2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

[gopokes88]

Right. Just pointing out that it is an artificial number. March will be fine. We (UA) are holding on to the low 70% load factors right now systemwide which is amazing given the circumstances.

April bookings are down 70% systemwide domestic and greater than 100% international (Passengers are canceling itineraries). For comparison, United's future booking were down 40% following 9/11.

April will be the true bloodbath. 30% domestic load factors will be tough.

Edit: by fine i mean relative to april and may

In theory there’s still time to recover. If it turns out Wuhan Virus is seasonal like the flu or other colds we’ll see the spread really start to slow and panic subside.


I’m flying tomorrow, flights are getting so empty it’s pretty much safe to fly.

[catch22]

In theory there’s still time to recover. If it turns out Wuhan Virus is seasonal like the flu or other colds we’ll see the spread really start to slow and panic subside.


I’m flying tomorrow, flights are getting so empty it’s pretty much safe to fly.

That is a good point. Right now UA is planning on the worst case scenario which is 30% loads in April and May, and a 10-point increase every month until normal. For example 40% in June, 50% July, 60% August. Etc. That is the doomsday scenario and I don't think it will be that bad. But I am encouraged by their handling of this. Just crossing our fingers that we can avoid layoffs. It costs a lot of money to run an airline. Hundreds of millions per month in expenses. That's easy to manage when you have hundreds of millions in revenue. Cut off the revenue by 70% and fixed costs remain largely the same whether the airplanes are parked or flying. It's a real crunch.

[gopokes88]

That is a good point. Right now UA is planning on the worst case scenario which is 30% loads in April and May, and a 10-point increase every month until normal. For example 40% in June, 50% July, 60% August. Etc. That is the doomsday scenario and I don't think it will be that bad. But I am encouraged by their handling of this. Just crossing our fingers that we can avoid layoffs. It costs a lot of money to run an airline. Hundreds of millions per month in expenses. That's easy to manage when you have hundreds of millions in revenue. Cut off the revenue by 70% and fixed costs remain largely the same whether the airplanes are parked or flying. It's a real crunch.

Yeah most people don't understand when you're running a 10% net profit, doesn't take for that to go negative in a hurry.

Typically, smart management, doesn't make layoffs for temporary disruptions to business. The response for disruption isn't "let's have more disruption." Be calm, steady, and ride out the storm.

Layoffs are reserved for material changes to how the business must function and operate.

Most aren't blessed with smart management though.

[BoulderSooner]

i would guess that this massive dip in the price of oil would set the airlines up for massive profit down the road ??

[amocore]

Plenty of round trip direct to Phoenix for $ 160 on SW and AA right now.

[BG918]

I've got an international trip (to Africa) coming up at the end of the month. Still planning on going but worried United will cancel my flight(s). I am flying through Frankfurt on the way home so really interested in know what ends up happening with the "enhanced screening".

[Bellaboo]

I've got an international trip (to Africa) coming up at the end of the month. Still planning on going but worried United will cancel my flight(s). I am flying through Frankfurt on the way home so really interested in know what ends up happening with the "enhanced screening".

If you are flying through Frankfurt you might not be able to get back.... Go through England.

[BG918]

If you are flying through Frankfurt you might not be able to get back.... Go through England.

Considering rebooking for later in the year.

I’m afraid this pandemic will be similar to 9/11 for the airlines.

[catch22]

Considering rebooking for later in the year.

I’m afraid this pandemic will be similar to 9/11 for the airlines.

I'd rebook. I would be surprised if we are flying at all in 3 weeks.

[BoulderSooner]

I'd rebook. I would be surprised if we are flying at all in 3 weeks.

how long do you think that will last??

[catch22]

how long do you think that will last??

Everyday is exponentially more grim than the last. I have no idea. If the next few days are as bad (reaction wise) as the last I certainly see a situation where the entire country grinds to a halt including the airlines.

if China is any example, it could be a month? They are starting to get more flights going in domestic China now, so they seem to be through the worst of it but it took them shutting the entire country down through brute force for 70 days.
I think the economic dominoes are falling faster than the health dominoes in the US. The panic is more severe than the condition, and that's bad news for everyone.

[GoThunder]

We have a vacation to the west coast planned starting tomorrow. I’m not worried about getting out there, but I’m wondering what the chances are our flight home gets canceled.

[catch22]

We have a vacation to the west coast planned starting tomorrow. I’m not worried about getting out there, but I’m wondering what the chances are our flight home gets canceled.

I've thought about taking advantge of the empty planes and go to Hawaii but afraid of getting stuck out there if the hammer drops and cancels happen in mass. Right now we aren't doing any close in cancels except for those to comply with government restrictions. All cancels other than those are weeks to months out to reduce forward capacity.

However I think the unprecedented is fast approaching where demand falls off so sharply and the panic spreads to the cities that operate the airports where they essentially close the terminal buildings. This, or the administration, cancels all travel. I see the former happening more than the latter. All it will take is 1 airport to do it, and just as we are seeing with other activites once one is suspended all will follow suit in quick order. How quick will DEN or DFW follow if LAX for example just turns off the lights and locks the doors as a precaution to the greater LA area? I bet within 24 hours of that every hub will be closed.

I really really hope it doesn't go that way but all it will take is 1 big airport to start it. This reaction is unpredictable and unprecedented

[BG918]

I really really hope it doesn't go that way but all it will take is 1 big airport to start it. This reaction is unpredictable and unprecedented

I'm worried that may happen as well. The news seemingly gets worse every day. IF that does happen and the country essentially grounds to a halt there will be severe economic repercussions. The oil & gas recession Oklahoma is experiencing will look like small potatoes to what will happen to the entire country (and world).

[catch22]

I'm worried that may happen as well. The news seemingly gets worse every day. IF that does happen and the country essentially grounds to a halt there will be severe economic repercussions. The oil & gas recession Oklahoma is experiencing will look like small potatoes to what will happen to the entire country (and world).

Just look at my posts a few days ago in this thread. That is how fast this is snowballing out of control. 2 days ago I thought this would blow over. Last night I have come to the conclusion that I will actually be surprised if I am at work in 3 weeks. This is absolutely nuts. I don't get it but I am here for the ride just like everybody else.

[CloudDeckMedia]

We have (had?) domestic travel planned for this spring...
Nashville conference cancelled in March.
Louisville marathon will likely cancel in April.
Nashville graduation will likely cancel in May.
Seattle marathon will likely cancel in June.
Europe - we were just starting to talk about a summer trip, but...
Every trip involved airline, car rental, hotel, local spending. All cancelled.

[catch22]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-con...204627351.html

Trump considers travel ban to CA and WA. This is no bueno!

[catch22]

Loads continue to drop off.

Today's UA systemwide load factor is 52%. Yesterday was 54%

A week ago our systemwide load factor was 69%.

DEN leads the system at 65%, IAD and SFO are bringing up the tail end at 44% and 46% respectively.

[catch22]

OKC's loads are actually surprisingly well. Honestly some of the highest in the system tomorrow based on some spot checking.

I do not want to turn this political, but I wonder if there is a correlation between cities that are more conservative having higher load factors (I.e. believing this is not serious enough to cancel plans) while more liberal cities have lower load factors as people are listening more to what is being told to them.

I say that as a liberal myself, who doesn't really have much concern for the virus** itself but think the panic is certainly more worrying.

** I am taking it seriously by limiting exposure and practicing good hygiene. But I am not planning for the end of the world. I would step foot on an airplane to europe tomorrow if I knew I could get back. Since the cat is out of the bag globally, my risk of exposure or acquisition is pretty much the same no matter where I am. That's the way I look at it.

[mugofbeer]

OKC's loads are actually surprisingly well. Honestly some of the highest in the system tomorrow based on some spot checking.

I do not want to turn this political, but I wonder if there is a correlation between cities that are more conservative having higher load factors (I.e. believing this is not serious enough to cancel plans) while more liberal cities have lower load factors as people are listening more to what is being told to them.

I say that as a liberal myself, who doesn't really have much concern for the virus** itself but think the panic is certainly more worrying.

** I am taking it seriously by limiting exposure and practicing good hygiene. But I am not planning for the end of the world. I would step foot on an airplane to europe tomorrow if I knew I could get back. Since the cat is out of the bag globally, my risk of exposure or acquisition is pretty much the same no matter where I am. That's the way I look at it.

Denver's conservative? Not in 15 years!

[BG918]

I would mainly be worried I could get stuck if they shut down the airports. I doubt my flights in two weeks are even flying anyway.

[catch22]

Denver's conservative? Not in 15 years!

I never said that. I am talking about line stations. Hubs like denver have originating traffic from 100 or more cities. The data is largely irrelevant in this application.

Tomorrow 3/13:

OKC - 86% load factor
TUL - 86%
OMA - 81%
MCI - 81%
ABQ - 74%
DFW - 74% (not a ua hub)
BNA - 68%
AUS - 67%
STL - 62%
MEM - 60%
ORF - 59%
PDX - 58%
SAt - 57%
MSY - 56%

[LakeEffect]

Fascinating. Thanks Catch. I'm taking that similar outlook and approach. Have a trip to HNL for work scheduled 30 March - 2 Apr, and I'm hoping the meeting doesn't get cancelled. When I booked the flights on Tuesday, I was able to get seats on each flight without neighbors... we'll see how it all progresses.

[catch22]

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...5511561cba7c39

Delta to cut capacity by 40%, park 300 airplanes. I would expect similar announcements from the other carriers soon.

I just received 3 "scheduling" type emails from the hub manager in denver, there are 3 employee "town halls" next week. They are timed to catch employees of all shifts. I have a feeling I know what those will be about.

[Zuplar]

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...5511561cba7c39

Delta to cut capacity by 40%, park 300 airplanes. I would expect similar announcements from the other carriers soon.

I just received 3 "scheduling" type emails from the hub manager in denver, there are 3 employee "town halls" next week. They are timed to catch employees of all shifts. I have a feeling I know what those will be about.

I hope the best for you, but just know that when all this clears up we'll all need a vacation so hopefully anything that happens is temporary.