I'm going to hold off on the pretty pictures for right now, but will post the Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks. Day 2's focus will be western Oklahoma, but like today, the weather will probably make it into the Metro but maybe not severe. Day 3 looks more widespread for severe weather, but nothing out of control though at this time.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINSAND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY IN THE WRN STATES AS A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE SHOULD BIN PLACE FROM THE VICINITY OF WRN NEB SWD INTO FAR WRN KS AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IN NW OK AND SW KS SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND HOW FAR WEST THE DRYLINE SETS UP AND UPON HOW MANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF IL AND MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES...MID-MS VALLEY...OZARKS...CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS...

...UPPER TO MID-MS VALLEY/OZARKS/SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN STATES AS A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CREATE A LARGE WARM SECTOR FROM THE SRN PLAINS NNEWD ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER-MS VALLEY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET OVER THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AN MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN THE MID-MS VALLEY WITH THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM NCNTRL IL SWWD ACROSS MO INTO SE KS. MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO A WELL-DEVELOPED LINEAR MCS EWD ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY SWWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY...NRN OZARKS INTO ERN OK WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD CERTAINTY CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS THE ISSUANCE OF A MODERATE RISK IN IL AND MO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PARAMETERS ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF INTENSE STORMS. SWWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SRN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED DUE TO WEAKER FORCING. A GRADUAL DROP OFF IN SEVERE REPORT COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR IN THE OZARKS AND SRN PLAINS FOR THIS REASON.

..BROYLES.. 05/11/2009