DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CDT WED MAR 24 2010

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK/TX...

...SRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
MORNING ANALYSES AND MODELS ARE IN LINE WITH EARLIER FORECASTS
ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. INTENSE MID/UPPER LOW NOW OVER
SRN CO/NRN NM WILL PROGRESS STEADILY ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH GRADUALLY TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE-TILT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL/SWRN OK THIS
MORNING /ALONG A FRONT EXTENDING FROM NWRN MO/SERN KS INTO W-CENTRAL
TX AT 15Z/ WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER DEFINED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
INTO WRN AR/SRN MO. THIS WILL OCCUR AS COLD FRONT SURGES SEWD OUT
OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ONCE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS
ACCELERATING EWD LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
IMPULSE...MODEST WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE CHARACTERIZED BY
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INTO CENTRAL OK.

COMBINATION OF STOUT CAPPING EVIDENT ON 12Z SOUNDINGS AND SLOW
EROSION/NEWD ADVECTION OF MORNING STRATUS OVER N-CENTRAL TX/CENTRAL
OK SHOULD DELAY DESTABILIZATION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION
APPEARS TO BE OVER NWRN TX/SWRN OK WHERE GREATER HEATING SHOULD
DEVELOP GIVEN MORE LIMITED CLOUDS. FORECAST OF MLCAPE UPWARDS OF
500-1000 J/KG STILL APPEARS ON TRACK ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
SHALLOW COLD FRONT BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER NWRN TX INTO
CENTRAL OK...WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZATION AS STORMS DEVELOP BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD AND EXPAND NEWD AND SSWWD ALONG THE FRONT AS
INCREASED ASCENT AIDS IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
ATTM...PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE FROM LARGE HAIL AS STORMS TEND
TO BE UNDERCUT AND/OR DEVELOP ATOP CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER
AS FRONTAL LIFT DEEPENS AND SLOPE STEEPENS WITH TIME THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER SYSTEM...ACTIVITY SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL OK-TX/RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO AR/WRN LA OVERNIGHT.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW WIND AND TORNADO PROBABILITIES GIVEN
STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED ORGANIZATION
OVERNIGHT.