They have student loans. That's a trillion dollars in loans. (remember 10X leverage)
-Now remember that 10 to 1 ratio? For every dollar of default that's $10 in cash disappearing forever. $1 billion default impacts reserves in a $10 billion way. This is when banks start running dry. ATM's don't spit out cash.

-The Fed and the Treasury are now shooting trillion dollar bullets at everything and everywhere. If it works we have severe economic pain for 4-5 years then slowly recover. That's if this WORKS.
-If they run out of bullets and cant finance, or people lose faith in the dollar. You are looking a total and complete economic collapse followed by martial law, succession, and a break down in society.

This scenario happened in 2008, but then though it was just the banks and housing.

This time its the entire economy coming to a halt hitting every single industry all at once. This has the potential to overwhelm the financial system just like they keep saying hospitals are going to be overwhelmed. I don't mean just stocks. I mean pensions, life insurance, 401ks, every bit of society.

For this entire thing to go belly up, because we are all so levered in debt takes about 60-90 days.

Remind me how long we might have to quarantine again according to scientists? I saw one that says 180. Saw another to really flatten that curve and save as many as possible 18 months.

[OKC Guy]

Saving peoples lives should always be priority #1

If it ruins the economy then so be it. We are dealing with a worldwide catastrophe.

I don't know how you can just point to our severe cases when Italy is losing 400+ people a day. That will be our fate if we just decide making some money is worth losing our parents & grandparents over.

Economy's can be rebuilt. People are so damn selfish.

Look, I see both sides in this discussion.

Do we shut down America when 30,000 die annually from flu?

Do we shut down America when 35,000 die annually of car wrecks?

If not why don’t you advocate for it?

I fall in the middle. We can do both. Support those most at risk and let others have ability for free enterprise.

If our economy completely fails it will not be like The Great Depression. Back then people waited in line all day to get soup or food. The difference was that line was orderly. They still respected society norms. Nowadays if we had the same it would be mass panic and storming and looting. Times have changed. We cannot let our economy fail else we will lose many more people compared to China Virus. We have to find a balancing act.

[gopokes88]

This is the economic thread. Not the save everyone we can thread. We're hear to talk economic impacts.

This has the potential to be a depression. Nobody living on this earth has felt what we maybe about to go through.

I didn't even mention the effects of a decade of low interest rates and asset valuations soaring as a result. Basically, that will be another bubble popping soon. (Think your home value)

[Pete]

We are not talking about recession -- that's a certainty now.

There is a real concern about total economic collapse and maybe even the collapse of our entire system of government, which means many, many more would suffer and die.


If there hasn't been a big spike in *severe* cases in a few weeks, we are just going to have to get on with things with extreme caution, especially in regards to the elderly.

[Mr. Blue Sky]

So maybe but maybe not. Here's how this modern economy works.

-Companies use way too much debt. They grow with debt. They make day to day bills with debt. Debt debt debt debt.
-Banks lend all this debt. Banks can lend 10X debt as they have cash. If a bank has $1,000,000 in cash, they can lend $10,000,000.
-Lack of cash. The airline industry is asking for $50 billion in assistance. The airline industry over the past 10 years has spent $43 billion on stock buybacks to juice returns. They have no cash. That's the point.

Then something like this happens.

-Revenue dries up because we all have to sit at home.
-Corporations have no revenue, they can't service the debt.
-They default and because they've defaulted, many others now have to take a loss while simultaneously their revenues are drying up.
-Those companies now default. This is what I mean by systemic. It goes everywhere to everyone.
- Now people get laid off stop making credit card, car, mortgages payments. They start defaulting. All those waiters Mayor Holt just laid off? They have student loans. That's a trillion dollars in loans. (remember 10X leverage)
-Now remember that 10 to 1 ratio? For every dollar of default that's $10 in cash disappearing forever. $1 billion default impacts reserves in a $10 billion way. This is when banks start running dry. ATM's don't spit out cash.

-The Fed and the Treasury are now shooting trillion dollar bullets at everything and everywhere. If it works we have severe economic pain for 4-5 years then slowly recover. That's if this WORKS.
-If they run out of bullets and cant finance, or people lose faith in the dollar. You are looking a total and complete economic collapse followed by martial law, succession, and a break down in society.

This scenario happened in 2008, but then though it was just the banks and housing.

This time its the entire economy coming to a halt hitting every single industry all at once. This has the potential to overwhelm the financial system just like they keep saying hospitals are going to be overwhelmed. I don't mean just stocks. I mean pensions, life insurance, 401ks, every bit of society.

For this entire thing to go belly up, because we are all so levered in debt takes about 60-90 days.

Remind me how long we might have to quarantine again according to scientists? I saw one that says 180. Saw another to really flatten I’m that curve and save as many as possible 18 months.

The problem — from my viewpoint — is putting all the blame on Boomers.
You blamed the Boomers for 2008.
A lot of people understand the conflicts of our economy and the crisis, but we’re not here blaming an entire generation. Who is the snowflake now?

[BoulderSooner]

-The Fed and the Treasury are now shooting trillion dollar bullets at everything and everywhere. If it works we have severe economic pain for 4-5 years then slowly recover. That's if this WORKS.
-If they run out of bullets and cant finance, or people lose faith in the dollar. You are looking a total and complete economic collapse followed by martial law, succession, and a break down in society.



.

this is way more possible than most on this thread realize ...

one good thing is the faith in the dollar will remain higher than the alternatives .. which buys the USA a little more time ...

but this is not good ..