Population Growth for OKC

[BG918]

I've never liked the "CSA" metric for comparing metro areas. There are actually only a few metro areas in the country where using the CSA makes sense eg. Raleigh-Durham. It doesn't for OKC or Tulsa in my opinion and is simply just a way to inflate the numbers.

It is surprising that Tulsa continues to under-perform. Given the oil downturn and the improvement in the national economy, these numbers for OKC are about what should be expected.

CSA's tie together the larger MSA to adjacent micropolitan areas that have an employment interchange of at least 15%. They also represent a region that shares the same labor and media market.

The only reasons I can think of for Tulsa's tepid growth is a lack of dynamic industries creating lots of jobs and the continued oil downturn which affects Tulsa as much as OKC. Lack of a large state university in the metro is likely another factor. There is a lot of positive momentum currently in Tulsa but it hasn't yet translated into higher growth, hopefully next year's numbers show a better return especially with O&G activity picking back up. The city itself has been growing and is now over 400,000 for the first time ever and the MSA has been so close to 1 million for the past several years but just hasn't been able to get over that hump.

[Pete]

Really, the only difference between OKC's MSA and CSA is Pot County, which is mainly Shawnee.

I actually know a bunch of people who live in that area and work in OKC, so IMO it makes a lot of sense to include that county in our numbers.

[GaryOKC6]

This is a very optimistic projection not supported by historical evidence of sustained growth.

What do you mean? There was a tremendous amount of data and research that went in to this. This was not something that was cobbled together. The data includes interviews with okc's major industries to get their growth plans as well. With the changing landscape of our employment base is historical evidence even possible?

[dcsooner]

What do you mean? There was a tremendous amount of data and research that went in to this. This was not something that was cobbled together. The data includes interviews with okc's major industries to get their growth plans as well. With the changing landscape of our employment base is historical evidence even possible?

What I mean is that OKC due to well chronicled economic ups and downs primarily in Oil and Gas as well as population shifts due to e.g.poor teacher pay, has never approached 1.4% year over year growth for more than a couple years. And if the State continues down the road of mediocrity never will. Low salaries, poor health care, poor schools, lack of diversity in the job market, incarceration is an industry, sentencing laws (I could go on).
Just visited my home town Lawton, place is worse than 40 years ago. Really sad to see. Crumbling infrastructure, no job opportunities.

[GaryOKC6]

I what I mean is that OKC has due to well chronicled economic ups and downs primarily in Oil and Gas as well as population shifts due to e.g.poor teacher pay, Oklahoma and OKC have never approached 1.4% year over year growth for more than a couple years 20q9

Got it. Other industries are overtaking oil and gas. Currently oil and gas are less than 3% of our jobs. Aviation, Bio, Technology are the fastest growing. Manufacturing is also showing strong growth. Aviation has become the largest economic factor for okc.

[dcsooner]

Got it. Other industries are overtaking oil and gas. Currently oil and gas are less than 3% of our jobs. Aviation, Bio, Technology are the fastest growing. Manufacturing is also showing strong growth. Aviation has become the largest economic factor for okc.

OKC is doing OK and will likely continue to grow however, I doubt at rate reflectef in the study

[PhiAlpha]

What I mean is that OKC due to well chronicled economic ups and downs primarily in Oil and Gas as well as population shifts due to e.g.poor teacher pay, has never approached 1.4% year over year growth for more than a couple years. And if the State continues down the road of mediocrity never will. Low salaries, poor health care, poor schools, lack of diversity in the job market, incarceration is an industry, sentencing laws (I could go on).
Just visited my home town Lawton, place is worse than 40 years ago. Really sad to see. Crumbling infrastructure, no job opportunities.

In addition to all of that, have you heard about the recent cases of feline AIDS in OKC?

It's the number one killer of domestic cats...

[dcsooner]

In addition to all of that, have you heard about the recent cases of feline AIDS in OKC?

It's the number one killer of domestic cats...

Yeah, pretty sad����������☹��

[ChrisHayes]

Don't forget the CHUD problem in Oklahoma City. Lots of cannibalistic humanoid underground dwellers living in the sewers around OKC. It's a widely known problem and a reason why people don't move here along with sharknadoes.

[SOONER8693]

What I mean is that OKC due to well chronicled economic ups and downs primarily in Oil and Gas as well as population shifts due to e.g.poor teacher pay, has never approached 1.4% year over year growth for more than a couple years. And if the State continues down the road of mediocrity never will. Low salaries, poor health care, poor schools, lack of diversity in the job market, incarceration is an industry, sentencing laws (I could go on).
Just visited my home town Lawton, place is worse than 40 years ago. Really sad to see. Crumbling infrastructure, no job opportunities.

Disagree. 40-50yrs ago Lawton was a ****hole. Now, IMO, a much nicer town/city.

[BG918]

At least we're not the Rust Belt where declines continue, albeit at a slower pace in Detroit which is good news there

Michigan’s largest county, home to Detroit, lost about 3,000 residents as of July 2017, according to yearly estimates released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

While still posting the nation’s ninth largest decline, Wayne lost significantly fewer people than the home counties of the Rust Belt and Midwest cities of Chicago, Baltimore, Cleveland, St. Louis and Pittsburgh.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...ades/33167773/

[gopokes88]

Don't forget the CHUD problem in Oklahoma City. Lots of cannibalistic humanoid underground dwellers living in the sewers around OKC. It's a widely known problem and a reason why people don't move here along with sharknadoes.

Don’t forget about the tigernado a few years back

[dcsooner]

Disagree. 40-50yrs ago Lawton was a ****hole. Now, IMO, a much nicer town/city.

Ok, but, if you can please cite
HOW Lawton is better. When I was growing up Ft. Sill was a major base, no longer, major private sector employers ??, now 1 Goodyear plant. Then a semblance of a downtown now none. Population growth over 40yrs stagnant or small decline. Lost Sears, Kmart, Bank of America. Tell me what Lawton offers for employment outside of fast food restaurants. Most of my HS classmates,500+ (Lawton 72) , live elsewhere. I do not hide my place of birth, but it has not progressed.

[PhiAlpha]

Ok, but, if you can please cite
HOW Lawton is better. When I was growing up Ft. Sill was a major base, no longer, major private sector employers ??, now 1 Goodyear plant. Then a semblance of a downtown now none. Population growth over 40yrs stagnant or small decline. Lost Sears, Kmart, Bank of America. Tell me what Lawton offers for employment outside of fast food restaurants. Most of my HS classmates,500+ (Lawton 72) , live elsewhere. I do not hide my place of birth, but it has not progressed.

[dcsooner]

Mr Squiggler? my 10 year old grandson loves that character, as do you I see, LoL

[Bunty]

Rural is decreasing, an ongoing trend across the country. Technology improvements drive a need for fewer farm workers.

Advancements in technology have been causing a number of rural Oklahoma counties to drastically drop in population for a very long time as far back as the 19 teens. Tractors must have been leaving horses behind in the dust.

It's evident in northwest Oklahoma. Some examples:

Ellis county 1910 15,375, 1920 11,673 -24%, 2017 3966
Alfalfa County 1910 18,138, 1920 16,253 −10.4%, 2017 5907
Major County 1910 15,248, 1920 12,426 −18.5% , 2017 7693

[Bunty]

Really, the only difference between OKC's MSA and CSA is Pot County, which is mainly Shawnee.

I actually know a bunch of people who live in that area and work in OKC, so IMO it makes a lot of sense to include that county in our numbers.

Yep. Citi-data puts the number of workers who live and work in Shawnee at 58.5%, compared with Stillwater 88.2% and Enid 90.9%.

[Bunty]

Census estimates for July 2017 are out for counties and, therefore, metropolitan areas!

OKC at 1,384,485 - an increase of 11,274 from July 2016.
Tulsa at 990,442 - an increase of 3,241 from July 2016.

Oklahoma County itself added more (+3,750) than the Tulsa metro did overall.

The heading of this Tulsa World article isn't good for Tulsa: For the first time since 2004, more people moved out of Tulsa metro than moved in, latest census data show
http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/local...e6049920c.html (Depending on browser used, article may require payment.)

[oklip955]

Bunty as far as your numbers for those counties that have been losing population since the teens, many of them where homesteaded with a family one each quarter. The land just cannot support a family. Its taking more and more land for a family to manage to make a living. I think its a trend reflected all over the country. I don't see those areas rising in population anytime soon. What I don't understand is why there is not a trend to consolidate some of these low population counties into one to cut down on costs.

[Bunty]

Bunty as far as your numbers for those counties that have been losing population since the teens, many of them where homesteaded with a family one each quarter. The land just cannot support a family. Its taking more and more land for a family to manage to make a living. I think its a trend reflected all over the country. I don't see those areas rising in population anytime soon. What I don't understand is why there is not a trend to consolidate some of these low population counties into one to cut down on costs.

I wonder what happened to all those thousands of people who got out during the teens. They moved back to the neighboring states where they came from?

Some of the other rural counties, surely with help from oil, didn't start population declines until the Great Depression. Some have more than recovered those losses, some are far from it.

Rural schools sure went away, but county boundaries stayed the same. Too much government is still based on the conditions of 1907.

[BG918]

Rural schools sure went away, but county boundaries stayed the same. Too much government is still based on the conditions of 1907.

And unfortunately many of those rural school districts are still in place from when there were thriving farming communities which no longer exist. The Panhandle, as an example, could be one single county with Guymon as the courthouse seat. No need for Cimarron (pop. 2,475) or Beaver (pop. 5,636) counties and their respective administrative structures and school districts, run all of it from Guymon.

Fun fact(s) about Cimarron County: it's the only county in Oklahoma that has a town (Kenton) on Mountain Standard Time. It's county seat, Boise City, is closer to Denver than it is to OKC.

[Bellaboo]

And unfortunately many of those rural school districts are still in place from when there were thriving farming communities which no longer exist. The Panhandle, as an example, could be one single county with Guymon as the courthouse seat. No need for Cimarron (pop. 2,475) or Beaver (pop. 5,636) counties and their respective administrative structures and school districts, run all of it from Guymon.

Fun fact(s) about Cimarron County: it's the only county in Oklahoma that has a town (Kenton) on Mountain Standard Time. It's county seat, Boise City, is closer to Denver than it is to OKC.

Another fun fact - Cimarron County touches more states than any other county in America. Answer = 4. Colorado, New Mexico, Texas and Kansas

[OKCRT]

Yep. Citi-data puts the number of workers who live and work in Shawnee at 58.5%, compared with Stillwater 88.2% and Enid 90.9%.

Shawnee/Pott County should most def. be linked in OKC metro. I couldn't and wouldn't say that 15 years ago but today I most def. can. Lots of people tripping from OKC to Shawnee and visa versa on a daily basis today. There is no doubt about it and it is part of the metro. That would push OKC to right around 1.5 mil if included correct?

[RodH]

Pottawatomie County was included in the OKC metro area until 1999.

[Zuplar]

Since OKC extends its city limits into Pottowatamie County shouldn’t it be counted for that reason alone?