Oklahoma Weather Discussion - September/October 2013

[OKCisOK4me]

Yup, right now GFS makes that system look like a beast. But it will be more fine-tuned as we progress.

We need a good beast!

[Bunty]

[ou48A]

Yup, right now GFS makes that system look like a beast. But it will be more fine-tuned as we progress.

Thanks
I don't want any lighting delays in Norman next Saturday evening...
Hopefully the system moves past our area on Friday?

[ou48A]

We need a good beast!

We had enough beast this past May to last me a life time!

[venture]

Today's forecast seems to be going as planned, so no major changes. Rain tonight and tomorrow looks like a pretty general coverage of less than a half inch.





Going into next week, I've been hinting for the last several days at Thurs/Friday/Saturday next week as the time of the next good front and cool down. As others have mentioned, it could be of decent strength with a risk for some severe weather. GFS is holding by precip coverage, but the severe threat will be there...

[venture]

Longer Range Outlook with 12Z GFS shows severe weather season back in action for the Fall with a lot of wild swings in temps with each front. Some highlights...

[OKCisOK4me]

We had enough beast this past May to last me a life time!

As noted though...drought stats are on the increase again. Need to get those back down. ;-)

[Roger S]

As noted though...drought stats are on the increase again. Need to get those back down. ;-)

Yep.... My pond at Ardmore is about 10 feet low.... I'd like to gain at least 4 feet before we go into the winter months.

[venture]

Spotter Training still has openings for next week. If you weren't able to do it this year, I would strongly recommend it. This is the basic course but has a ton of good information in it. Everything is conducted online.

NWS Norman Spotter Training Opportunities

[ou48A]

As noted though...drought stats are on the increase again. Need to get those back down. ;-)

Good rain YES
Beast NO.

[silvergrove]

Spotter Training still has openings for next week. If you weren't able to do it this year, I would strongly recommend it. This is the basic course but has a ton of good information in it. Everything is conducted online.

NWS Norman Spotter Training Opportunities

What exactly is this? Is this free?

[venture]

What exactly is this? Is this free?

This class is the basic spotter training from the NWS Norman. It is free. The course goes over and reviews how to tell the difference between weather features, how to properly classify and report things, etc.

[Bunty]

A remarkably broad and heavy rain pattern has been making its way across Oklahoma as pictured this morning. Part of northwestern Oklahoma got it extra generous. If it continues without weakening much, there will hardly be any complainers in the state talking about being bypassed this time around.

[Roger S]

A remarkably broad and heavy rain pattern has been making its way across Oklahoma as pictured this morning. Part of northwestern Oklahoma got it extra generous. If it continues without weakening much, there will hardly be any complainers in the state talking about being bypassed this time around.

I'm not going to hold you to this.... Somehow it will manage to fizzle out right as it gets to Ardmore and then will ramp back up when it gets east of Ardmore.

[Bunty]

I'm not going to hold you to this.... Somehow it will manage to fizzle out right as it gets to Ardmore and then will ramp back up when it gets east of Ardmore.

Thanks, but give the weather some more time and you may get your inch. But I don't guarantee it.

[Easy180]

Anyone know how much we (OKC area) ended up with?

[Roger S]

Anyone know how much we (OKC area) ended up with?

Most of OKC received just under 1.5 inches according to Mesonet

[yukong]

Anyone know how much we (OKC area) ended up with?

We live out in Surrey Hills and we had 1 3/4 inches.

[SomeGuy]

SO I was watching the news and they said there was a risk for tornadoes on Friday, is this true?

[venture]

SO I was watching the news and they said there was a risk for tornadoes on Friday, is this true?

Possible. This is the current supercell composite for Friday evening per GFS.

[venture]

And since we are talking Friday...October 4th. This would be the 15th anniversary of the October 1998 Outbreak that produced 27 tornadoes - the most in the state in the month of October.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-19981004



Tornado Table for the
4 October 1998 Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak

October 4, 19998 Tornadoes by Intensity
F0	F1	F2	F3	F4	F5	Total
10	7	8	1	0	0	26

Event Tornado Number	Date	Time (CST)	Length of Path (miles)	width of Path (yards)	F-Scale	Killed	Injured	County	Location
1	10/04/1998	1425-1443	10	440	F2	0	0	Woods/ Alfalfa	11 SSW Dacoma - 4 NW Carmen
2	10/04/1998	1505	0.1	25	F0	0	0	Alfalfa	5 SW Cherokee
3	10/04/1998	1604	0.1	25	F0	0	0	Grant	5 W Medford
4	10/04/1998	1638-1641	1.5	25	F0	0	0	Blaine	8 SW - 6.5 SW Watonga
5	10/04/1998	1650-1712	12	200	F2	0	0	Blaine	3 SW - 9 ENE Watonga
6	10/04/1998	1714	0.3	50	F0	0	0	Comanche	5 N Medicine Park
7	10/04/1998	1728-1742	7	100	F1	0	0	Kingfisher	6 SW - 2 SE Dover
8	10/04/1998	1745	0.5	25	F0	0	0	Caddo	1 NE Cyril
9	10/04/1998	1747-1756	6	100	F1	0	0	Payne/ Noble	10 W - 6 NW Stillwater
10	10/04/1998	1754-1755	1.5	200	F2	0	0	Grady	9 WSW - 7.5 WSW Ninnekah
11	10/04/1998	1838-1839	0.4	125	F1	0	0	Pawnee	Pawnee
12	10/04/1998	1915-1921	5	100	F2	0	0	Grady/ McClain	4 NW Blanchard - 2 SSW Newcastle
13	10/04/1998	1926-1928	1.5	33	F0	0	0	McClain/ Cleveland	N Newcastle - SW OKC
14	10/04/1998	1934-1941	3	580	F2	0	0	Cleveland	Moore
15	10/04/1998	1956-1957	1	75	F0	0	0	Osage	1 SSW - 1 SSE Barnsdall
16	10/04/1998	2037-2040	3	580	F2	0	0	Lincoln	4 SE - 5 E Meeker
17	10/04/1998	2045-2052	6	580	F2	0	0	Lincoln	7 W - 4 NW Prague
18	10/04/1998	2050-2055	3	100	F1	0	0	Pottawatomie	NW Shawnee
19	10/04/1998	2052-2108	8	440	F1	0	6	Lincoln	6 NW - 7 NNE Prague
20	10/04/1998	2058-2100	2	100	F1	0	0	Pottawatomie	SE Shawnee
21	10/04/1998	2105-2116	8	50	F0	0	0	Nowata	2 NE Watovia - 10 ESE Nowata
22	10/04/1998	2108-2125	10	880	F3	0	1	Seminole/ Pottawatomie	5 WNW Little - Center View-3 SE Prague
23	10/04/1998	2119	0.5	50	F0	0	0	Tulsa	3 NW Collinsville
24	10/04/1998	2137-2208	27	1400	F2	0	4	Okfuskee/ Okmulgee	2 SE Boley - IXL - Haydenville - 3 SW Nuyaka
25	10/04/1998	2217-2218	1	100	F1	0	0	Okmulgee	2 E - 2 ENE Nuyaka
26	10/04/1998	2327	0.8	50	F0	0	0	Wagoner	1 SE Tullahassee

[ou48A]

KFOR CH 4 OKC & KWTV CH 9 are both calling for severe weather on Friday with the possibility of a few tornadoes in Oklahoma.

CH 4's Mike Morgan also said that tornadoes are possible if not likely on Friday.

[Anonymous.]

GFS slowing the system later this week.

[venture]

Threat is still there for Friday but it does appear the activity may be later in the day along the front as the cap might be too much early on. NAM really keeps activity buttoned down.

Major outbreak is not really likely, so the hype machines will just need to dial it back a bit. We'll see how the evening model runs do.

[SomeGuy]

Now they're saying a moderate risk for Friday with storms moving in to OKC around 6pm