General Weather Discussion - June 2018

[Anonymous.]

Storm complex is rapidly fizzling out as we approach 9am. Some redevelopment near Stillwater, but these storms may also stay east of OKC.

[Anonymous.]

It is looking like these storms will affect the metro. Currently strengthening along I-35 and heading due south with western edge development. Strong winds associated with these along with flash flooding rains.

[stile99]

The darn thing can't decide what it wants to do.

I've decided what i want to do, though. Make sure important devices and backup powerbanks are charged.

[Anonymous.]

Severe warning likely coming for this storm. Some hail developing with it and the rain is torrential.

[Anonymous.]

Storms will redevelop this evening across the TX PH and into NW OK. These may or may not make it to central parts of the state. Movement and development will be very random, much like we have seen the past couple weeks.

It looks like parts of W OK could get a really nice drink from some of these storms!

[Anonymous.]

Hot with high humidity for the next handful of days. After that, things may get interesting around here with tropical systems coming into play for our region. A dying storm off the Baja will be shredded across the area in the coming days leaving us with a large moisture stream and a subsequent tropical storm forming over the western GOM. Current model tracks are favoring a TX landfall with lingering stationary front over OK. This will give us a relief in temperatures, but more importantly chances at potentially significant rainfall.

[Anonymous.]

Small CU field has formed just NW of C OK. A few storms trying to develop there heading into this evening.

[d-usa]

That humidity really makes it feel pretty muggy out there.

[pw405]

Mesonet has a chance of rain for the next 3-5 days and daily high temps seem to be a little more mild. Any chances for severe weather with this system?

[SEMIweather]

Mesonet has a chance of rain for the next 3-5 days and daily high temps seem to be a little more mild. Any chances for severe weather with this system?

Not until Thursday or so. Between now and then, it should just be a heavy rain threat. Starting on Thursday, we should enter a northwest flow pattern which could be more favorable for convective complexes moving in from Colorado/Kansas. Maybe a damaging wind threat with those, but it's a long way out and predictability is low.

[Anonymous.]

Tropical moisture continues to stream in. Last week it looked like the tropical system down in southern Texas was going to be pulled north and merge with an upper level storm system slowly coming out of the Rockies. Now it looks like the tropical system will sink back south into Mexico. Thus decreasing some of our rain potential, or rather putting more of a question mark on it.

The upper system will still be coming across the area, mainly across KS. But some models bring it slightly further south and bring heavy waves of rainfall down across SW KS into NW OK and across our state as they die out to the south and east. This is really good news for SW KS and into NW OK, where the drought is still very strong.

We should see storms develop this evening into Wednesday morning and attempt to make it into OK, they may die out before reaching the main body of our state. However, we should see redevelopment Wednesday night into Thursday, which will have a better chance at affecting C OK.

After that we head into this weekend and early next week, we may get in a sweet-spot for an active NW flow with additional waves of rain and thunderstorms developing across the panhandles and SW KS that continue to send waves of storms across OK.


TL;DR - NW and N OK have the best chances for heavy rainfall over the next 2-4 days. Rest of state gets leftovers. Then for weekend and beyond we may all get in on heavier action.

[Anonymous.]

Small chance of a storm or two developing tonight, nothing major expected.

Friday night into Saturday there will be a solid chance @ a storm complex coming from SW KS/NW OK and tracking east across the state. Best chances are northern OK, but C OK could get involved. SPC has outlined a Slight risk for NW OK and Marginal for C and N OK.

Saturday afternoon into evening there is a Slight risk for C and NE OK as storms are expected to develop near I-44 corridor. The severity and location of these storms will depend greatly on the Friday overnight convection effects.

Heading into next week we will see temperatures begin creeping back up into the mid 90s, but there is some chances of additional rain in the long-range forecast right now. Possible some severe weather around Tuesday into Wednesday.

[Anonymous.]

Storms are increasing in intensity across NW OK, These are riding down with the northwest flow out of SW KS. These storms will likely pass just west of OKC area before dying out later this afternoon. Still could see some impact in the mtro, though. This corridor will be the focus of more storms overnight tonight into early Saturday AM.

SPC has upgraded severe risk to Enhanced for NW, W, and C OK for overnight tonight. Models are showing a fast moving line of severe storms coming out of the panhandle region and racing to the southeast. Damaging wind threat will be very high with this complex.

[kukblue1]

Is channel 5 getting worse and worse with their "hype" or is it just me. They used to be my favorite station but hear lately they just seem to really go crazy with stuff. Especially their headlines or teases. Then when you actually watch it's not as hyped.

[Anonymous.]

Storms are expanding in the panhandles right now. These will eventually turn into a large complex and go east. Impacts into C OK are roughly around 12-1am.

Short-range models suggest redevelopment behind the initial line somewhere across C or N OK leading to flash flooding into Saturday morning.

[5alive]

Is channel 5 getting worse and worse with their "hype" or is it just me.

I hope not. They are my favorite!

[Anonymous.]

The line of storms is picking up speed. Could see them in OKC by 11-midnight.

[Anonymous.]

Severe storm watch out for th SW 1/3 of OK. Including OKC.

Storms are struggling to develop right now. But if they can break the cap closer to sunset, they will be severe. Hail and wind main threats. Can’t rule out a quick tornado. Hail could be large with any isolated cells with rotation.

[bucktalk]

It seems I recall early last spring David Payne/channel 9 forecasting a severe drought for this summer after reviewing dry past weather patterns with what he considered a repeat of drought possibilities. I'm wondering, since we're getting decent rains in late June, if a predicted drought is still possible.

[BG918]

It seems I recall early last spring David Payne/channel 9 forecasting a severe drought for this summer after reviewing dry past weather patterns with what he considered a repeat of drought possibilities. I'm wondering, since we're getting decent rains in late June, if a predicted drought is still possible.

Drought can form quickly with a pattern shift, especially in areas recovering from an existing drought like central and western OK. These rains help but the state will need some atypical July and August rains to really keep the drought at bay.

[bchris02]

The summer of 2000 had a very wet June with ample rainfall continuing into early July, but then the rains stopped and it was bone dry until late September. August that year had no rainfall at all. Early September had temps near 110 degrees that year.

[BG918]

The summer of 2000 had a very wet June with ample rainfall continuing into early July, but then the rains stopped and it was bone dry until late September. August that year had no rainfall at all. Early September had temps near 110 degrees that year.

I remember there was unseasonably cool weather into early June as well that year, like lows in the 40's which was really strange. And I remember those early season OU games in 2000 were brutally hot but there was a nice cool down in October.

[mugofbeer]

Don't be looking to CO to supply the rainy waves you've been getting the last few days. They are telling us in Denver hot and dry statewide until possibly this next weekend. Temps approaching 100 here in Denver

[Anonymous.]

Dangerous heat over the next several days. Low to mid 90s with high humidity. Potential relief coming over the weekend with some slight rain chances. The holiday week looks very hot with maybe a shot @ severe weather for the 4th.

[BG918]

I've noticed the latest couple GFS runs have showed some unsettled weather over OK at the end of the week. Hopefully that will help to lower temps.