Quote Originally Posted by BoulderSooner View Post
i don't think we are currently on track for any rate cut this year ... and especially not 4-5 in the next year ..
It's all about the labor market at this point which is continuing to show signs of weakness. Fed sees the funds rate being 125bps lower by end of next year. They could very well be wrong again though.

Quote Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
I don't see how they can do 4-5 rate cuts and hope to dampen inflation. My business has been hammered by higher rates so I hope it happens but I think it will be 2026 before we see any major cuts.
PCE is running at 2.7% annual right now which isn't far off the arbitrary 2% target. If not for some very misleading ways home & shelter are calculated we would pretty much be there already. Leaving rates unnecessarily high is only driving real inflation up. Home prices & borrowing costs are not calculated in CPI or PCE but have an outsized effect on real inflation. Not to mention the divergence with the rest of the world cutting rates now - ECB, Canada, etc are going to create big risks here if they leave our rates high and more money starts flowing in here driving real rates & inflation up more.