General Weather Discussion - January 2019

[Bunty]

I'll start the January weather thread with a winter storm watch. It includes all the OKC metro area.

WINTER STORM WATCH
Areas Affected:
Atoka - Bryan - Caddo - Canadian - Carter - Cleveland - Coal - Comanche - Cotton - Garvin - Grady - Hughes - Jefferson - Johnston - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Love - Marshall - McClain - Murray - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Pontotoc - Pottawatomie - Seminole - Stephens - Tillman - Washi ta
Effective: Wed, 1/2 6:00am Updated: Tue, 1/1 11:38am Urgency: Future
Expires: Fri, 1/4 6:00am Severity: Moderate Certainty: Possible

Details:

...Winter Precipitation Likely Wednesday and Thursday...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations up to
around two tenths of an inch possible. Though most of this is
expected to fall Wednesday night and Thursday... minor impacts
will still be possible on Wednesday.
* WHERE...Portions of western, central, and southern Oklahoma and
northern Texas.
* WHEN...From Wednesday through early Friday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The
greatest impacts are expected Wednesday night through Thursday
night.

Information:

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

Counties covered in blue:

[John1744]

I was shocked to see the NWS Norman account tweet this morning about 4-5 inches of snow. That’s oddly specific for them and a couple local Mets I follow on Twitter said latest model runs have them thinking it’ll be a cold soaker with maybe a light sheen of ice.

News9 backed off the snow totals at noon for central OK and shifted more into rain and ice mode then snow on the back end.

[Sirsteve]

I was shocked to see the NWS Norman account tweet this morning about 4-5 inches of snow. That’s oddly specific for them and a couple local Mets I follow on Twitter said latest model runs have them thinking it’ll be a cold soaker with maybe a light sheen of ice.

News9 backed off the snow totals at noon for central OK and shifted more into rain and ice mode then snow on the back end.

I think its pretty obvious by now that its very hard to get snow in OKC. We are just in the right area of the united states where the cold and warm air battle constantly ...i.e tornado alley. Its very difficult to predict snow here and everytime they do the storm system either peters out or moves south or we get a dry slot or we get warm air coming in and it just rains . I am liking the all rain though as it keeps our fire season to a minimum.

[OKCRT]

Just looked on the weather channel and it says 0% tomorrow and 20% tomorrow night. Looks like another miss for OKC. Earlier I listened to Mike M. and he said we would get a months worth of precipitation from this system. Hmm?

[SoonerDave]

Latest GFS run appears to push most of the Thursday precipitation to southern Oklahoma. Looked like central OK is now dry.

[SoonerDave]

J... Earlier I listened to Mike M. and.....

I think we've identified the flaw in the plan.

[MagzOK]

The problem is that these newer meteorologists merely forecast models and don't use any of their guts. Instead of using all the models together and their own instincts to come up with their own true forecast, they seem intent on simply selecting their favorite model and running with it. That's why anymore someone's forecast can drastically change with incredible differences from the noon to the 5PM weather segments. It's really crazy.

[5alive]

Just watched Michael Armstrong on KOCO...his forecast has moved most everything south.

[jn1780]

The problem is that these newer meteorologists merely forecast models and don't use any of their guts. Instead of using all the models together and their own instincts to come up with their own true forecast, they seem intent on simply selecting their favorite model and running with it. That's why anymore someone's forecast can drastically change with incredible differences from the noon to the 5PM weather segments. It's really crazy.

I don't know if its really about using their guts vs everyone else also has access to more information so people are noticing these shifts in forecast models more.

[Bill Robertson]

This morning both GFS and NAM show it going south of the metro.

[SoonerDave]

Has the 6AM (00Z) GFS come out? The last one I saw was the midnight (600z) run. It showed freezing precip generally south of I-40, but a bit farther north than the immediately previous run...and possibly lingering into Friday...(the 6am run is normally up by now on the.site I check...)

[tyeomans]

So what all are we supposed to get then? Any ice or snow at all?

[John1744]

Wow what’s with the latest Euro? Dumping 14 inches of snow on central OK?

[OKCRT]

Wow what’s with the latest Euro? Dumping 14 inches of snow on central OK?

So are you saying they are now predicting 14 inches of snow in okc?

[John1744]

Just one model run from this morning. There is always outliers. Just a bit odd to see it get that aggressive this close to the event in my very limited history of looking at these models.

[LakeEffect]

Just one model run from this morning. There is always outliers. Just a bit odd to see it get that aggressive this close to the event in my very limited history of looking at these models.

Reed Timmer posted images on Twitter from the NAM run this morning that show similarly high amounts, but falling near Altus. A couple other model images I've seen on Twitter show an almost horizontal line where the snowfall drops off just south of I-40 (within a mile or two), leaving OKC itself with possibly nothing, and multiple inches to the SW.

As usual with winter weather here, we won't know until it happens... or doesn't.

[SoonerDave]

Okay, the 6am GFS is finally out, and it looks like it's trying very hard to creep that biggest wave (blob?) of Thursday winter precipitation just *north* of I-40 now, and seems to expand it's coverage as well.

The path that low takes as it ejects out of the SW is going to tell the tale. We're talking a (roughly) 50-mile difference for how that northern boundary plays out as a function of where the low travels. That kind of narrow corridor prediction (will it hit OKC) is just beyond the granularity of these kinds of models.

Bottom line? We could get a good winter blast, esp in southern OK. It *might* reach as far north as OKC, and even a bit beyond. Underline *might*. Anyone giving certainty on this one for OKC is selling a bill of goods.

[OKCRT]

So I assume we wont really know til the storm enters the state?

[Bill Robertson]

So I assume we wont really know til the storm enters the state?

Probably not.

[okatty]

The NOAA site updated their stuff at 3 PM and shows OKC on the line between 1-3 and 3-5 inches with drizzle, freezing rain, sleet tonight turning to snow later Thursday.

https://www.weather.gov/oun

[Anonymous.]

Hello everyone. I have been out of state, but will be flying back into OKC later tonight. I don’t have a PC with me right now so this is from my phone. I have viewed the model data that I could and it appears NAM and GFS are becoming more bullish on winter precipitation affecting SW, C, and S OK. Winter Storm Warning is out for these areas and initial waves of light freezing rain and sleet are already developing west of OKC.

We will have to watch short-range models @ 00Z and in the morning for the best clarification on snow accumulation and location. Like others have already explained, locations with significant impacts will be extremely localized with this system as it is a very compact low with limited moisture.

However, as we all know, heavy snowbands will set up with the wrap-around snow and very limited areas could receive even up to 6” of snow.

I will post some graphics later tonight after I land unless someone else does before then.

[okatty]

It is sleeting like crazy in NW OKC (Memorial and Macarthur - 4:15PM).

[OKCRT]

It is sleeting like crazy in NW OKC (Memorial and Macarthur - 4:15PM).

Yes it's coming down pretty good everything covered. It's here heavy sleet. As fast as it moved in it's gone now. Don't see anything behind it in the state yet.

[LocoAko]

Roads in the metro are already quite bad with accidents all over the place. Plenty of sleet setting up SW of the metro with some embedded lightning even, though most of it looks to slide south of OKC.

[OKCRT]

Does anyone know what time the main storm is expected to move in to central Ok? I have given up on the weather channel and local news for now. They change their forecast every few minutes it seems. I want hard hitting facts!