General Weather Discussion - October & November 2017

[Anonymous.]

Just realized I have been posting in last months threads. Going to copy my last two posts from today here:

We will see storms develop this afternoon and evening across NW OK and down across NC TX. Storms will develop and track out of TX into S and SW OK and ride up over C OK during the overnight hours. Wednesday morning commute will likely be a wet one.

Temperatures will be pretty static for the next week with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

Storms are beginning to develop as said above.

Short-range models are suggesting a concentrated area of heavy rain (4"+) somewhere over C OK. There is growing concern of local flash flooding by early morning wherever the development training occurs.

[Bunty]

FLOOD WATCH FOR METRO

Areas Affected:
Caddo - Canadian - Carter - Cleveland - Comanche - Cotton - Garvin - Grady - Johnston - Kingfisher - Lincoln - Logan - McClain - Murray - Oklahoma - Payne - Pontotoc - Pottawatomie - Seminole - Stephens

Effective: Wed, 10/4 1:45am Updated: Wed, 10/4 3:45am Urgency: Future
Expires: Wed, 10/4 7:00pm Severity: Moderate Certainty: Possible

Details:

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a
* Flood Watch for flash flooding...flooding of creeks and
rivers...and flooding of low lying areas for portions of central
Oklahoma, east central Oklahoma, southeast Oklahoma, southern
Oklahoma, and southwest Oklahoma, including the following areas,
in central Oklahoma, Canadian, Cleveland, Grady, Kingfisher,
Lincoln, Logan, McClain, Oklahoma, Payne, and Pottawatomie. In
east central Oklahoma, Pontotoc and Seminole. In southeast
Oklahoma, Johnston. In southern Oklahoma, Carter, Garvin,
Murray, and Stephens. In southwest Oklahoma, Caddo, Comanche,
and Cotton.
* Through 7 pm Wednesday
* Heavy rainfall will occur with periods of showers and a few
thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon.
* Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are likely with higher amounts
possible.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

COUNTIES AFFECTED:

[John1744]

Looks like the latest models are showing darn near 4 inches of rain in spots of central OK from today's system. Gonna be a soaker.

[Anonymous.]

Looks like the heaviest rainfall totals will line up from about El Reno to just north of the Guthrie area.

[bchris02]

How does 2017 compare to 2007 and 2015 in terms of annual rainfall so far? I am curious if OKC will be looking at a record or near record wet year this year.

[Bunty]

Definitely not like 2007. 2007 was unforgettable for a lot of rain. Some locations in central Oklahoma went over 60" for year's total, which were all time records. But weather is like real estate -- location, location, location. So it depends. My own annual tally just went over 34". Average annual is 36.71". Unless the rain shuts down for the rest of the year, all of Oklahoma should be able to get its average annual rain amount this year. If the heavy rain stays persistent for the rest of the year, you could be looking at one of the rainiest years ever.

Pawnee to the northeast of me just went over 6", so once again, it gets down to location, location, location. And proves how hard it is to forecast the weather accurately. Pawnee County isn't in the flood watch when initially issued.

[BG918]

Definitely not like 2007. 2007 was unforgettable for a lot of rain. Some locations went over 60" for year's total, which were all time records. But weather is like real estate -- location, location, location. So it depends. My own annual tally just went over 34". Average annual is 36.71". Unless the rain shuts down for the rest of the year, all of Oklahoma should be able to get its average annual rain amount this year. If the heavy rain stays persistent for the rest of the year, you could be looking at one of the rainiest years ever.

Some areas in eastern OK are already approaching records. The all-time record is 76.61" in Broken Bow in 2009. For comparison a tropical rainforest typically averages over 80" annually.



And average annual rainfall...would be interested to see 2000-2017 compared to this map of averages from 1961-1990:

[d-usa]

Spend 6 hours standing in the rain at the OKC PD shooting range, there was no point even trying to stay dry. It was soaked out there.

[Bunty]

As of 5:35 pm, Will Rogers World Airport in Oklahoma City has had a record of 2.56". Previous record on Oct. 4th was 2.22" in 1955.

Rain in Pawnee is at 7.58". Rain there is about over.

[Anonymous.]

Chance of strong storms Friday evening. Storms will fire in a line from KS into the TX PH. These will push east as we head into the night and eventually weaken. Likely will not be severe by the time they reach C OK, but W OK could see gusty winds or small hail.

[Anonymous.]

Strong storm will be coming through the plains Monday evening. Rain chances will be mostly NE and E OK. But the entire state will feel a significant drop in temperatures as highs Tues and Wed will only be in the 60s. Lows will be down into the 40s until late week when we begin to moderate.

[Bunty]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH out until 10 pm for the NE quarter of Oklahoma. Oklahoma County not included.

Areas Affected:
Adair - Cherokee - Craig - Creek - Delaware - Kay - Lincoln - Mayes - McIntosh - Muskogee - Noble - Nowata - Okfuskee - Okmulgee - Osage - Ottawa - Pawnee - Payne - Rogers - Tulsa - Wagoner - Washington

Effective: Mon, 10/9 2:55pm Updated: Mon, 10/9 3:00pm Urgency: Expected
Expires: Mon, 10/9 10:00pm Severity: Severe Certainty: Likely

COUNTIES AFFECTED:

[Bunty]

Storms have started in southeast Kansas as of 3:30pm.

[Anonymous.]

Yes, boundary just came through OKC. Winds will shift from NW and cool air will filter down the rest of tonight and tomorrow. Open your windows and turn off the AC!

[SoonerDave]

Feels awesome!!

[Pete]

Feels awesome!!

Sooooo agree!

I love the cool fall weather... Sitting outside with my dogs loving life.

[Paseofreak]

I somehow don't think it's gonna be so comfy in the morning.

[Anonymous.]

Severe weather is likely Saturday evening. At this time, it looks like could see a line of storms come out of NW OK and swing through to the south and east. Damaging winds main culprit at this time.

[Anonymous.]

Storms should develop tomorrow afternoon late in NW OK and SW KS.

This will spread south and east into the main body of OK as we head into the night. Storms should not be severe, but could get severe warned if winds appear to be strong with the line.

[Anonymous.]

Just like last week, we are building warmth ahead of the next storm. Which will once again be coming through Saturday evening. It will be basically identical to last weekend with storms coming out of the NW in a line, likely providing damaging winds.

[Anonymous.]

SPC has already upgraded Saturday to an 'enhanced' risk across OK. Models have hinted at potential for supercells to develop ahead of main squall-line. Any storms that do develop ahead of this line will have a window of opportunity for large hail and outside shot @ a small tornado. Nevertheless, the main threat still remains with damaging winds with the main line of storms.

[Anonymous.]

Models still hanging onto the idea of initial supercells. SPC hatched area over basically all of C OK for large hail and damaging winds with a weak chance of a tornado early. Hail and tornado threats will be with cells that develop ahead of the main line that will be coming out of W/NW OK. The line's focus will be damaging winds.

[Bunty]

Meanwhile, it doesn't look like a bad winter is coming with temps having a chance of being warmer than normal: http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us...er-drier-south

[Roger S]

Meanwhile, it doesn't look like a bad winter is coming with temps having a chance of being warmer than normal: http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us...er-drier-south

I guess that depends on how you look at bad..... We may be a powder keg if that drier forecast happens.

[d-usa]

Combined with a wet warm fall to get a lot of growth that can then dry up.