General Weather Discussion - June 2018

[sacolton]

What's in store for Oklahoma in June?

[LocoAko]

Current thinking is a very good (60-70+ % chance) of above average temperatures, below average rainfall, and the persistence/worsening of drought. Eep.

[brian72]

Looks about right. Bring on the drought.

[stile99]

What's in store for Oklahoma in June?

Hot. With a side of hot.

[Anonymous.]

High clouds today streaming off the precipitation down in TX will help cap temperatures here slightly.

Chance of some quick showers/storms late tonight into Tuesday morning, very localized, likely somewhere over C or S OK.

[Anonymous.]

Nice little drink developed this morning on the tail end of an MCS moving through NC OK. Severe storms currently in Stillwater, but otherwise just a few run-of-the-mill thunderstorms for OKC metro.

[Anonymous.]

New severe warning on the storm moving into W sides of OKC now. Flash flooding threat is high.

[d-usa]

That’s what I get for watering my yard for the first time yesterday.

[Anonymous.]

Large severe storm moving into Edmond area and N sides of OKC. Tons of lightning. Flash flood warning still in effect for all of C and N metro.

[LocoAko]

Very bad flash flooding in parts of the metro with N OKC getting 3-4" + inches of rain prompting a Flash Flood Emergency. This was at Penn and Memorial:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enR1...ature=youtu.be

Had a ~4" diameter branch come down at my place and pea sized hail with some larger stones mixed in.

[Anonymous.]

SPC upgrading severe risk this afternoon into tonight for the western 1/3rd of OK. Short-range models are latching onto the idea of storms developing near the OK/TX border and into NW OK and form another large MCS that pushes off to the east and southeast. HRRR suggesting a heavier concentration of storms during the overnight hours somewhere near west-central OK.

Main threats will be wind and hail. A slight 2% chance of a tornado in NW OK is outlined. Also the areas over C OK that received 3+ inches of rain this morning will be very susceptible to additional flooding.

[catch22]

Did Moore S OKC get any hail? Wondering about my car...

[Bunty]

And if I'm right this storm system started out in Wyoming and made for an impressive picture and video of a tornado before leaving Wyoming? If so, just another amazing example of how the weather sometimes operates.

[SOONER8693]

Did Moore S OKC get any hail? Wondering about my car...

We live 1 mile(approx) sw of Westmoore High School, south of 134th near Penn, and we got no hail at all.

[yukong]

The storm blew bricks off the big windowless AT&T Building downtown damaging several cars parked in the bank parking lot to the north of the building. At least two cars had bricks rip holes completely through their roofs.

[Anonymous.]

Watch is out for W OK:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 160
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Oklahoma Oklahoma
Northwest Texas Including the Eastern Panhandle

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Storms have developed over northwest Texas near an outflow
boundary within a very unstable air mass. Additional storms may
develop over the eastern Texas Panhandle during the next few hours,
with all activity moving toward western Oklahoma by this evening.
Large hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles south southeast
of Childress TX to 15 miles north northwest of Gage OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

[pw405]

What the heck?! How did the forecasters miss this storm? I'm guessing we got some pretty good hail near 63rd & Expressway... when I got home there was "leaf confetti" EVERYWHERE... holy smokes, some parts of OKC north of Lake Hefner were showing 5+ inches of rain on Wundermap. Coworker in the Village had 3" of water on his front porch with some spilling into the living room.

[catch22]

We live 1 mile(approx) sw of Westmoore High School, south of 134th near Penn, and we got no hail at all.

Thanks! I live about a mile northeast of you

[LakeEffect]

What the heck?! How did the forecasters miss this storm? I'm guessing we got some pretty good hail near 63rd & Expressway... when I got home there was "leaf confetti" EVERYWHERE... holy smokes, some parts of OKC north of Lake Hefner were showing 5+ inches of rain on Wundermap. Coworker in the Village had 3" of water on his front porch with some spilling into the living room.

Damon Lane did a Facebook live the night before and showed one model that showed a cluster of storms hitting OKC during the morning commute... so, he wasn't too far off. But that was an outlier model at the time.

[Anonymous.]

It is difficult and near impossible to predict the randomness of some storm complexes in the plains in the summer months. So many storms ride along their own boundaries and basically choose their own path.

Yesterday's system was a simple MCS coming out of CO/KS that was forecast to move ESE, as it did, the southern outflow boundary kept igniting new development. This development kept compounding on itself to the south and west until it was basically just a large swath of storms. It just happened to be that the I-35 corridor got hit with the main area of development. If you look @ the rainfall map below, you can see just how localized this event was. I have mentioned many times here before, but when a storm effects a largely populated area versus the same event occurring over open fields of nothing - the perception of the forecast is skewed.

This map shows just how localized of an event this was, I-35 just happened to be in the perfect spot for the development zone to be carried out.

[Anonymous.]

Slight risk for the northwest 2/3 of OK for this evening. A large complex of storms will develop across NE and KS and slide to the south. As it does so, the western edge will be spawning new development. Much like what we saw a in the morning several days ago along I-35. Main threat is damaging winds and flashflooding.

[Anonymous.]

Storms developing now in Nebraska inside a tornado watch. These cells will form an MCS and we will see how far south and west it can run and build. Arrival in C OK will be early morning hours if they make it.

[Anonymous.]

MD is out for NW OK. Watch issuance is unlikely, but there is at least one cell trying to go up just west of Enid.



[quotw]Mesoscale Discussion 0710
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Areas affected...western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 112311Z - 120145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of hail and wind are possible
across western Oklahoma this evening, but a watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows a substantial CU field across
western OK where hot temperatures have removed CIN along the
dryline. Meanwhile, robust low-level moisture remains in place with
southeasterly surface winds. The result is very strong instability,
and a zone of uncapped air. Surface convergence near the dryline may
be sufficient for a few storms this evening, with weakly veering
winds with height supporting a south or southwestward motion. Hail
and locally damaging wind will be possible should storms initiate.

..Jewell/Hart.. 06/11/2018[/quote]

[Anonymous.]

Well the storms are actually going to try and make it. Western edge continues to backbuild just like last week. Right now the most dangerous portion is the new development that has quarter size hail and 60mph wind gusts.

OKC, especially eastern sides needs to prepare for this storm in the next hour. Around 8:15am

[Anonymous.]

Storms developing over northern sides of Edmond now. These will continue to try and fill in across OKC metro. Flash flooding and wind is the main threat now.