January and February 2020 - General Weather Discussion

[Pete]

The ground will be incredibly warm from the last couple of days.

Even if we got a healthy snowfall, you have to think it won't last very long, as by Thursday temps should be well above freezing.

[LakeEffect]

The ground will be incredibly warm from the last couple of days.

Even if we got a healthy snowfall, you have to think it won't last very long, as by Thursday temps should be well above freezing.

Yep, but a full day near freezing will make bridges much more susceptible to icing if it does happen, so driving will be annoying for Wednesday and until we get above freezing Thursday.

[Anonymous.]

Cold front has arrived here in OKC. Temperatures will pretty much continue to fall from here on out. Maybe recover a few degrees tomorrow around lunchtime before falling below freezing during precipitation.

For OKC as of when I am posting this:
Tuesday evening - Perhaps some fast passing freezing rain/drizzle patches moving through the area, should not be too extreme.
Midnight Tuesday night/Wednesday morning - Moderate and heavy snow moves up from NW TX across C OK.
6am Wednesday - Event is nearing its peak, moderate and heavy blowing snow across all of I-44, freezing rain and rain transition as you move ESE.
After that - Gradual tapering of snow bands through afternoon Wednesday before conclusion of the event around 5pm.

Here is a snapshot showing the heaviest precipitation occurring across the region Wednesday morning.

[BoulderSooner]

Seems like the cold front came in much sooner than expected

[Anonymous.]

It definitely came through early. Waiting to let models digest the front’s advancement for tonight to watch for changes. If the boundary continues to move further SE than forecast, the track of the main low will follow. This is why it is very important to keep updated. The track could shift SE by 50 miles and the result on the NW side of the snowfall is dramatically different.

[C_M_25]

So....any updates??

[Anonymous.]

Here are some snow total forecast updates. Models are favoring heaviest banding to be just south of I-44 corridor. Also NAM is now breaking up the main bulb of snow, which will significantly limit snowfall amounts if it comes to fruition. Basically NAM is saying the low dumps heavy snow in NW TX, then the precipitation kind of dies out across OK as the storm moves much too quickly for heavy sustained development of snow.

NWS issues Winter Storm Warning for SW to C OK along I-44 corridor, favoring the southern edge.


GFS:





HRRR:




GEM:




CMC:




NAM 3K:

[Anonymous.]

Latest GFS is coming in line with the 3KM NAM. This forecast is crazy, 30 mile fluctuations is going to be the difference in a dusting and up to 8".

[Bunty]

WINTER STORM WARNING - Includes all 3 metros.

Effective: Tue, 2/4 9:00pm Updated: Tue, 2/4 12:45pm Urgency: Expected
Expires: Wed, 2/5 6:00pm Severity: Moderate Certainty: Likely

Details:

...A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW AND SLEET TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations of 4 to 7 inches.
* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, southeast, southern
and southwest Oklahoma and northern Texas.
* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

Counties in pink covered:

[OKC Guy]

So....any updates??

Watched all 3 local weather last night. On a bread/milk scale:

Mike Morgan/channel 4: 8
Channel 5 and 9: 4

Mike won the snowmegedden contest hands down

[Bunty]

He calls it a nightmare to forecast, but Aaron Tuttle on Twitter sees more of a sleet/freezing rain mix Wednesday morning, meaning less snow, but still enough to count. But as one response put it, "Are we inching toward a non-event?"

[Anonymous.]

Latest data from short-range models is all coming in within the next hour. We will have some high resolution stuff to look at, too. Will post new images soon.

[Anonymous.]

New data is rolling in. There is a continued shift of heaviest precipitation being to the SE of I-44. However, the models are now increasing precipitation intensity and the snowband coverage further NW at the same time. Also a new factor that models are beginning to hint at - a continuous snowband could develop between the main bulk of snow that we get early in the night, and the final wrap-around bulk of snow we get toward afternoon. If this band comes to fruition, there could be a localized area of constant light to moderate snow in addition to the main precipitation bulbs.

I would still shoot for 5" in OKC area, heavier the further S and E sides. We could have localized areas picking up 8" if the snowbands run just right.

Precipitation should begin in OKC between 2am and 4am.


Latest 3KM NAM:



Latest HRRR:

[SoonerDave]

I've been trying to tell people here at work that the actual track of this storm is such that a twenty-or-so mile change in path could mean the difference between a big pile of snow and a comparative dusting. This is where the models get people in trouble, because they're just not designed to be *that* precise, but the expectation is they will be.

[Anonymous.]

Latest GFS has loaded in bust for OKC, Latest GEM bust for majority of OK. This is as of latest run (about 4pm Central). Both of these runs suggest majority precipitation further east in the non-frozen sector.

[Hollywood]

Well this will be an interesting night as we see which way this event unfolds.

[OKCRT]

Well this will be an interesting night as we see which way this event unfolds.

My Crystal Ball shows about 8-10 inches of snow in OKC as storm moves a little further north than expected.

[Anonymous.]

My Crystal Ball shows about 8-10 inches of snow in OKC as storm moves a little further north than expected.

It is possible for the track to shift back north, but as of now the trend to move heaviest precipitation to the east by the models is reality right now.

Here is latest snapshot of HRRR (this refreshes every hour and is usually pretty good indicator for very short window forecasts. This shows a large majority of accumulating snow being east of I-44.

[OKCRT]

It is possible for the track to shift back north, but as of now the trend to move heaviest precipitation to the east by the models is reality right now.

Here is latest snapshot of HRRR (this refreshes every hour and is usually pretty good indicator for very short window forecasts. This shows a large majority of accumulating snow being east of I-44.

Well my Crystal Ball is known to be wrong more than right. But I love snow so one can only hope. Looks like this one is shaping up to be a bunch of nothing for OKC.

[corwin1968]

OKCPS, Moore P.S., Norman P.S. and Mid-Del P.S have all cancelled classes for Wednesday.

[BoulderSooner]

Edmond now canceled aslo

[iambecoming]

OKCPS, Moore P.S., Norman P.S. and Mid-Del P.S have all cancelled classes for Wednesday.

That’s a sure fire sign that tomorrow morning the metro will be nice and clear.

[Bill Robertson]

Anonymous, educate me please. All the NAM runs today have varied greatly in total snowfall between the 3km and 12km models. What’s the difference between 3km and 12km?

[Anonymous.]

Anonymous, educate me please. All the NAM runs today have varied greatly in total snowfall between the 3km and 12km models. What’s the difference between 3km and 12km?

Essentially no difference other than resolution/scale to show a more realistic forecast. The 3KM is better used for spotting WHERE precipitation will develop/track versus the 12KM painting a broader area. The 3KM model is actually a piece of the 12KM itself. But it is isolated because it can be useful as it looks at specific reflectivity locations as opposed to all of the many pieces combined in the 12KM.


Edit: going to tag onto this for a quick update. There is currently freezing rain and drizzle developing along I-44 corridor right now. Some sleet will mix in as well. Bridged and overpasses are primary concern with early precip.

[C_M_25]

I’m willing to bet that a dry slot moves in from the northwest and cuts this system off and we get little snow throughout the entirety of the metro/Norman area making this system a bust. Most of the precipitation will be forced to the southeast in the form of a little snow, some ice, and some very cold rain as is typical with Oklahoma winter weather