March '10 Weather Discussion

[venture]

Yeah this is still 2 weeks out, but it falls in the time frame for the new month. Long range models are only meant to give guidance at what could happen, none of this is in stone by any means.

March 3rd - Apparent strong storm system will move into the southern plains early in the day. Temps will rise to around 60 from I-40 south, but will struggle to get above 40 north. As it stands, it spells out a wide spectrum of weather across the state. Through the afternoon, instabilities will rise in Central and Southern OK and they are forecast to be favorable for some severe weather. Northern OK however, could see a mix of rain/snow with some accumulating snow possible the farther north in the state you go. As the storm system pulls out over night, Central sections may see a brief change over before the precip ends.

[OKCisOK4me]

"Central sections may see a brief change over before the precip ends"

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ooooo!!!

[westsidesooner]

For those of you who are tired of winter....heres a few climatological facts for OKC for the month of March. Spring is almost here

March 1st.....Nml High: 58°F...Nml Low: 35°F

Sunrise: 7:00am.....Sunset: 6:25pm
length of daylight: 11h 25m 35s

Daylight savings time begins Monday March 14th


March 31st.....Nml High: 67°F......Nml Low: 44°F

Sunrise: 7:18am......Sunset:7:51pm
length of daylight: 12h 32m 47s



Keep in mind that March typically can produce some of the heaviest snow in OKC....with over 20" in 1924.

[USG '60]

I seem to remember some whoppers in April, too.

[OKCisOK4me]

There's something about that graph and what the downtown skyline will look like when the tower is completed. Lots of birds....

[venture]

There's something about that graph and what the downtown skyline will look like when the tower is completed. Lots of birds....

My thoughts exactly. Kinda of a message from Mother Nature to us when spring rolls around.

[BrettL]

Is there a glimmer of hope around March 7? Moisture return, warm temps...

We chasers are getting very antsy.

[westsidesooner]

Is there a glimmer of hope around March 7? Moisture return, warm temps...

We chasers are getting very antsy.

Are we getting SDS? ......Glad I'm not the only one........

The guys on ST are thinking something might get interesting around the 9th. Spring can't get here fast enough for me.

[venture]

March 7th - Chance of storms in the afternoon/evening. Potential severe weather day as instabilities are going to be sufficient for early spring-like storms. CAPE values projected around 1000 j/kg in far western OK, with LI around -4 to -5 in the same area. There will be some instability back to the I-35 corridor. Forecast sounding doesn't shout anything major, but just like winter weather - you can't predict these things totally accurate this far out. Just highlighting potential.

March 9th - Chance of rain/snow mix across Northern half of OK. Nothing major.

March 14th - Another system drops down with widespread light to moderate rain.

Other than that, not much else going on. Can't really pin point many stormy days this far out, but this is meant to give an idea.

[westsidesooner]

This isn't March specific, but I thought it was interesting and it ties into something I've been wondering about for this spring. There were NO torenadoes reported in the U.S. in February for the first time since 1950.

No tornadoes in February 2010 - NOAA Weather Partners

I was wondering if the current el nino pattern would delay the start....or push back the crest of this years severe weather season. It seems with a cool wet pattern it'll be hard to get the heat needed...I was thinking things might get really interesting later in the season though and late May and June could be the most intense.

Venture, any idea on how long the el nino is expected to last, and how it effects our spring storm season here in Oklahoma? I can remember a few years ago when the spring was a dud, but June was very active...sorry I dont remember the year.

Also, how might the Arctic Oscillation play into the severe weather season?

[BrettL]

The 7th/8th sure might be our first chase of the season. The GFS has been slowing down now more in line with the European model suggesting some severe weather close by. It all depends on the timing of the moisture return and where the dryline and upper storm system setup... but it COULD be good one. Actually looks very similar to March 7, 2009, where we saw our first tube of the year up in KS.

[venture]

Long term outlook...accuracy of course won't be the best. Winter weather seems to be gone and we are transitioning into a spring time weather step. Nothing really screams severe weather, but this is the time of year where dynamics are pretty strong and can offset lower amounts of heat and instability. The first risk of storms in coming up in a few days, but things aren't showing up that would single any elevated risk of severe weather. It's Oklahoma. It's almost Spring. I won't be shocked if on one of the days below we get our first tornado of the year. Just how things tend to work. :-P The big thing we can see here, temps are moderating some, but still will stay cool.

Fri Mar 5th - Highs Mid 50s. Dry.

Sat Mar 6th - Highs Mid 50s. Dry.

Sun Mar 7th - Highs Upper 40s to Mid 50s. Moderate Rain, up to half inch.

Mon Mar 8th - Highs Low 50s to Low 60s. Moderate to Heavy Rain with Thunderstorms up to another half inch of rain. Low risk of severe weather.

Tue Mar 9th - Highs Upper 40s to Low 50s. Dry.

Wed Mar 10th - Highs 50s. Dry except some light rain after dark.

Thu Mar 11th - Highs Mid 50s. Light rain early, then drying out.

Fri Mar 12th - Highs Mid 50s. Isolated showers, maybe a storm later.

Sat Mar 13th - Highs Mid 50s. Showers and thunderstorms, low risk of severe weather.

Sun Mar 14th - Highs Upper 40s to Mid 60s. Showers and maybe a thunderstorm (especially SW). Very light amounts.

Mon Mar 15th - Highs Upper 40s NW to Low 70s SE.

Tue Mar 16th - Highs Mid 40s.

Wed Mar 17th - Highs Upper 40s to Low 50s.

Thu Mar 18th - Highs Mid 40s. Light showers mainly west.

Fri Mar 19th - Highs Upper 40s to Upper 50s. Isolated thunderstorms, low risk of severe weather.

[venture]

Day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1113 am cst sun mar 07 2010

valid 081200z - 091200z

...no svr tstm areas forecast...

...synopsis...

An already powerful mid and upper-level low initially centered over
the srn rockies will intensify further while translating newd into
the cntrl plains by tuesday morning. This system will be
accompanied by a 70-80 kt midlevel jet streak and a corridor of
12-hr height falls of 100-150 m which will overspread the srn plains
through the period.

At the surface...an elongated low pressure area initially over the
cntrl and srn high plains will consolidate into a deepening cyclone
over the tx/ok pnhdls monday prior to occluding and slowly filling
over the same general area during the latter half of the forecast
period. Pacific front associated with this system will push
ewd/newd through wrn into cntrl parts of ok and tx...while a warm
front lifts more slowly nwd through cntrl and ern parts of tx.

Latest model guidance suggests that the greatest potential for a few
severe storms will be confined to a couple of areas: One near the
occluding surface cyclone over the srn high plains...and the other
nearer to the system warm sector over parts of cntrl/srn tx.

...ok/tx pnhdls...swrn ks...wrn ok...

Clusters of mainly elevated tstms are expected to spread newd
through region early in the day in association with the leading edge
of stronger height falls attendant to upper system. Forecast
soundings suggest that elevated convective instability will remain
marginal which should limit the potential for an organized severe
hail threat.

By afternoon...a series of low-topped storms are likely to develop
from vicinity of occluding surface low sewd along pacific/occluded
front within a thermodynamic environment characterized by marginal
boundary layer moisture /dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s/ but steep
lapse rates. Deep-layer vertical shear will be decreasing with time
owing to approach of midlevel low...but low-level wind profile will
exhibit modest veering e of surface front. The primary hazard
associated with these diurnal storms will be hail /some that may
approach severe criteria/...though a brief tornado is also possible
near surface low where ambient vertical vorticity is maximized.

...cntrl ok into cntrl/srn tx...

Here too...clusters of elevated tstms will be possible early in the
day in conjunction with strengthening waa along 40-50 kt llj axis.
The majority of this activity will likely be located to the n of
surface warm front within a marginally unstable environment. With
time...regenerative storm development is expected to build
progressively swd/swwd...eventually becoming rooted in
moistening/destabilizing warm sector over parts of cntrl/srn tx.
Farther n along pacific/occluded front... Isolated...surface-based
storms will be possible from cntrl ok into n-cntrl tx monday
afternoon into monday night.

The highest boundary layer moisture content /i.e. Dewpoints in the
60s/ will remain confined to along and s of warm front over
cntrl/srn tx. However...lapse rates will be weaker than locations
to the n/nw...limiting mlcape to generally less than 1000 j/kg.
Midlevel wind field will strengthen through the day to the s/se of
parent circulation /i.e. Generally s of the red river/...resulting
in increasingly long hodographs. However...stronger low-level shear
associated with llj axis will remain largely displaced to the ne/e
of primary instability axis through the forecast period. The net
result is rather long...straight hodographs...supportive of
organized/rotating storms capable of mainly hail and damaging
winds.

The marginal instability remains the primary factor limiting a more
robust severe weather threat. Therefore...low severe weather
probabilities will be maintained in this forecast. An upgrade to
slight risk may become necessary in subsequent day one outlooks once
finer-scale details in the moisture/instability field become more
clear.

..mead.. 03/07/2010

[Thunder]

Transition day.

[venture]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST SUN MAR 07 2010

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH
WILL PERSIST...DESPITE BEING PRESSED EWD WITH TIME AS AN UPPER LOW
SHIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE SWRN U.S. TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN THE
MEAN TIME...ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS
THE W COAST STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
ERN CO/WRN KS/THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW EJECTS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
FEATURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL FORECAST TO
EVOLVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS/SWRN KS INTO WRN N TX...
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE/SPREAD NEWD ACROSS OK/KS AND
VICINITY THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON FARTHER W...AS A DRY SLOT SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY MODEST LOW-TOPPED INSTABILITY
WILL EVOLVE GIVEN MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WITH
COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...THIS MAY SUPPORT A
FEW MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS WITH STRONGER CELLS NEAR PEAK HEATING.


..GOSS/GARNER.. 03/08/2010

[venture]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST MON MAR 08 2010

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF WRN OK INTO NWRN TX...

...SRN PLAINS...

IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGH INTO CA...UPPER LOW NRN NM WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING NEWD INTO CENTRAL KS BY 12Z TUE. EXAMINING MORNING
SOUNDINGS SAMPLING THE RETURNING GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS COUPLED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING NM TROUGH AND MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH...AIR MASS IS
BECOMING SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN THE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CURRENTLY FROM TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK SWD
TO SWRN TX WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP NEWD THRU THE AFTERNOON. WITH
LIMITED SURFACE HEATING...STORMS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE RAPID CHANGES
TAKING PLACE AT MID LEVELS AS COOLING SPREADS EWD ACROSS TX
PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MUCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO 1000 J/KG WHICH COUPLED WITH THE
COLD/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT HAIL IN THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS.

IN ADDITION BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE STORM INITIATION WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN OK INTO NWRN TX JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THE RAPID MID LEVEL DRYING THAT WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS
THE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE WARRANTED GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.

ANY SURFACE BASED STORM THAT INITIATES DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD BE
A LARGE HAIL THREAT GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 50-60KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX.

THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED SWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO NWRN
TX...PRIMARILY FOR THE HAIL THREAT...HOWEVER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING
WINDS.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CST MON MAR 08 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX AND SW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081808Z - 081945Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND SW OK. A THREAT FOR
WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
LINE-SEGMENTS.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY FROM EAST OF CHILDRESS SWD TO NEAR
ABILENE IS LOCATED ALONG A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS MEASURING SBCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE
STORMS ARE ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND
JUST AHEAD OF A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE LINE OF STORMS EWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MCD AREA SHOW 850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE MORE
INTENSE CELLS. IN ADDITION...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND
LOW-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH BOWING-LINE SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 03/08/2010


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 PM CST MON MAR 08 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK INTO SW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082246Z - 090045Z

IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE REQUIRED...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT.

THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND STRONG
MID-LEVEL COOLING IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION ALONG A DRY
LINE TRAILING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST TEXAS. DEEPENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY AS INHIBITION WEAKENS
AND CAPE PEAKS IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. IN THE PRESENCE OF
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY NOT BE NEGLIGIBLE...DUE TO FAVORABLE AMBIENT VORTICITY
NEAR THE CYCLONE...AND THE PRESENCE OF RATHER LARGE CYCLONICALLY
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF...BEFORE DIURNAL SURFACE COOLING STABILIZES
CONDITIONS DURING THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 03/08/2010


ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

[Thunder]

Yes, we had a long-track tornado yesterday.

[Dustin]

Damn... Here we go!

[venture]

Meant to link this yesterday, but sick as a dog right now. Reports from StormTrack.

3/08/10 REPORTS: OK - Stormtrack

[venture]

Mix of things tomorrow.

[venture]

Severe Weather threat today ahead of the dryline and warm front. Evening model runs indicated the activity should be north of I-40, except in far eastern OK. Highest risk appears to be east in Arkansas, but conditions may be favorable for a spin up or two in North Central and Eastern OK.







DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST TUE MAR 09 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD/NEWD WITH
TIME THIS PERIOD...AS A SECOND MOVES QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF CA/NV
ACROSS AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED INVOF ERN NM -- S AND W OF
THE INITIAL LOW WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING NEWD TOWARD MO/IA -- AS THE
SECOND UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MS
VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SYSTEM...WITH STORMS ALSO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND VICINITY AS THE SECOND SYSTEM
CROSSES THIS REGION. FINALLY...CONVECTION MAY ALSO AFFECT COASTAL
PARTS OF THE PAC NW...AS A SHARP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE.

...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF LA/AR/MS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUES ON
LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW. AREA POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM VARIOUS
MODELS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND EVEN TORNADO POTENTIAL.


HAVING SAID THAT...POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY
REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...INITIALLY OVER THE KS/OK
VICINITY...IS ALSO PROGGED TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...MOVING NEWD INTO NRN MO/SRN IA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TRAILING SWD...A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED TROUGH/FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
EWD INTO WRN AR/ERN TX THROUGH THE DAY...LARGELY WASHING OUT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE PARENT LOW SHIFTS NEWD. THE
LATEST HI-RES WRF RUN -- LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS
-- DOES NOT INITIATE APPRECIABLE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION AFTER
EARLIER/WARM ADVECTION-TYPE CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD/NEWD AWAY FROM THE
AREA. WHILE NAM/GFS RUNS DO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION...AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LIGHT -- WHICH HINTS AT ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES...AS THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR/DEGREE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A CONCERN. IF GREATER DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEP/SUSTAINED CONVECTION OCCURS THAN WHAT IS FORECAST...THE
KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK.

[blangtang]

why are they SHOUTING the forecast?!?!

[PennyQuilts]

why are they SHOUTING the forecast?!?!

They always do that. I used to work for NOAA and had to review documents that contained forecasts. The caps gave me a headache and I found them much more difficult to read.