Widgets Magazine
Page 5 of 20 FirstFirst 12345678910 ... LastLast
Results 101 to 125 of 485

Thread: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

  1. #101

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by catch22 View Post
    Right. Just pointing out that it is an artificial number. March will be fine. We (UA) are holding on to the low 70% load factors right now systemwide which is amazing given the circumstances.

    April bookings are down 70% systemwide domestic and greater than 100% international (Passengers are canceling itineraries). For comparison, United's future booking were down 40% following 9/11.

    April will be the true bloodbath. 30% domestic load factors will be tough.

    Edit: by fine i mean relative to april and may
    In theory there’s still time to recover. If it turns out Wuhan Virus is seasonal like the flu or other colds we’ll see the spread really start to slow and panic subside.


    I’m flying tomorrow, flights are getting so empty it’s pretty much safe to fly.

  2. #102

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by gopokes88 View Post
    In theory there’s still time to recover. If it turns out Wuhan Virus is seasonal like the flu or other colds we’ll see the spread really start to slow and panic subside.


    I’m flying tomorrow, flights are getting so empty it’s pretty much safe to fly.
    That is a good point. Right now UA is planning on the worst case scenario which is 30% loads in April and May, and a 10-point increase every month until normal. For example 40% in June, 50% July, 60% August. Etc. That is the doomsday scenario and I don't think it will be that bad. But I am encouraged by their handling of this. Just crossing our fingers that we can avoid layoffs. It costs a lot of money to run an airline. Hundreds of millions per month in expenses. That's easy to manage when you have hundreds of millions in revenue. Cut off the revenue by 70% and fixed costs remain largely the same whether the airplanes are parked or flying. It's a real crunch.

  3. #103

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by catch22 View Post
    That is a good point. Right now UA is planning on the worst case scenario which is 30% loads in April and May, and a 10-point increase every month until normal. For example 40% in June, 50% July, 60% August. Etc. That is the doomsday scenario and I don't think it will be that bad. But I am encouraged by their handling of this. Just crossing our fingers that we can avoid layoffs. It costs a lot of money to run an airline. Hundreds of millions per month in expenses. That's easy to manage when you have hundreds of millions in revenue. Cut off the revenue by 70% and fixed costs remain largely the same whether the airplanes are parked or flying. It's a real crunch.
    Yeah most people don't understand when you're running a 10% net profit, doesn't take for that to go negative in a hurry.

    Typically, smart management, doesn't make layoffs for temporary disruptions to business. The response for disruption isn't "let's have more disruption." Be calm, steady, and ride out the storm.

    Layoffs are reserved for material changes to how the business must function and operate.

    Most aren't blessed with smart management though.

  4. #104

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    i would guess that this massive dip in the price of oil would set the airlines up for massive profit down the road ??

  5. #105

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Plenty of round trip direct to Phoenix for $ 160 on SW and AA right now.

  6. #106

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    I've got an international trip (to Africa) coming up at the end of the month. Still planning on going but worried United will cancel my flight(s). I am flying through Frankfurt on the way home so really interested in know what ends up happening with the "enhanced screening".

  7. #107

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
    I've got an international trip (to Africa) coming up at the end of the month. Still planning on going but worried United will cancel my flight(s). I am flying through Frankfurt on the way home so really interested in know what ends up happening with the "enhanced screening".
    If you are flying through Frankfurt you might not be able to get back.... Go through England.

  8. #108

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Bellaboo View Post
    If you are flying through Frankfurt you might not be able to get back.... Go through England.
    Considering rebooking for later in the year.

    I’m afraid this pandemic will be similar to 9/11 for the airlines.

  9. #109

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
    Considering rebooking for later in the year.

    I’m afraid this pandemic will be similar to 9/11 for the airlines.
    I'd rebook. I would be surprised if we are flying at all in 3 weeks.

  10. #110

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by catch22 View Post
    I'd rebook. I would be surprised if we are flying at all in 3 weeks.
    how long do you think that will last??

  11. #111

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by BoulderSooner View Post
    how long do you think that will last??
    Everyday is exponentially more grim than the last. I have no idea. If the next few days are as bad (reaction wise) as the last I certainly see a situation where the entire country grinds to a halt including the airlines.

    if China is any example, it could be a month? They are starting to get more flights going in domestic China now, so they seem to be through the worst of it but it took them shutting the entire country down through brute force for 70 days.
    I think the economic dominoes are falling faster than the health dominoes in the US. The panic is more severe than the condition, and that's bad news for everyone.

  12. #112

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    We have a vacation to the west coast planned starting tomorrow. I’m not worried about getting out there, but I’m wondering what the chances are our flight home gets canceled.

  13. #113

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by GoThunder View Post
    We have a vacation to the west coast planned starting tomorrow. I’m not worried about getting out there, but I’m wondering what the chances are our flight home gets canceled.
    I've thought about taking advantge of the empty planes and go to Hawaii but afraid of getting stuck out there if the hammer drops and cancels happen in mass. Right now we aren't doing any close in cancels except for those to comply with government restrictions. All cancels other than those are weeks to months out to reduce forward capacity.

    However I think the unprecedented is fast approaching where demand falls off so sharply and the panic spreads to the cities that operate the airports where they essentially close the terminal buildings. This, or the administration, cancels all travel. I see the former happening more than the latter. All it will take is 1 airport to do it, and just as we are seeing with other activites once one is suspended all will follow suit in quick order. How quick will DEN or DFW follow if LAX for example just turns off the lights and locks the doors as a precaution to the greater LA area? I bet within 24 hours of that every hub will be closed.

    I really really hope it doesn't go that way but all it will take is 1 big airport to start it. This reaction is unpredictable and unprecedented

  14. #114

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by catch22 View Post
    I really really hope it doesn't go that way but all it will take is 1 big airport to start it. This reaction is unpredictable and unprecedented
    I'm worried that may happen as well. The news seemingly gets worse every day. IF that does happen and the country essentially grounds to a halt there will be severe economic repercussions. The oil & gas recession Oklahoma is experiencing will look like small potatoes to what will happen to the entire country (and world).

  15. #115

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
    I'm worried that may happen as well. The news seemingly gets worse every day. IF that does happen and the country essentially grounds to a halt there will be severe economic repercussions. The oil & gas recession Oklahoma is experiencing will look like small potatoes to what will happen to the entire country (and world).
    Just look at my posts a few days ago in this thread. That is how fast this is snowballing out of control. 2 days ago I thought this would blow over. Last night I have come to the conclusion that I will actually be surprised if I am at work in 3 weeks. This is absolutely nuts. I don't get it but I am here for the ride just like everybody else.

  16. #116

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    We have (had?) domestic travel planned for this spring...
    Nashville conference cancelled in March.
    Louisville marathon will likely cancel in April.
    Nashville graduation will likely cancel in May.
    Seattle marathon will likely cancel in June.
    Europe - we were just starting to talk about a summer trip, but...
    Every trip involved airline, car rental, hotel, local spending. All cancelled.

  17. #117

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-con...204627351.html

    Trump considers travel ban to CA and WA. This is no bueno!

  18. #118

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Loads continue to drop off.

    Today's UA systemwide load factor is 52%. Yesterday was 54%

    A week ago our systemwide load factor was 69%.

    DEN leads the system at 65%, IAD and SFO are bringing up the tail end at 44% and 46% respectively.

  19. #119

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    OKC's loads are actually surprisingly well. Honestly some of the highest in the system tomorrow based on some spot checking.

    I do not want to turn this political, but I wonder if there is a correlation between cities that are more conservative having higher load factors (I.e. believing this is not serious enough to cancel plans) while more liberal cities have lower load factors as people are listening more to what is being told to them.

    I say that as a liberal myself, who doesn't really have much concern for the virus** itself but think the panic is certainly more worrying.

    ** I am taking it seriously by limiting exposure and practicing good hygiene. But I am not planning for the end of the world. I would step foot on an airplane to europe tomorrow if I knew I could get back. Since the cat is out of the bag globally, my risk of exposure or acquisition is pretty much the same no matter where I am. That's the way I look at it.

  20. Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by catch22 View Post
    OKC's loads are actually surprisingly well. Honestly some of the highest in the system tomorrow based on some spot checking.

    I do not want to turn this political, but I wonder if there is a correlation between cities that are more conservative having higher load factors (I.e. believing this is not serious enough to cancel plans) while more liberal cities have lower load factors as people are listening more to what is being told to them.

    I say that as a liberal myself, who doesn't really have much concern for the virus** itself but think the panic is certainly more worrying.

    ** I am taking it seriously by limiting exposure and practicing good hygiene. But I am not planning for the end of the world. I would step foot on an airplane to europe tomorrow if I knew I could get back. Since the cat is out of the bag globally, my risk of exposure or acquisition is pretty much the same no matter where I am. That's the way I look at it.
    Denver's conservative? Not in 15 years!

  21. #121

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    I would mainly be worried I could get stuck if they shut down the airports. I doubt my flights in two weeks are even flying anyway.

  22. #122

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mugofbeer View Post
    Denver's conservative? Not in 15 years!
    I never said that. I am talking about line stations. Hubs like denver have originating traffic from 100 or more cities. The data is largely irrelevant in this application.

    Tomorrow 3/13:

    OKC - 86% load factor
    TUL - 86%
    OMA - 81%
    MCI - 81%
    ABQ - 74%
    DFW - 74% (not a ua hub)
    BNA - 68%
    AUS - 67%
    STL - 62%
    MEM - 60%
    ORF - 59%
    PDX - 58%
    SAt - 57%
    MSY - 56%

  23. #123

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Fascinating. Thanks Catch. I'm taking that similar outlook and approach. Have a trip to HNL for work scheduled 30 March - 2 Apr, and I'm hoping the meeting doesn't get cancelled. When I booked the flights on Tuesday, I was able to get seats on each flight without neighbors... we'll see how it all progresses.

  24. #124

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...5511561cba7c39

    Delta to cut capacity by 40%, park 300 airplanes. I would expect similar announcements from the other carriers soon.

    I just received 3 "scheduling" type emails from the hub manager in denver, there are 3 employee "town halls" next week. They are timed to catch employees of all shifts. I have a feeling I know what those will be about.

  25. #125

    Default Re: 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by catch22 View Post
    https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...5511561cba7c39

    Delta to cut capacity by 40%, park 300 airplanes. I would expect similar announcements from the other carriers soon.

    I just received 3 "scheduling" type emails from the hub manager in denver, there are 3 employee "town halls" next week. They are timed to catch employees of all shifts. I have a feeling I know what those will be about.
    I hope the best for you, but just know that when all this clears up we'll all need a vacation so hopefully anything that happens is temporary.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 24 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 24 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. The Oklahoma City Prime Steakhouse Thread
    By Teo9969 in forum General Food & Drink Topics
    Replies: 37
    Last Post: 09-29-2023, 04:30 PM
  2. Oklahoma City Energy FC 2020
    By Laramie in forum Sports
    Replies: 19
    Last Post: 08-21-2020, 10:08 AM
  3. 2019 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread
    By catch22 in forum Transportation
    Replies: 534
    Last Post: 01-28-2020, 12:48 PM
  4. 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread
    By catch22 in forum Transportation
    Replies: 794
    Last Post: 12-31-2018, 08:52 PM
  5. Thank You Oklahoma City Thunder Thread:
    By Laramie in forum Sports
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 05-02-2010, 04:09 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO