General Weather Discussion - February and March 2018

[Anonymous.]

I guess you can't edit a thread after so long, so I created new one for these two months. Going to combine since the weather has been a snoozer so far and Feb is short anyways.


This weekend: Temperatures slowly climb this weekend before dropping again Monday into Tuesday. A slight chance of rain/rainsnow mix Monday night into Tuesday, best bet is N and E OK.


Looking long-range: Models have consistently brought a storm into the plains for next weekend (Feb. 10). I wouldn't hold my breath considering this pattern. But one thing to note is the consistency is something to keep watch on. And this brings with it, some abnormally late-season cold arctic air across a large part of the country.

[turnpup]

Well the groundhog did predict six more weeks of winter.

[bchris02]

It looks like we have a potential ice storm on Tuesday. I'm surprised there aren't more people talking about that.

[catch22]

It looks like we have a potential ice storm on Tuesday. I'm surprised there aren't more people talking about that.

Hopefully I can get to the store in time.

[Celebrator]

It looks like we have a potential ice storm on Tuesday. I'm surprised there aren't more people talking about that.

Because the amounts and impacts look to be minimal right now.

[Anonymous.]

Yes, not an icestorm. More of a freezing drizzle/glazing potential.

Impacts look minimal, mostly a morning drive on Tuesday type deal.


As for the storm this weekend, right on cue it is falling apart in the models and impacts look to be minimal and pushed way further east with moisture.

[Anonymous.]

We should see precip. begin developing in the next few hours Mainly contained to the SE half of the state. Everything will be very light/drizzly.

[BusySpeechMom]

Any opinions on snow this weekend? I would love to see any type of moisture at this point.

[Bill Robertson]

Any opinions on snow this weekend? I would love to see any type of moisture at this point.

GFS and NAM show a little bit of rain/something in eastern Oklahoma over the weekend and that’s it. Nothing in central OK.

[John1744]

Oh Mike.

[Anonymous.]

Waiting for tonight's runs before any details. But yes basically summed up in the last few posts. Big storm 6-10 days out, that turns into basically nothing for the plains. This has been the same trend the entire winter.

Currently about 8 days out there is shown a massive storm across the state bringing heavy precipitation. This, too, will likely fizzle into a nothing forecast in a few days. The drought has a strangle-hold on NM/TX/OK. The entire Texas panhandle is a matchstick.

[Mott]

Waiting for tonight's runs before any details. But yes basically summed up in the last few posts. Big storm 6-10 days out, that turns into basically nothing for the plains. This has been the same trend the entire winter.

Currently about 8 days out there is shown a massive storm across the state bringing heavy precipitation. This, too, will likely fizzle into a nothing forecast in a few days. The drought has a strangle-hold on NM/TX/OK. The entire Texas panhandle is a matchstick.

Friends in Santa Fe say it's dry as a bone.........

[pw405]

Situation is turning pretty bad here. Really would like some rain!

[SoonerDave]

Okay, was planning an afternoon down-and-back to the Dallas area on Saturday, but I really don't want to find myself on a slip-n-slide. Is the ice tomorrow something I should really be concerned about?

[Anonymous.]

Models are basically all agreeing that this will be a non-event for most of OK. It will be very similar to the last system. Possible spotty freezing drizzle and sleet anywhere over the eastern half of OK. Your best shot being in extreme E OK. Brief moderate snow in a couple counties in the panhandle.

[LocoAko]

D3 ("Extreme") drought now covering 37.76% of Oklahoma, up from 21.11% last week. Today will be the 119th day with zero precipitation in Amarillo, with a similar statistic in Woodward. The last 90 days are the second driest on record statewide and the driest on record for the Panhandle, north-central, and west-central Oklahoma.

Not a good situation heading into Spring at all. Hopefully we can turn it around, but these patterns have a way of reinforcing themselves...

[bchris02]

Not a good situation heading into Spring at all. Hopefully we can turn it around, but these patterns have a way of reinforcing themselves...

On the bright side maybe we will have a quieter severe season this year.

In terms of drought relief, I remember 2014 was pretty dry going into spring but we had some nice NW flow MCS systems that summer.

[Bunty]

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

Areas Affected:
Cleveland - Hughes - Lincoln - Logan - McClain - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Pottawatomie - Seminole
Effective: Sat, 2/10 12:00am Updated: Fri, 2/9 8:50pm Urgency: Expected
Expires: Sat, 2/10 12:00pm Severity: Minor Certainty: Likely

Details:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Patchy freezing drizzle. A thin glaze of ice may
accumulate in some areas to cause hazardous travel conditions.
* WHERE...Portions of central and north central Oklahoma.
* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon CST Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be especially careful on bridges and
overpasses.

Information:

Be prepared for slippery roads and use caution while driving. The
latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Counties covered:

[jn1780]

D3 ("Extreme") drought now covering 37.76% of Oklahoma, up from 21.11% last week. Today will be the 119th day with zero precipitation in Amarillo, with a similar statistic in Woodward. The last 90 days are the second driest on record statewide and the driest on record for the Panhandle, north-central, and west-central Oklahoma.

Not a good situation heading into Spring at all. Hopefully we can turn it around, but these patterns have a way of reinforcing themselves...

Hopefully, with La Nina going away, this spring will bring some drought relief.

Unfortunately, with global warming this is probably the new norm. The last long drought was only about 2 or 3 years ago.

[In_Tulsa]

Unfortunately, with global warming this is probably the new norm. The last long drought was only about 2 or 3 years ago.[/QUOTE]

You lost credibility with me!

[HangryHippo]

You lost credibility with me!

lulz (if serious)

[jn1780]

You lost credibility with me!

That's fine. Even if you don't believe humans are causing it, there is little doubt the Earth on average is slightly warmer ever year. That's going to affect the weather.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs...l-temperature/

[Bunty]

You lost credibility with me!

A major metro area could burn down during an extreme drought, such as one of them in California, and skeptics still wouldn't blame it on global warming or climate change. Or that there is any need to do something about it.

[mugofbeer]

There have always been droughts and wildfires in the west. Ref: the dustbowl (obviously exacerbated by poor farming techniques ) and many prior to that. What is changing is the number of humans living in the drought/flood-prone areas. Species of plants and animals have evolved for centuries around these weather events. Ref: pines that require fire for cones to open abd spread seeds. Of course, we are in a warming pattern so we need to prepare for possible changes to the frequency of droughts and flood periods. The wildfires in LA were the result of the excessive rainfall of last summer and fall and the lush growth of brush as a result - again, nothing unusual -but that there are now millions of people living in the area.

[Anonymous.]

Extreme fire danger today with highs near records.

The big storm system has once again evaporated for the majority of the state. Friday we may see some light to moderate rain bands develop from SW OK to E OK. The cut-off line will be sharp to the north and may cut the OKC metro in half. Temperatures will plummet into the upper 30s with the rain and no serious winter precipitation is expected.

Temps rebound Saturday and Sunday near 60. And creep back towards 70s for Monday before falling again Tuesday into Wednesday. Models are having a tough time trying to add moisture to this next temperature swing, but it will likely be like the last 4 months and go to the dry-side.

This state is going to go up in flames this spring with the strong south winds unless we get some moisture.

Since winter officially began, majority of the state is either the driest ever in [recordable] history, or is close to it. The only areas not close are in eastern and southeastern OK, where it is still abnormally dry.