General Weather Discussion - May 2014

[ou48A]

There is a large wedge tornado about 45 minutes to 1 hour west of the Lincoln NE metro moving in that general direction..
Parameters in that area will stay high for a long tracked tornado!.... per the WCH

[venture]

There is a large wedge tornado about 45 minutes to 1 hour west of the Lincoln NE metro moving in that general direction..
Parameters in that area will stay high for a long tracked tornado!.... per the WCH

It is embedded in the warm front. As long as it stays rooted it'll keep going.

[PennyQuilts]

Are we pretty much out of the rumble or is this stuff likely to creep in our direction?

[venture]

Are we pretty much out of the rumble or is this stuff likely to creep in our direction?

The CU field in SW OK is trying. Nothing has been able to just break through yet.

Last chance is with the front where we should see something, but it very well could just be a quick shot of rain and that's it. Nothing that is going to soak in.

[jn1780]

I give up on spring 2014, Looks like were just going to have to hope for a tropical storm from the gulf or El Nino fall rains.

[venture]

Cell is finally trying to go over over Sayre in SW OK.

[PennyQuilts]

Cell is finally trying to go over over Sayre in SW OK.

Watching it. It really popped up fast.

[venture]

Dryline is really wanting to go. Another echo in Harmon County.

[venture]

[venture]

Updated image...

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 120051Z - 120145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF ANY STORMS WILL BE SUSTAINED ACROSS THE
ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK...BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS.

DISCUSSION...0030Z VISIBLE SHOWS TOWERING CU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH ANY MATURE STORMS...BUT WITH SOME RESIDUAL CAP IN
PLACE AND IMMINENT DIURNAL COOLING...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF ANY CELLS
WILL MATURE IN THIS REGION. SIGNIFICANT HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SUPERCELL...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GIVEN THE
HOT...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION...BUT WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS IMMINENT.

DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 05/12/2014

[venture]

[venture]

Severe Thunderstorm watch is being issued.

[venture]

Watch counties...


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 146 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC009-011-039-043-055-057-065-075-093-129-149-120700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0146.140512T0120Z-140512T0700Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER
DEWEY GREER HARMON
JACKSON KIOWA MAJOR
ROGER MILLS WA****A

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
820 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 820 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 110 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 142...WW 143...WW
144...WW 145...

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG TWO DRYLINE
SEGMENTS INVOF WRN OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AS FLOW BACKS TO SELY
ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
NWWD. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS WRN OK.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (<2%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Low (10%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

Mod (60%)

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0573
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0830 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK...SWRN INTO CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 143...

VALID 120130Z - 120300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 143 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM
SWRN INTO CNTRL KS...THOUGH A TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE LINEAR MODE MAY
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY TO THE
EAST OF WW 143.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SWRN
INTO CNTRL KS. A FEW TORNADOES WERE NOTED EARLIER IN SWRN KS...ALONG
WITH MANY REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND. WHILE T-TD SPREADS
HAVE NOT BEEN IDEAL FOR A SUSTAINED TORNADO THREAT...A COOLING AND
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL RESULT IN A WINDOW OF CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING
WITH ANY SUSTAINED DISCRETE CELLS. HOWEVER...A SURGING COLD FRONT IS
RESULTING IN LINEAR UPSCALE GROWTH ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. DAMAGING WIND WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG THE
LINE...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF WW 143 WILL
MOVE INTO THE SRN PART OF THE WATCH ACROSS NWRN OK...WHERE THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY INTERCEPT THE DRYLINE.

STORMS WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF WW 143 BEFORE THE 03Z
EXPIRATION TIME...SO AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS.

..DEAN.. 05/12/2014

[venture]

Warning for NW OK


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
840 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HARPER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 840 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SHATTUCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO
MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAY AND CATESBY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

[Anonymous.]

Could form up with W OK convection and form up into a decent MCS.

[venture]

Cold front seems to be crashing south a bit faster now. NW OK is probably going to get completely filled in here soon.

[venture]

Big fire north of AMA. Cold front just went over it.

[venture]

Everything is going to start shifting to a more E to eventual ESE movement as the front is catching the storms in the NW.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
914 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HARPER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN WOODS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT


* AT 914 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MAY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.


HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.


SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

[venture]

For those interested, the chat is going and we'll be in there through the night if you want to drop in. Weather Spotlight - Live Chat Room for Weather Event Coverage

[venture]

New Watch for NC OK coming. NW OK is going to the SVR watch.

[venture]

New watch is massive...here are the OK counties.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONSOKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA ELLIS GARFIELD
GRANT HARPER KAY
WOODS WOODWARD

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHWEST IOWA
SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST KANSAS
EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI
EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1000 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF
FALLS CITY NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ENID OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 142...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 143. WATCH NUMBER
142 143 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1000 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW
144...WW 145...WW 146...

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND A SURGING COLD FRONT ARE
BEGINNING TO TRANSITION THE STORM MODE FROM DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO
MORE LINEAR STORMS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT PRIMARY RISKS OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT. IN THE SHORT TERM...A TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH LINGERING SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN CENTRAL KS
AND SW IA.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (5%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Low (20%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Mod (50%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (80%)