Welcome to the end of May with slight risks the next 3 days...again.

TODAY - Slight Risk is mainly from Norman to Ardmore and back to the South & West.
MAIN THREATS - Large Hail & Damaging Wind.

...PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... DESPITE WEAKLY RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS...A WEAK/SUBTLE VORT MAX IS
PROGGED TO CROSS NM AND APPROACH NWRN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE WEAK SURFACE
FRONT...FRONTAL ASCENT -- AIDED BY THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE --
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

WITH MODERATE WLYS AT MID LEVELS ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS...0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS -- AND
ATTENDANT THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. AS A
SLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF TX DURING THE
EVENING...STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD/DEVELOP
EWD/NEWD WITH TIME...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
TOMORROW - Slight Risk for Central & Western Oklahoma including an Enhanced Risk area from I-35 (including the Metro) to the West.
MAIN THREATS - Very Large Hail and some Damaging Winds. Tornado threat should be low.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS... WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/NEBULOUS LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY
TO EXIST ATOP A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN TX AND OK/SOUTHERN KS ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SPECIFIC SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT AN
ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS INDICATIVE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST PROBABLE NEAR/NORTHEAST OF A HEAT-AIDED
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST TX...PERHAPS MOST LIKELY NEAR A STALLED
BOUNDARY/CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS WESTERN OK/PERHAPS
SOUTHERN KS. HERE...THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE
POTENTIALLY REACHING 2500-3500 J/KG AMID 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
WHERE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR...AMPLE
INSTABILITY/VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES COINCIDENT WITH MODERATELY STRONG
MID-HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS CONGEAL/ORGANIZE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN SPITE OF
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL TEND TO BE HINDERED BY RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGH BASES /ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS UNDERESTIMATING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/.
TUESDAY - Slight Risk for most of the state except far Eastern areas. Enhances Risk from the OKC Metro area and North of I-40 and West of I-35.
MAIN RISKS - Wide spread damaging winds from storm complexes moving SE with some large hail from earlier storms.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... WHILE GUIDANCE REGARDING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FEATURES
VARY...AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE OF AN
AMPLIFYING SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO
THE EAST OF 1/ A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/NORTHWEST TX
AND 2/ A SOUTH-TO-NORTH EXTENDING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...AND OTHERWISE IN VICINITY OF A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
OK/SOUTHERN KS. CURRENT THINKING IS THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR
SURFACE BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN KS INTO
WESTERN/NORTHERN OK. GIVEN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES WITH
HEIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION...SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY
BE THE CASE PRIOR TO THE POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING TSTM CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.