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Thread: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

  1. #1

    Default 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    2018 will begin in a couple of hours.

    2018 schedule changes so far:

    January - United drops nonstop service to Los Angeles (LAX)
    March - ViaAir begins 4x weekly nonstop service to Austin, TX (AUS)
    April - American begins 1x daily nonstop service to Phoenix, AZ (PHX)
    April - Frontier begins 4x weekly nonstop service to San Diego, CA (SAN)
    April - Southwest resumes 1x weekly nonstop service to Orlando, FL (MCO)
    May - United resumes 1x daily nonstop service to New York/Newark, NJ (EWR)

    What to watch for:

    Alaska:

    I am hopeful to see the Seattle flight upgraded to a larger aircraft. The route has been operating for more than 2 years at 85-90% average capacity. That said, their hands are full with the buyout of Virgin America and the feeling is they have bit off more than they can chew. They are not devoting the same attention to route development as they were before the merger. In fact, they have been retreating due to their mismanagement of the pilot shortage at Horizon Air.

    Allegiant:

    No one really knows with them. Currently they offer service to LAS and SFB (Orlando-Sanford) with seasonal service to LAX and VPS (Destin, FL). If the numbers looked good last year, the possibility of the same service returning looks good. Maybe some kind of wildcard addition with them is possible. MSY wouldn't be a crazy bet. Although I am not expecting that.

    American:

    Not expecting any major changes outside of what has been announced, but I wouldn't rule out the faint possibility of either PHL or MIA service being announced. Later in the year we may see some changes depending on how the addition of PHX affects their other flights.

    Delta:

    Not expecting any changes. Summer schedule might see some changes (upgauges or additional frequencies) to hubs other than ATL. A wildcard is with UA leaving the OKC-LAX market, they may look to that as an opportunity to grow west. Currently DL has practically no west presence out of OKC. 2 RJ flights to SLC are a drop in the bucket compared to AA, UA, and WN.

    Frontier:

    They fall in the same bucket as Allegiant, they are really all over the place. I could see them changing the DEN flight to daily (it is currently daily, but when SAN begins it goes to 4x weekly) for the summer. If the Orlando flight has done well for them thus far, the possibility of them adding some frequency to that market also wouldn't be a long shot. I doubt we will see new destinations from them.

    Southwest:

    Not expecting any changes from them either. With American entering the OKC-PHX market they might attempt another flight there to round out their offerings, but I am not expecting them to put up a fight with them. It's not an important market in the grand scheme of things.

    United:

    Not expecting any changes. With the drop of OKC-LAX the possibility of a second SFO flight does increase, but I don't think it is necessarily likely. If it does, it might just be a summer change.

    Via Air:

    They begin 4x weekly service to Austin, TX in March. I don't expect them to last long in the market, unfortunately. But I would be thrilled to be proven wrong.


    Current route map (combined)

  2. #2

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Looks like Southwest will attempt the seasonal, 1x weekly roundtrip to Orlando beginning Apr 8. I guess it did decent enough for them to try that again.

  3. #3

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Wait... will there be no more direct flights to LAX at all!?

  4. #4

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Plutonic Panda View Post
    Wait... will there be no more direct flights to LAX at all!?
    American currently operates 2 daily round trip flights to LAX, and Allegiant offers seasonal less-than-daily flights to LAX in the late spring/summer.

  5. #5

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Would be nice to see AA add an additional PHX frequency. A morning departure from OKC combined with an evening departure from PHX back to OKC would work great for our trips out west. Here's hoping they add it soon.

  6. #6

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Someone used to post the daily passenger volume to each city. Does anyone remember who or know how to pull that data?

  7. #7

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NWOKCGuy View Post
    Someone used to post the daily passenger volume to each city. Does anyone remember who or know how to pull that data?
    I can put some tables together tonight. Are there any destinations you have in mind particularly?

  8. #8

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Here are the top city pairs:

    Google the airport codes if you don't know it, the full table I made for OKC has roughly 100 rows and I wasn't going to type city names out.

    City | # Round trip passengers per day. Divide by 2 for rough idea of passengers "one way". This data is from Quarter 2, 2017. This is the most recent data available.

    HOU 583
    LAX 483
    DEN 462
    *WAS 433
    ORD 398
    LAS 354
    *NYC 289
    ATL 285
    SEA 242
    DFW 227
    MCO 216
    SFO 211
    PHX 208
    BOS 170
    SAN 145
    MIA 130
    STL 130
    SAT 118
    SLC 116
    PDX 108
    CLT 107
    TPA 106
    MSP 101
    AUS 99
    PHL 94
    BNA 90
    SMF 90
    VPS 90
    SFB 85
    DTW 82
    MSY 77
    RDU 71
    PIT 70


    * WAS = Washington DC (IAD/DCA/BWI) NYC = New York City/Newark NJ (EWR/LGA/JFK)

  9. #9
    HangryHippo Guest

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    I'd love for an airline to try OKC to LGA/JFK and either BOS or PHL. It looks like the traffic to MSY sucks, but that's another route I'd personally appreciate.

  10. #10

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    I'd love for an airline to try OKC to LGA/JFK and either BOS or PHL. It looks like the traffic to MSY sucks, but that's another route I'd personally appreciate.
    MSY is a route which competes heavily with the automobile, so if a nonstop flight were available the market would likely be stimulated. It seems like an Allegiant or Frontier route.

    A good example of this is CLT, before AA/US started the route the numbers were around 30-50 per day. Now it is 70-115 depending on the season.

  11. #11
    HangryHippo Guest

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by catch22 View Post
    MSY is a route which competes heavily with the automobile, so if a nonstop flight were available the market would likely be stimulated. It seems like an Allegiant or Frontier route.

    A good example of this is CLT, before AA/US started the route the numbers were around 30-50 per day. Now it is 70-115 depending on the season.
    Very interesting. Thank you for the insight. Is it a route Southwest might try? I don’t trust Allegiant and don’t really care for Frontier.

  12. #12

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Very interesting. Thank you for the insight. Is it a route Southwest might try? I don’t trust Allegiant and don’t really care for Frontier.
    Unlikely, they have been consolidating in larger markets as they slowly complete their shift from a P2P carrier to a hub-and-spoke network carrier. Not to say they will completely get away from point to points markets, however the possibility of them adding a relatively weak market like OKC-MSY is fairly small. They serve the market well thru DAL and HOU.

    I'd prefer frontier out of the two to grow in OKC. Allegiant is a travel agency that has an in-house people mover, while Frontier is more dedicated to being an airline.

    If Delta actually takes delivery of the C-Series, OKC-BOS wouldn't be out of the question. They've been devoting some attention to growing in BOS.

  13. #13

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Only 227 passengers coming and going to DFW per day? Seems way low.

    I see that Stillwater's AA flight had double their expectation in 2017.

  14. #14

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by onthestrip View Post
    Only 227 passengers coming and going to DFW per day? Seems way low.

    I see that Stillwater's AA flight had double their expectation in 2017.
    Seems right to me. Keep in mind these are market specific. Someone flying OKC-DFW-LAX is counted as an OKC-LAX passenger and not OKC-DFW. OKC-DFW only includes people flying whose final destination is DFW.

  15. #15

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by catch22 View Post
    Seems right to me. Keep in mind these are market specific. Someone flying OKC-DFW-LAX is counted as an OKC-LAX passenger and not OKC-DFW. OKC-DFW only includes people flying whose final destination is DFW.
    I see, makes sense now.

    Thanks for the interesting info.

  16. #16

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by catch22 View Post
    MSY is a route which competes heavily with the automobile, so if a nonstop flight were available the market would likely be stimulated. It seems like an Allegiant or Frontier route.

    A good example of this is CLT, before AA/US started the route the numbers were around 30-50 per day. Now it is 70-115 depending on the season.
    Allegiant tried TUL-MSY a couple years ago but ended it pretty quickly. Southwest could make it work but not likely not with a 737. Same thing with other regional cities like KC, Nashville and Austin/San Antonio.

  17. #17

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Someone help me out with these flights. I see UAL sent 1x 767 right after The Rose Bowl to OKC and then 2x777'S yesterday. That one flight is a United Airlines plane even though the call sign is not UAL. I don't recall seeing a 767 leave OKC or even an additional 777 before The Rose Bowl so what was the purpose of these flights??

    Click image for larger version. 

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  18. #18

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by damonsmuz View Post
    Someone help me out with these flights. I see UAL sent 1x 767 right after The Rose Bowl to OKC and then 2x777'S yesterday. That one flight is a United Airlines plane even though the call sign is not UAL. I don't recall seeing a 767 leave OKC or even an additional 777 before The Rose Bowl so what was the purpose of these flights??

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    Registration (tail number) of the 777-300.

  19. #19

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by damonsmuz View Post
    Someone help me out with these flights. I see UAL sent 1x 767 right after The Rose Bowl to OKC and then 2x777'S yesterday. That one flight is a United Airlines plane even though the call sign is not UAL. I don't recall seeing a 767 leave OKC or even an additional 777 before The Rose Bowl so what was the purpose of these flights??

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    The 767 was for the team and the 777 was for the band.

  20. #20

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Ah ha. That's what I meant. Reg number. So if a 767 was for the team and a 777 was for the band then what was the additional 777 for?

  21. #21

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    That is strange, it was the same 77W for both trips. It ferried back to LAX then chartered back to OKC. Then ferried to SFO to resume regular service.

    It was essentially full for both LAX-OKC segments.

  22. #22

    Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    Thanks for putting that together Catch!

    Interesting Seattle is as high as it is. Would seem we could definitely support an upgrade there. Ib imagine part of that PDX number flies through Seattle well.

  23. Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    as was mentioned, the numbers are O&D and not fly-through/connections. so the Seattle numbers are just Seattle as the start or end destination, Portland is just PDX.
    Oklahoma City, the RENAISSANCE CITY!

  24. Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    catch, was there no numbers for MDW or did ORD include the Chicago market as a whole?

    very surprised there wouldn't be anything for WN's largest hub, even though the service was/will be dropped. ...
    Oklahoma City, the RENAISSANCE CITY!

  25. Default Re: 2018 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

    I think an even more interesting view is to see the airline terminators based on non-stop flights to/from OKC (looks like OKC has pretty good coverage):

    HOU 583
    LAX 483
    DEN 462

    *WAS 433
    ORD 398
    LAS 354
    *NYC 289
    ATL 285
    SEA 242
    DFW 227
    MCO 216
    SFO 211
    PHX 208
    BOS 170
    SAN 145
    MIA 130
    STL 130
    SAT 118
    SLC 116
    PDX 108
    CLT 107
    TPA 106
    MSP 101
    AUS 99
    PHL 94
    BNA 90
    SMF 90
    VPS 90
    SFB 85
    DTW 82
    MSY 77
    RDU 71
    PIT 70
    Oklahoma City, the RENAISSANCE CITY!

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