-We are moving from containment to care.
-We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.
-40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
-[We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year. Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]
-The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.
-This assumes no drug is found effective and made available.
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