General Weather Discussion - May 2019

[Anonymous.]

Storm going up south of Lawton already showing some rotation in its infancy. I am back in OKC and will be in chat if anyone wants to join.

https://chatroll.com/embed/chat/wxst...tuff-live-chat

[Of Sound Mind]

"NWS: A PDS Tornado Watch is in effect until 10PM for much of SW and central OK. Very large hail and tornadoes are possible. Please stay alert!!"

Man... you just can't trust these meteorologists who are overhyping for the TV ratings. Shame on you, National Weather Service. </sarcasm>

[Anonymous.]

SPC has extended Enhanced Risk area all the way SW to include C OK.

This does increase tornado probability to greater than 10% with hashed indicator for significant tornadoes.

[jn1780]

Aaron Tuttle probably doing back flips right now. More money for his app. His gamble paying off.

[OKC Guy]

NWS Norman
@NWSNorman
3:10 PM - scattered storms developing from OKC metro south to the Arbuckles to the east of I-35 are becoming stronger and may be supercells soon. Areas along and E of I-35 and S of I-44 remain alert!
3:12 PM · May 22, 2019 · TweetDec

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSNorman...91867222618112

[OKC Guy]

Newest conspiracy theory on spotters: They over predicted Mon to flush out all the rookies and now that most are gone home the pro chasers can chase unimpeded lol. All joking aside my guess is we have less chasers since today was mostly a surprise event.

[jedicurt]

"NWS: A PDS Tornado Watch is in effect until 10PM for much of SW and central OK. Very large hail and tornadoes are possible. Please stay alert!!"

Man... you just can't trust these meteorologists who are overhyping for the TV ratings. Shame on you, National Weather Service. </sarcasm>

please stay alert is fine.... this is a life-altering once in a lifetime event, is not....

stating that a watch is in effect and tornadoes are possible is fine... saying a day will be the worst tornado day in oklahoma history, is not...

see the differences

[OKC Guy]

NWS Norman
@NWSNorman
Analysis of our 230pm weather balloon data shows that the cap has weakened considerably over central Oklahoma. Instability and wind shear are favorable for supercell storms with large hail and potentially tornadoes. #okwx
3:18 PM · May 22, 2019 · TweetDeck

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSNorman...93303171932162

[SoonerDave]

For those of you who track the different models, Euro nailed this one while GFS whiffed, at least with storms in SC/SW OK.

[jedicurt]

For those of you who track the different models, Euro nailed this one while GFS whiffed, at least with storms in SC/SW OK.

yep. will be interesting to see how they form up and how close the Euro really was

[jn1780]

Another storm developing north of Lawton they are maintaining good separation as of right now. I'm just imagining now the uproar we will hear if we actually get a forecast bust from the opposite end: An outbreak that wasn't predicted.

Edit: northern storm already losing some of its intensity.

[Of Sound Mind]

please stay alert is fine.... this is a life-altering once in a lifetime event, is not....

stating that a watch is in effect and tornadoes are possible is fine... saying a day will be the worst tornado day in oklahoma history, is not...

see the differences

Who said it was going to be the worst tornado day in Oklahoma history?

What I see is that there has been a lot of armchair quarterbacking going on since Monday and much of it has been, by definition, ignorant — as in not understanding that most of the mets were in agreement, including the NWS and SPC, that the ingredients were there for a potentially bad, bad situation. Fortunately for all of us, we got the best-case scenario rather than the worst-case scenario — if you ignore all the really dangerous flooding.

All those armchair quarterbacks, since they are the experts, can just turn off all those overhyping meteorologists and do their own forecasts.

I do see the difference... the difference between hyperbolic lamenting of supposedly "busted" forecasts versus the well-reasoned, experience, scientific analysis and discussion that I was following on Sunday and Monday. I would still be overwarned and it bust than the opposite happen.

[emtefury]

Today felt like a worse weather day than Monday. The sun was out most of the day felt like supercells.

[Anonymous.]

PDS watch now issued for all of NE OK, Same tornado parameters as the one to the SW, but higher in wind and hail parameters.

[jn1780]

I'm sure most of you are with anonymous in chat. Northern Lawton storm trying to ramp up again.

[OkiePoke]

Chat says it is full.

[Anonymous.]

Yes, just noticed that it says it is full, there is only 10 of us in there.

[bchris02]

Today felt like a worse weather day than Monday. The sun was out most of the day felt like supercells.

I agree with this.

This is also why I follow Aaron Tuttle. He was less bullish on Monday than most of the other mets but was talking about an outbreak today when nobody else was.

[Anonymous.]

The supercells E of OKC area are the real deal. Both cells are tornado producing at this time. Heading into Cromwell and Okemah.

[jn1780]

Anything southwest is struggling. If they survive, they could move into more favorable conditions. There is an ingredient that is not quite there in that area.

Lawton storm is not even severe now. There is another cell west of that one going up, but it appears to be stuck on a boundary heading north so that has a good chance of dying off.

[gopokes88]

I don’t understand the science behind tornados that well.

I also don’t care if they say it’s gonna be hell out there and then it’s a bust. If that’s what the data says can happen, I’ll listen.

That being said, when it was cloudy and near cold Monday morning I kinda thought, nah, that’s not EF-5 tornado weather. For those super massive tornados everything has to go right (or wrong?), Monday morning showed it wasn’t.

[Anonymous.]

Short range models redevelop a few supercells just WSW of OKC as we head into sundown. We will see if this happens or not...

[BG918]

Today felt like a worse weather day than Monday. The sun was out most of the day felt like supercells.

Yep. I remember the last few outbreaks like 5/3/99 and 5/20/13 and they had a certain feel. Really warm, humid, sunny. Monday wasn't like that.

[jn1780]

What needs to really happen is for no more rain in the Kaw and Keystone lake basins. Even at 215,000 cfs both are still taking in more water than they are letting out. Keystone is taking in 250,000 cfs right now.

The catastrophic 1986 flood in Tulsa peaked at Keystone releasing 307,000 cfs.

Unfortunately, that is exactly what is occurring now. More rain.

[SoonerDave]

So are those storms in SC/SW Ok going to get organized or are they going to fade out??