General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

[Anonymous.]

As mentioned a while back, tropical development has occurred in the GOM. TS Gordon will be making landfall somewhere east of New Orleans and tracking toward the plains.

Right now we have moisture streaming up across the region along a boundary that is nearly stationary. This will continue to provide rain and storm chances, especially in afternoons.

In terms of the tropical storm track, we will likely see a track that favors a path through Arkansas. With this storm, emphasis on precipitation will be very localized and the storm will dissipate very quickly. The main precipitation will be concentrated on the north and eastern sides of the circulation. This will place the majority of associated rain chances in extreme E OK. Although, the rest of the state will still be impacted with scattered storms that are firing off of the outerbands/stationary boundary as the storm approaches. Random placement of rain/storm clusters will be the name of the game, but in general forecast models put a heavier concentration of rain along I-35 corridor, and then obviously extreme E OK from any remnants of Gordon.

[Bunty]

Finally, Sunday afternoon became sunny after nearly a week's absence of the sun. The map shows Oklahoma got some rain over the past week, some places got a lot. 10 day forecast not showing a return of the 90s.

[Anonymous.]

While the Carolinas brace for potential hurricane impact. The GOM will be favorable near TX for tropical development. Impact will likely be high clouds over OK later in the week.

[Anonymous.]

Florence has made landfall and is now sliding south and west along the coast. Massive flooding will take place in the area over the weekend. With emphasis on the Wilmington region.

Our weather here in OK will continue to be amazing. Highs in 80s and lows in 70s. Mostly cloudy/hazey conditions will exist due to the clouds coming off the tropical disturbance across southern TX. Our best chance @ rain coming up is Sunday afternoon, but it is a very small chance.

Looking ahead, our next legitimate shot @ rain is showing up around the 21st, with potential for severe weather.

[BG918]

Florence has made landfall and is now sliding south and west along the coast. Massive flooding will take place in the area over the weekend. With emphasis on the Wilmington region.

Our weather here in OK will continue to be amazing. Highs in 80s and lows in 70s. Mostly cloudy/hazey conditions will exist due to the clouds coming off the tropical disturbance across southern TX. Our best chance @ rain coming up is Sunday afternoon, but it is a very small chance.

Looking ahead, our next legitimate shot @ rain is showing up around the 21st, with potential for severe weather.

Looks like it could be followed by a nice cool down too. Classic fall severe weather set up, at least how it looks right now.

[Ian Drake]

We definitely do not need severe weather. Does classic mean high end? are the TV shysters hyping this one up??

[Anonymous.]

Still summer for the next few days.

We will likely see heavy rain and storms on Friday late morning carrying into the nighttime hours. This will be from a dying tropical system out near the Baja California Peninsula that will be pulled up into a strong coldfront across the plains. Localized flash flooding will be possible. Emphasis will be on C and E OK.

This front will knock temperatures down for next week giving us beautiful weather - highs in the low 80s. This will be ahead of another strong system that will effect the area around the 27th and close out the month of September.

Looking long-range past that, we could see temperatures struggling to make 60s for highs heading into the first week of October. Fall is coming.

[OKCisOK4me]

^^that I like!

[John1744]

Ol’ Mike Morgan was hyping up the Euro model for the rest of the week. Showing central corridor of the state getting nearly a foot of rain.

[LocoAko]

Ol’ Mike Morgan was hyping up the Euro model for the rest of the week. Showing central corridor of the state getting nearly a foot of rain.

Yeah, and it's actually been fairly consistent with it, too -- most of the area gets 4-6" with isolated areas 10"+. We'll see what happens (the American models have roughly 2-5", which is still a ton of rain all at once).

[SoonerDave]

Many area high schools are moving their Friday football games to Thursday (tonight).

[LocoAko]

[BG918]

Ol’ Mike Morgan was hyping up the Euro model for the rest of the week. Showing central corridor of the state getting nearly a foot of rain.

And Aaron Tuttle is jumping on the wagon forecasting "catastrophic" flooding for central OK..

[LocoAko]

Most of this morning's model runs have trended drier for the metro, with a general 2-4" (still nothing to sneeze at) and better chances of 4"+ the further south and east you go. This morning's Euro does have a swath of 6"+ from SE of Wichita Falls through Ada and McAlester, with isolated areas over a foot, though, so someone's going to get dumped on.

[Mel]

It is the last weekend of the State Fair. No surprise about the rain.

[Anonymous.]

Pick your favorite forecast model!

NAM is consistently slamming C OK.

All other models slam S and E OK.

[Bobby821]

Hoping the NAM is the right one!!

[Of Sound Mind]

Hoping the NAM is the right one!!

Surprise!

[OKCisOK4me]

Whichever the model prediction, lawn is mowed. Bring it!

[Of Sound Mind]

Whichever the model prediction, lawn is mowed. Bring it!

Ditto!

[5alive]

^^^^

[okatty]

^Mine was partially mowed today too....by army worms. Craziest thing I have ever seen. Noticed some smallish worms on the patio and happened to look in grass and literally THOUSANDS of them just going to town. Called the lawn guy and he said they have been inundated with calls today. They came out this afternoon and put some product down and watered it in.....GONE. Appeared like something out of a movie though....OK, back to weather (sorry).

[jonny d]

Already shaping up to miss OKC with the heavy rain. Figures. The ground can use a good soaking, and it will miss Midwest City with any rain of consequence.

[Sirsteve]

Already shaping up to miss OKC with the heavy rain. Figures. The ground can use a good soaking, and it will miss Midwest City with any rain of consequence.

I was just going to mention that the doughnut effect is in full force for the start of this event. Its amazing how dry it is with all that rain we had just the other day.

[SoonerDave]

Sure seems to me that, in general, most of these mods tend to be VERY aggressive with moisture predictions that usually mitigate significantly as time progresses. I remember lots of hysterical winter forecasts for extraordinary snowfall based on the same projected moisture/precip. If this is a repeatable pattern in the models, why do they not feed that reality back into the models?