General Weather Discussion - January 2019

[stile99]

Does anyone know what time the main storm is expected to move in to central Ok? I have given up on the weather channel and local news for now. They change their forecast every few minutes it seems. I want hard hitting facts!

Again, the models still differ, and the conditions are constantly changing. Anyone who gives you an exact time is lying to you. Darn thing could still decide to track south. Personally, I welcome updated information when it is available.

[d-usa]

At this point it’s like demanding exact forecasts about where wrecks will be during rush hours any given morning.

[OKCisOK4me]

All the stations this morning (5am newscasts) were like no snow this thing is tracking much further south", which "tends to be typical with cut off lows". Going to bed at 7:30pm to get up earlier for work tomorrow. I can't wait!!

[judysue]

Damon Lane is going with 1-3 inches of snow for OKC even though the National Weather Service predicts 3-5 inches. Mike Morgan is emphasizing that by definition a winter storm warning means 5 inches of snow in a 12 hour period, and is using the Euro model to show 7 inches in the metro.

[corwin1968]

OKCPS has called it for Thursday. I haven't seen any other metro districts in the cancellation lists.

[judysue]

Norman doesn't go back until the 7th, so not all are in session now.

[corwin1968]

Norman doesn't go back until the 7th, so not all are in session now.

I had forgotten that! Most of the metro probably isn't back to school yet.

[emtefury]

David Payne is going with 2-4 inches in the OKC metro.

[sooner333]

National Weather Service showing 4-6 south of Oklahoma County, 2-4 in OKC, and 1-2 roughly north of Memorial.

[Anonymous.]

I am back in OKC now. Bridges and overpasses are frozen solid and another batch of freezing rain and sleet is coming in. This will likely coat all roadways, but some heavily traveled lanes will probably be okay. I would just assume all wet surfaces are ice and travel cautiously.

Tonight, models are continuing bullish trend to decent snowfall in the Winter Storm Warning area. Most models are picking up early-on sleet and thus exaggerating snowfall. So I would basically cut all of the following map totals in half. However, as I mentioned earlier - we could see a very narrow corridor of significant snowfall somewhere in the warning area. There will be localized heavy bands of snow that will be nearly idle in movement, which will result in heavier accumulation across maybe just handfuls of miles. The exact track of the low will determine who receives the cold pocket of air - thus the most snowfall.

[sacolton]

Dear Lord in Heaven. What have God wrought?

[CloudDeckMedia]

Roads on near north side of OKC are fine. Wet and a little slick, but not really a problem. Route: 63 & Western to 36th to Lincoln to OU Medical complex, then I-235 north to 63rd, west to May.

[LocoAko]

About 1/8" of ice accretion in NW OKC this morning. Roads seem wet (I'm sure bridges are worse) but everything else is icy. Should hopefully switch over to snow later this morning.

[OSUPeterson]

Moderate Snow coming down on the north side of Norman now (Indian Hills & I-35)

[emtefury]

Snowing now in SW OKC near Hobby Lobby HQ.

[djohn]

David Payne is going with 2-4 inches in the OKC metro.

Looks like he will be a lot closer than the 7.3" that Mike Morgan predicted.

[Anonymous.]

Radar is filling in with heavy snow now across much of C OK. This will continue into the afternoon. Accumulation on surfaces will occur due to the rate of snowfall. There is a chance that warm air will overtake the northern edge of the low and eat into snow totals by transitioning into rain and/or sleet. However, it is likely that areas experiencing snowfall and accumulation will have temperatures actually falling throughout the air column, thus keeping the snow going. Very fine line will be made between a lot of snow, and almost no snow.

Here is the latest from the NAM. I would continue to assume these should be divided in half, but there could be localized heavier amounts where banding is concentrated.

[sooner333]

We had some brief heavy snow in Norman but we moved back to rain.

[SoonerDave]

We had about 20 minutes of really huge snowflakes falling about an hour ago, but it transitioned back to a snow/sleet mix, and right now I'm not sure much of anything is falling - very light, nearly imperceptible freezing drizzle with the occasional mixed-in big snowflakes. Looks like if you poked the clouds really hard with a yardstick, you might get buried hip-deep in snow

In our area the roads are just wet-to-slushy at worst. If you take your time and be careful, you shouldn't have problems. Just watch out for the other guy .

[Anonymous.]

Very similar reports coming in all over C OK about precipitation changing back and forth. There is pockets of warm air overrunning the cold air the low is attempting to create. This will cause very random pockets of differing precipitation. There are parts of C OK just west of OKC that already have 3 inches.

We will see how the low is able to produce (or not produce) snow as it comes into SW OK and moves east across the state. Right now it is really struggling to get going.


EDIT: Also it is super cool that many of the radar sites are having connection issues this morning - resulting in a very annoying nowcast.

[Anonymous.]

Moderate and heavy snow inching back into the OKC metro in the next couple hours. Radar is filling in along I-35 while the low is nearly stationary just east of Childress, TX. This will pull the precipitation plume back west over the area.

[FritterGirl]

Moderate and heavy snow inching back into the OKC metro in the next couple hours. Radar is filling in along I-35 while the low is nearly stationary just east of Childress, TX. This will pull the precipitation plume back west over the area.

Thanks! I'd wondered. Was happy when I saw the big fluffy flakes falling outside my window, but that little push hardly lasted 15 minutes. Was curious if this system had just fizzled out, or if we're waiting for more.

[brian72]

Dry Slot beginning to talk hold.

[sacolton]

Dry Slot beginning to talk hold.

Looks like it'll be pushed out with the cycle. Also, the re-freezing overnight is going to be a huge impact in the morning?

[jn1780]

NWS actually extended the Winter Storm Warning across several counties. So its not over yet.