More people are sounding the alarm of a double-dip recession and all the fundamentals I see sure make it appear likely: lower consumer confidence/spending, stubborn unemployment, a major drop in manufacturing and durable good orders. I really hope we don't have another recession, but if we do, I'm getting more concerned for Oklahoma and OKC because I don't think we'll withstand a new one like we did the previous one.
The last recession was fairly mild for OKC due to our relatively stable home prices and our energy companies doing well. Over the past week, however, energy prices have plummeted. Oil is below $90 and natural gas is below $4. This is good for the consumer because it lowers gasoline prices and heating costs in the winter, but it's bad for our major energy employers. Right now, consumers are saving any extra income they get, as contrasted to the energy companies reinvesting, hiring, and spending it on all types of projects.
What do you guys think? Am I off here? Is OKC headed for trouble, along with the rest of the nation? If the economy re-enters a recession that means lower MAPS 3 revenue, lower regular sales tax revenue, and possibly the freezing of many commercial and residential projects. If there is another recession, I hope we can weather it as well as we did the last, but I'm not so sure we can.
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