2019-20 OKC Thunder

[Bill Robertson]

Let's hope this doesn't turn out to be prescient. Dan Marino was drafted by the Dolphins in 1983 and played there through 1999, his entire career. Many consider Marino to be the best quarterback to never win a championship. Presti sure can draft but will he be able to bring the Larry O'Brien Trophy to OKC?

This is exactly my point. Building or rebuilding a team is a VERY tricky proposition. The Thunder have already had at least three Hall Of Famers and only made the Finals once. There’s a possibility that they will never get back to that level again. Will the super loyal fans find that acceptable? Back to my Dolphins. Their fan base was considered one of the best in the NFL in the 70s and 80s. Now they can’t fill half a stadium ever.

[dankrutka]

If you're threshold is championship-or-bust for whether a tear down will "backfire" then prepare yourself for disappointment.

I don't know why people are worried. The only NBA teams that have failed to rebuild *always* have incompetent management (see the Knicks, Kings, Hornets...). The Kings, who been run about as poorly as you can run a franchise, still found their way into a fun, competitive team currently. OKC will do better with Presti. He is one of the best GMs in the league. He will improve the team over time as long as he's here. Management is arguably the biggest competitive advantage in the NBA, more so than market, location, or resources. That OKC already has gained Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and arguably the greatest haul of draft picks ever means that the rebuild is already well on its way.

[dankrutka]

Thunder isn't tanking. I honestly think that no NBA team is ever going to be allowed to tank at the level of the 76ers under Oklahoma native Sam Hinkie and "The Process". They were so bad that their sin wasn't just low home attendance, rather it was that they hurt the revenue at their road games. Then that hurts TV ratings and the vicious cycle of financially hurting their partners with the other 29 teams. That is unforgivable.

The Thunder as currently configured are going to win at least 35 games next season IMO, could well win 45 and get into the playoffs. I don't think we will be eliminated from contention until the last two weeks of the season under the worst case. Considering we were a first round loser with record challenging high payrolls the last couple years, I have to think out current set up is a financial net positive.

First, the Thunder are tearing it down. There is very little chance that CP3, Gallinari, and other pieces that can be moved in good deals will be here for the full season. Don't get attached to this team. Presti made that clear in his press conference and Oklahoman article. Second, "tanking" exists on a spectrum, it's not an either/or. In short, OKC is going to try to lose enough to get a good pick this season. The lottery system has changed so there is less incentive to do what the 76ers did. However, don't be mistaken, the Thunder will want to lose between 50 and 60 games if not this season then the next one.

[Dob Hooligan]

I do not for one minute believe the Thunder will want to lose 50 games any season. Ever.

[Laramie]

You might see a rollout version of Billy Ball (Not Tubbs),

Donovan was like a river boat gambler who inherited a good hand. However, as The Gambler song says,

You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table.
There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done.

Now, he has nothing to inherit; this is his team.

[dankrutka]

I do not for one minute believe the Thunder will want to lose 50 games any season. Ever.

You’re in for a rude awakening. 50 loss seasons (plural) are coming. And it’s a good thing. You can’t, as Presti said, reposition and replenish without some high draft picks. Trust the process.

[BlackmoreRulz]

Caesar's opened the Thunder at 28 total wins for the upcoming season, it was quickly bet up to 30, but that is still 52 losses,

[Dob Hooligan]

You’re in for a rude awakening. 50 loss seasons (plural) are coming. And it’s a good thing. You can’t, as Presti said, reposition and replenish without some high draft picks. Trust the process.

"The Process" was a specific event by the 76ers, and I don't think the league will allow any team to go to that level again. I think that phrase is being used now just about every time a team trades any player for picks or prospects.

When I look at the current roster, which I think is what we will have on the court until December 15th at the earliest, it doesn't look like 50 losses to me. I still think it is 38 to 45 wins.

Most of the draft picks the Thunder now own are not Thunder first rounders. Maybe 3 in the next 6 years? That would not be an incentive to lose games, IMO.

[Dob Hooligan]

Caesar's opened the Thunder at 28 total wins for the upcoming season, it was quickly bet up to 30, but that is still 52 losses,

This allows me to babble my favorite pontification: The purpose of the "Vegas line" isn't to guess an accurate number, it is to get half the money bet on each side of the number posted.

And if the Thunder win total this season Is still around 30 when I go to Las Vegas next month I will actually bet $50 on the over.

[Jersey Boss]

This allows me to babble my favorite pontification: The purpose of the "Vegas line" isn't to guess an accurate number, it is to get half the money bet on each side of the number posted.

And if the Thunder win total this season Is still around 30 when I go to Las Vegas next month I will actually bet $50 on the over.

The over and under are both at -110

[jn1780]

They already did a good job at setting low expectations. If its not 50 loses, it won't be far off. I am not even sure how well Chris Paul will do this year.

[dankrutka]

"The Process" was a specific event by the 76ers, and I don't think the league will allow any team to go to that level again. I think that phrase is being used now just about every time a team trades any player for picks or prospects.

When I look at the current roster, which I think is what we will have on the court until December 15th at the earliest, it doesn't look like 50 losses to me. I still think it is 38 to 45 wins.

Most of the draft picks the Thunder now own are not Thunder first rounders. Maybe 3 in the next 6 years? That would not be an incentive to lose games, IMO.

First, you don't have to tank like the 76ers to get good draft picks. No one said it would be the same as Philly. I was just using "Trust the Process" as a general statement about embracing a rebuild. OKC will want to lose a lot.

If OKC only has Gallo and CP3 until December 15th than OKC is definitely heading for 50 losses. There is a chance that OKC could win 35-40 games this year. I doubt it, but it's possible if there is no market for CP3. However, I expect a 50-loss team next season. Nothing is ever set in stone. Presti will look at options, but from his own words, he's preparing OKC for a rebuild. I think the reason he put out those statements is because he doesn't want fans to be disappointed if the team looks decent and then deals the best players for a future draft pick or two.

I'm not sure why you're saying the Thunder won't have their draft picks. Here's the Thunder's future draft picks:
2020: Thunder likely own it because it's top 20 protected to 76ers
2021: Thunder own their pick
2022: Thunder own it if they miss playoffs (top 14 protected to ATL)
2023: Thunder own their pick
2024: Thunder own their pick
2025: Thunder own their pick
2026: Thunder own their pick

So, you can see as long as the Thunder aren't successful in 2020 and 2022 then they'll have all their picks.

[dankrutka]

"The Process" was a specific event by the 76ers, and I don't think the league will allow any team to go to that level again. I think that phrase is being used now just about every time a team trades any player for picks or prospects.

When I look at the current roster, which I think is what we will have on the court until December 15th at the earliest, it doesn't look like 50 losses to me. I still think it is 38 to 45 wins.

Most of the draft picks the Thunder now own are not Thunder first rounders. Maybe 3 in the next 6 years? That would not be an incentive to lose games, IMO.

First, you don't have to tank like the 76ers to get good draft picks. No one said it would be the same as Philly. I was just using "Trust the Process" as a general statement about embracing a rebuild. OKC will want to lose a lot.

If OKC only has Gallo and CP3 until December 15th than OKC is definitely heading for 50 losses. There is a chance that OKC could win 35-40 games this year. I doubt it, but it's possible if there is no market for CP3. However, I expect a 50-loss team next season. Nothing is ever set in stone. Presti will look at options, but from his own words, he's preparing OKC for a rebuild. I think the reason he put out those statements is because he doesn't want fans to be disappointed if the team looks decent and then deals the best players for a future draft pick or two.

I'm not sure why you're saying the Thunder won't have their draft picks. Here's the Thunder's future draft picks:
2020: Thunder likely own it because it's top 20 protected to 76ers
2021: Thunder own their pick
2022: Thunder own it if they miss playoffs (top 14 protected to ATL)
2023: Thunder own their pick
2024: Thunder own their pick
2025: Thunder own their pick
2026: Thunder own their pick

So, you can see as long as the Thunder aren't successful in 2020 and 2022 then they'll have all their first round picks.

[dankrutka]

They already did a good job at setting low expectations. If its not 50 loses, it won't be far off. I am not even sure how well Chris Paul will do this year.

Chris Paul is still pretty good. I got down on him last season because he looked really slow, but I've been reading up a bit on him and I think he's still better than I had thought. If he can play well then that will help OKC deal him, which would be good.

[Dob Hooligan]

I've been wondering lately if the "old" way of building through the draft can be considered effective anymore? If something like 50% of the MVPs within the last 5 years (or All-Stars, or players overall, or whatever the stat is) changed teams within the last 2 years, then how long is a rebuild supposed to last?

Makes my head spin.

[dankrutka]

I think building through the draft is one approach. Another is to attract free agents (including identifying undervalued players). Another is to accrue assets and make trades. Or a combination of all three. But, for a lot of teams, the best chance at getting top players in the draft. About 20 of the 30 NBA teams have little chance at attracting the top free agents. What choice do most teams have? And, yes, there's no question that building through the draft can still work whether at the core of a team (See the Bucks with Giannis Antetokounmpo) or on the edges (see Toronto with Fred Van Vleet). While many of these top players are moving later in their careers, young stars almost always stay with the franchise that drafted them through their first two contracts. That can be 8 or 9 years.

[dankrutka]

I will amend what I said earlier. I think if everything broke right (e.g., Ferg and Shai make a jump, CP3 and Gallo are healthy, Steven improves with more chances, some bench guys pan out, other teams have an injury or two), this Thunder team as constructed could have an upside of a 45-win, low seed candidate. I just think when you consider how much would have to go right and the likelihood of guys getting traded that this possibility is so unlikely that it's unwise to get your hopes up. If I were betting on a number of wins I would guess 30-52. There's just a lot of variation depending on roster moves.

[OKCRT]

This team is just good enough to push for a playoff spot. Is that what people want? This team is nowhere near good enough to be a real threat to win the west. I think it's prob better to tank and try to get the best possible draft spot and do some wheeling and dealing to get some young talent that has a chance to make a difference. In 2-3 years the west is going to look a lot different. There will be some teams that drop off and that will be the time for the Thunder to make their move.

[gopokes88]

I trust Presti. He’s smart and knows what he’s doing. Could always be the lakers and not read the cba and it’s implications then make a franchise changing trade.

[Laramie]

Can't help but think, man PG13 has gotten all patched up, now he's off to L.A. Did enjoy his stay in our city. Agree with gopkes88 'I trust Presti. He’s smart and knows what he’s doing.'

Presti is very methodical, very secretive about organizational business & structure. A true traditionalist as an organization PR man.

Heard much criticism about the Thunder organization; however do you want to hear a GM bellyaching about the team & its play when its his responsibility to do something about it.

[dankrutka]

I think the only way this team makes a real playoff push is if they can come out of the gate and be sitting at like the 4 seed. I don't think there's any reason to think about it if they're sitting at the 7-10 seed come December 15th and then the trade deadline. While Iike this team alright as currently constructed, the West is absolutely loaded. Some really good teams are going to miss the playoffs. That's why I think this is all moot. I doubt this team could make the playoffs if the Thunder decided to go all in for the full season, which is why trading at least Gallo and CP3 if possible is very likely. While it stinks to lose, getting a top 5-10 pick (along with Denver's pick likely in the 20s) in June is how you get the rebuild moving.

[Dob Hooligan]

So, I'm watching ESPN this afternoon and I had this chilling realization that we might be-coming the NBA version of the Tampa Bay Rays: the small market team that got their chance at the Brass Ring of the Championship Series and couldn't close out the deal. But they keep trying and get close, until they have to trade out their players before they get able to walk for no return. And then they reload.

America likes them because they are competitive in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox. And they got spunk, just like Luther Heggs.

[Laramie]

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 2019 PRESEASON SCHEDULE

DATE	OPPONENT	LOCATION	TIME (CDT)
Oct. 8	vs. Dallas Mavericks	Tulsa, OK	7:00 p.m.
Oct. 10	vs. New Zealand Breakers	Oklahoma City, OK	7:00 p.m.
Oct. 14	at Dallas Mavericks	Dallas, TX	7:30 p.m.
Oct. 16	vs. Memphis Grizzlies	Oklahoma City, OK	7:00 p.m.

News Release link: https://www.nba.com/thunder/news/pre...chedule-190731

[dankrutka]

Preseason game in Dallas! Woo hoo!

I wish the Thunder still did one of the OKC games in Wichita and worked on that market.

[sooner88]

Thunder and Patterson have agreed to a buyout for $5.7 million of the final season of his contract, allowing him to become a free agent, according to Wojnarowski. The veteran stretch-four intends to sign with the LA Clippers upon clearing waivers.