Covid-19 Economic Impact

[catch22]

[mkjeeves]

^We are currently at 2028 according to the John Hopkins site. Date and number does match day 10. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

[mugofbeer]

The more tests and kits used, the high the numbers will go. I'm more interested in the number hospitalized.

[catch22]

[catch22]

the bottom chart compares available seat miles relative to the base schedule that was published before cuts and how different scenarios will return those ASM's back into inventory. ASM's are a standard unit of measure of capacity for airlines.

A 50 seat airplane flying exactly 100 miles provides 5,000 ASM's of capacity, for example.

[SEMIweather]

That second chart is brutal, especially given that in all likelihood, the "all clear" date is going to be much later than April 15th.

[Pete]

Dow is now down 1,400 and below 20,000.

I can't see any way this doesn't get a lot worse until we get on the backside of the infection curve.

[catch22]

Delta now parking 600 airplanes, up from the previous 300 of last week. Cutting domestic capacity by 70% from base schedule and 85% international.

[Pete]

Dow now down over 2,100 points today.

[BoulderSooner]

this economic impact is and will be worse than the virus ... and in the end might not be worth it .

[TheTravellers]

this economic impact is and will be worse than the virus ... and in the end might not be worth it .

For once, I agree with you, but not sure what other options we have.

[Pete]

I posted this on the restaurant closing thread:

Everyone is focusing on restaurants and hotels, but virtually every small- and medium-sized business is going to be screwed if this goes for more than 2 months.

The best hope is for longer term SBA loans. I'm already in the queue. They are talking about up to $2 million amortized out up to 30 years at a low interest rate. That will be the key for many businesses being able to come out of this.

[BoulderSooner]

For once, I agree with you, but not sure what other options we have.

the ship to do something different i think has already sailed ....

what poeple need to understand is that the experts are not saying that what we are doing will stop anyone from getting this virus they are saying we will save some (unknown) number of lives because the hospitals wont get fully overrun ..

but if these experts are correct 1,000,000 + people are going to die from this .. anyway

and we will also have destroyed the economy and caused X amount of other deaths

[gopokes88]

this economic impact is and will be worse than the virus ... and in the end might not be worth it .

It won't be.

Should have let it spread like wildfire and be done in 4-6 weeks.

And before everyone slams me, I have a

Mom
Dad
Grandmother
Aunt
Uncle

all in that high risk category.

The depression that follows this won't be worth. For me or them.

Boomers man. They'll put the millennial generation through 2 massive economic contractions in 12 years with a 3rd on the way (debt crisis). Way to leave the country better than you found it.

[BoulderSooner]

WSJ op ed basicly said we should have sheltered the old and at risk and everyone else should have lived their lives ..

[gopokes88]

This is the tip of the economic iceberg. We're in inning 1. You've only lost some retirement funds. Go ahead and kiss that goodbye. You'll never retire.

-Ready for nationwide housing prices to fall 20-30% because everyone is out of a job?
-Ready for credit shortages? The student loan and personal unsecured loan defaults will be through the roof. That's 1.3 trillion. That'll go systemic. It's 3-6 months out, and what if the next point is true. You know like waiters and servers carry huge amounts of it. They're unemployed today thanks to government leadership.
-The Fed/US Treasury keeps firing $1 trillion bullets every month, and runs out of capacity
-Then comes massive asset deflation mixed with rampant inflation

Millions may have died, but in this scenario hundreds and hundreds of millions are going to suffer severely.

Then trump will probably suspend the election and we start teetering on a total breakdown of society.

[jdizzle]

This is the tip of the economic iceberg. We're in inning 1. You've only lost some retirement funds. Go ahead and kiss that goodbye. You'll never retire.

-Ready for nationwide housing prices to fall 20-30% because everyone is out of a job?
-Ready for credit shortages? The student loan and personal unsecured loan defaults will be through the roof. That's 1.3 trillion. That'll go systemic. It's 3-6 months out, and what if the next point is true. You know like waiters and servers carry huge amounts of it. They're unemployed today thanks to government leadership.
-The Fed/US Treasury keeps firing $1 trillion bullets every month, and runs out of capacity
-Then comes massive asset deflation mixed with rampant inflation

Millions may have died, but in this scenario hundreds and hundreds of millions are going to suffer severely.

Then trump will probably suspend the election and we start teetering on a total breakdown of society.

I would say "Do you need a push?" but you are already way off the ledge of negativity. We may as well all stop living to save our burden on society, right?

[Pete]

As long as we don't see some incredible spike in critical cases (and that has not been happening anywhere) I could see a scenario where we just take a "we have to get on with things" approach after a couple of months.

There is really no way our economy can survive a complete shut down for 6 months or more and that reality is starting to hit home.

So, hopefully we'll be able to make a responsible judgment in 30 to 60 days that yes, there are going to be cases, but our healthcare system can handle the most extreme cases so everyone needs to get back to work.

Hopefully.

[BoulderSooner]

I would say "Do you need a push?" but you are already way off the ledge of negativity. We may as well all stop living to save our burden on society, right?

he is not wrong a lot of that will likely happen

[gopokes88]

As long as we don't see some incredible spike in critical cases (and that has not been happening anywhere) I could see a scenario where we just take a "we have to get on with things" approach after a couple of months.

There is really no way our economy can survive a complete shut down for 6 months or more and that reality is starting to hit home.

So, hopefully we'll be able to make a responsible judgment in 30 to 60 days that yes, there are going to be cases, but our healthcare system can handle the most extreme cases so everyone needs to get back to work.

Hopefully.

The flatten the curve assessment was done by scientists, without any economic people getting to weigh in.

It's time reevaluate whether flatten the curve does the most good for the most people. This guy says 18 months to "flatten the curve entirely". In 18 months America will have collapsed.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...643357696.html

[jn1780]

As long as we don't see some incredible spike in critical cases (and that has not been happening anywhere) I could see a scenario where we just take a "we have to get on with things" approach after a couple of months.

There is really no way our economy can survive a complete shut down for 6 months or more and that reality is starting to hit home.

So, hopefully we'll be able to make a responsible judgment in 30 to 60 days that yes, there are going to be cases, but our healthcare system can handle the most extreme cases so everyone needs to get back to work.

Hopefully.

Agreed Pete, but the government has to be seen as doing something. I will be interested to see what the government decides to do next month.

[Pete]

The flatten the curve assessment was done by scientists, without any economic people getting to weigh in.

This situation is completely unprecedented.

Fortunately, we live in the information age where we can monitor other countries and how the virus is progressing.

In the end, it's likely we'll come to the conclusion we just have to keep going and as long as we prioritize the most critical cases, there is every chance our hospitals won't become overwhelmed, which has always been the main concern.

[Stew]

Is cash king right now?

[jn1780]

he is not wrong a lot of that will likely happen

I thought his numbers were still optimistic. The dollar is backed by a working population. We're not fooling anyone when at least half the country are out of work.

[BoulderSooner]

Is cash king right now?

i think yes i would not be in anything but very very select stocks and even those are risky the federal gov is going to back money market funds the same as cash for a long time so they should be ok