January and February 2020 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

Going to combine these two winter months as the weather is pretty boring right now.

Pretty much copycat days for the next week with highs in the low 50s, and lows at night in the low 30s.

Next action as of now looks to be around mid-January.

Wildfire conditions will gradually increase if we continue to head through this winter with consistently dry weather.

[FighttheGoodFight]

Saw on the news looks like snow possible on Saturday? I didnt catch it live but saw some graphic.

[SEMIweather]

Sure does look like it's going to be very windy even by Oklahoma standards starting on Wednesday Morning.

[Bunty]

Oklahoma City meteorologist Aaron Tuttle sees big Arctic air mass outbreak coming next week, bringing lows to single digits in Oklahoma: https://aarontuttleweather.com/2020/...Fzmpy9oAN8EtkE

[SEMIweather]

The CPC seems to think we're more likely to stay just on the warm side, but it definitely looks like a sharp airmass gradient so it'll probably be a close call.

Would not want to be living in Montana over the next couple of weeks.

[Anonymous.]

Strong storm system will come across the central part of the country Thursday through Saturday. Right now it looks like impacts to OK will be strong south winds ahead of the storm, then strong north winds behind it (this weekend). Most precipitation looks to be focused to the east.

This first storm will knock temperatures down to more winter-like around here, and there is some trailing storm systems that will come through. We may have our first shot at actual winter precipitation next week sometime.

[Anonymous.]

Latest model data this afternoon is favoring a further south storm track for this upcoming storm. This would increase likelihood of wrap-around snow across the main body of OK late Friday night. This is the first iteration of the more reliable models suggesting this, so this could be an outlier until we start seeing a trend.

[BG918]

^ It could be a wild weekend in Oklahoma. Severe weather on Friday followed by snow on Saturday.

[Anonymous.]

NAM model has gone back to a northern track, minimal snow for OK. Other models are saying snow.


GEM



GFS



NAM



WRF ARW

[Anonymous.]

SPC has nudged severe storm risk slightly west to encompass OKC area for late morning into afternoon, Friday.

The exact storm track is going to determine not only the snow potential, but also storm potential. Right now it appears storms will develop by lunchtime somewhere across C OK, this could also be just E/NE of OKC and leave OKC in the dry slot of the low. If the storm track is further south and west, it would favor storm development just SW or directly over C OK. Tornado and hail probability will exist with earliest development of storms across C OK, and then decrease further east as storms are expected to form into a line and push into AR.

Then C OK will be in a dry slot for the remainder of Friday with strong winds flooding in cold air from the NW.

Snow forecast is entirely dependent on the low's track. Snowfall would occur late Friday into early Sat morning. Further south track means better shot for accumulating snow. As of now, taking a conglomerate of the models, it looks like the low's track will be somewhere along the Red River in SW OK, then shooting up to the NE just along I-44. this would favor the NW sides of I-44 corridor for best shot to see snow (if any). As with most OK snow forecasts, there is major uncertainty involved.

Snowfall amounts of various models as of Thursday afternoon:

GFS


GEM


NAM


CAN

[Bunty]

The developing weather situation has become more definite to the NWS, so a couple of storm watches have been issued starting Friday. One is for northern Oklahoma with a winter storm watch, which includes Enid, Bartlesville and Stillwater. Total snow accumulations up to 4 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Higher snow totals possible near the Kansas border.

The other one for eastern and southeastern Oklahoma with a flash flood watch, which includes Tulsa. NWS says residents of that area should expect widespread, heavy rainfall in the 2 to 4 inch range, with locally heavier amounts possible. The storms will “train” north to south, meteorologists say, meaning they'll continue to develop and pour rain repeatedly over the same areas. Oklahoma City metro, so far, is not affected by either watch:

[Anonymous.]

We should start to see more storms fire up over the next few hours across W to C to SE OK. There is already a pair of severe storms ongoing in W OK. Tornado potential does exist with these, especially early. Then there will be spin-up potential along a large line of storms across extreme E/SE OK.

Snow should develop on the wrap-around, this HRRR map of snowfall is probably a good indicator of realistic amounts. There could be a narrow band or two of heavy snow that results in higher accumulation. Given warm ground temperatures, minimal travel impact is expected - save for maybe extreme N/NE OK.

[Anonymous.]

Tornado watch is out for basically I-35 and points east. Some towers trying to get going to the SW right now. We will see if they can mature into storms by the time the boundary passes OKC.

[Anonymous.]

Just some general rain from decaying storms coming into the metro. The cold front has undercut everything, so drizzle will be the name of the game heading into tonight. Still a chance at some snow showers late with wrap-around, but again - no impacts really expected.

Update to the snow map posted from this morning.

[Ian Drake]

The Oklahoma weather hype rating machine strikes again!!! First it was severe weather with the possibility of tornadoes and that didn't pan out. And then snowfall that looks like it will not pan out? Color me shocked that all we get out of this is a little bit of cold rain before we go back to 50s and sunny. Isn't Oklahoma supposed to be the forefront of meteorology?

[jompster]

The Oklahoma weather hype rating machine strikes again!!! First it was severe weather with the possibility of tornadoes and that didn't pan out. And then snowfall that looks like it will not pan out? Color me shocked that all we get out of this is a little bit of cold rain before we go back to 50s and sunny. Isn't Oklahoma supposed to be the forefront of meteorology?

Color me shocked that you're already on here complaining. That's how weather works sometimes. You're always on here gassing when we don't have a foot-deep blizzard or an EF-5 wiping out someone's neighborhood. Just be glad you had some kind of warning in case there was something worse.

[Ian Drake]

The weather we had over Xmas was perfect. However it seem that anytime there is even a *chance* of something major happening our weather guys hype it all up for ratings. Even if there is a chance of something big happening, I would rather the mets underplay it than overplay it. Overplaying is just hype and it keeps people glued to the weather when they don't need to be or to go out and clean out the grocery store when they don't need to.

[Bunty]

The weather we had over Xmas was perfect. However it seem that anytime there is even a *chance* of something major happening our weather guys hype it all up for ratings. Even if there is a chance of something big happening, I would rather the mets underplay it than overplay it. Overplaying is just hype and it keeps people glued to the weather when they don't need to be or to go out and clean out the grocery store when they don't need to.

Really. I love the expression on this TV weatherman's face. (But that finger, oh my.) Emily at the same station wisely chose not to disclose what models were showing. The station has reduced snow amounts expected for the Stillwater and Pawnee areas to 1 to 3".

[OSUPeterson]

The Oklahoma weather hype rating machine strikes again!!! First it was severe weather with the possibility of tornadoes and that didn't pan out. And then snowfall that looks like it will not pan out? Color me shocked that all we get out of this is a little bit of cold rain before we go back to 50s and sunny. Isn't Oklahoma supposed to be the forefront of meteorology?

You're the worst. Go back to 4chan. Sorry you can't take in data and process it like the rest of us can. Thousands of variables reusult in outputs that change frequently. You must have missed the severe storms that hit west and tornadoes east of us. Stop watching the news forecast. No-one is forcing you to watch the local channels. NWS Norman puts out the perfect amount of information for you. You are a public nuisance here for those of us who actually care about the weather here.

[Ian Drake]

You're the worst. Go back to 4chan. Sorry you can't take in data and process it like the rest of us can. Thousands of variables reusult in outputs that change frequently. You must have missed the severe storms that hit west and tornadoes east of us. Stop watching the news forecast. No-one is forcing you to watch the local channels. NWS Norman puts out the perfect amount of information for you. You are a public nuisance here for those of us who actually care about the weather here.

I am a loser who lives in my mom's basement with nothing better to do.

[Plutonic Panda]

How is Ian wrong though? Meteorology in Oklahoma is a joke now. They live from hyping up sh!t that doesn’t happen: maybe it’ll snow tonight. We’ll see. Weather stations in OKC are worse than LA.

[Ginkasa]

How is Ian wrong though? Meteorology in Oklahoma is a joke now. They live from hyping up sh!t that doesn’t happen: maybe it’ll snow tonight. We’ll see. Weather stations in OKC are worse than LA.

TV meteorology maybe. Skipping the TV, I never felt mislead about what might have happened today or this weekend.

[OSUPeterson]

TV meteorology maybe. Skipping the TV, I never felt mislead about what might have happened today or this weekend.

This. TV is TV, not science. Long past are the days of local news being relevant or factual. Doesn't mean every time the wind blows we need to get on this board on piss and moan about it. Start a new thread for that. I've held back for a long time, just tired of having to see this stuff on this thread. The complaining is not relevant to the topic of the ACTUAL weather that happening.

[Plutonic Panda]

TV meteorology maybe. Skipping the TV, I never felt mislead about what might have happened today or this weekend.

I find this thread by posters here is much more reasonable than TV.

[Plutonic Panda]

This. TV is TV, not science. Long past are the days of local news being relevant or factual. Doesn't mean every time the wind blows we need to get on this board on piss and moan about it. Start a new thread for that. I've held back for a long time, just tired of having to see this stuff on this thread. The complaining is not relevant to the topic of the ACTUAL weather that happening.

I don’t usually check this thread unless I’m in town. Just providing my 2 cents.