General Weather Discussion - August 2014

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[venture]

Thanks Lj for catching up on my horrible date keeping skills and getting this going.

[kevinpate]

Isn't it about two weeks too early for really heavy rains?

[kevinpate]

I hope the stretch between Hollis/Frederick on up to Alva area got a few good bucket loads.

[Anonymous.]

NAM brings our next rain action in Thursdayish. GFS makes it happen on Friday.

[Anonymous.]

Few storms going up in TX PH. These may try and develop along weak front draped across OK. Low chances, low area coverage. Consider yourself lucky if you get rain tonight.

[Anonymous.]

OKC just missed out on the rain this morning/last night. Just E and S of OKC had some rain.


Looks like late tonight there is a chance of a storm cluster moving in from TX PH into NW OK, eventually dying out - but maybe making it to C OK.

Same thing again for Friday night and possibly Saturday evening.


Timing will be hard to forecast, as these will be nowcast situations when/where storms fire and ride along boundaries.

[venture]

Had a decent downpour here for about 5 minutes and that was it. At least it was something!

[Anonymous.]

SPC adding SLIGHT risk for severe storm that develop later today, in SE CO and SW KS. This [eventual] storm complex has a chance to make it into OK overnight - althought likely non-severe at that point.

[educator1953]

I just heard Emily Sutton (KFOR) say Stillwater is about to get some heavy rain. Hope it happens since it seems Stillwater gets missed a lot when the rains do come!

Wish we'd get some down here in Duncan.

[venture]

Looks like the Stillwater area won out today so far. Up to 1.82". Isolated/scattered showers and storms through the rest of the day, mainly in Northern OK appears to the story for today. More isolated stuff for the rest of the state. If you get something, enjoy it.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1524
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...TEXAS
PANHANDLE...TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 082153Z - 090030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...TOWERING CUMULUS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE ALONG A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY THAT
ARCS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SEWD INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF N TX.
ASCENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AIDED BY DEEP MIXING/PBL CIRCULATIONS
IN THE HOT AIR W OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL SUPPORT FURTHER STORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS TO MID/UPPER-LEVEL SWLYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
WEAK IMPULSES STREAMING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION ARE FOSTERING
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS -- ESPECIALLY
E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WHERE BACKED/ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
PRESENT. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE AMA VWP...WHICH INDICATES AROUND
35 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR. ONE OR TWO FORWARD-PROPAGATING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE FROM THE ONGOING ACTIVITY AND
SPREAD EWD/NEWD INTO WRN OK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SUCH
POTENTIAL WOULD BE ENCOURAGED BY LOW-LEVEL ELY/S ENHANCING INFLOW
AMIDST MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG E OF THE BOUNDARY.

ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SPORADIC INSTANCES OF
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A DEARTH OF DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE ABSENCE OF A MORE
SALIENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATION. AND...WITH GENERALLY MODEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK IS NOT PRESENTLY
EXPECTED...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 08/08/2014

[venture]

Isolated storms continue to pop up. Here in Central OK one lone cell over West Norman moving ENE.

[catch22]

Holy cow. These storms are blowing up. Exponential growth in the past few scans.

[PennyQuilts]

It feels horrible, out there. Do I need to roll up my van windows? (Far SW OKC).

ETA - got deep rolling thunder so I went ahead and made an executive decision. Clouds were blowing up over the house in the ten minutes since I'd been outside.

[silvergrove]

Nice little outflow from these storms.

[OKCisOK4me]

Nice little outflow from these storms.

Is the $9.99 worth it?

[venture]

Is the $9.99 worth it?

For that radar app, yes.

[silvergrove]

For that radar app, yes.

Which app do you prefer? The PYKL3 or Radarscope?

[venture]

Which app do you prefer? The PYKL3 or Radarscope?

I went with PYKL3...they are almost identical, so you can't really go wrong with either.

[silvergrove]

Small hail at my location.

[PennyQuilts]

"Just like that" a cool easterly wind coming from that cell started hitting us and it went from sultry and miserable to relatively cool and breezy. It has been awhile since I've seen something explode so fast.

[silvergrove]

It was for me!

Though I would have gotten the other $10 app if I had known at the time that a friend works for them. Radarscope I think. They're both good.

[OKCisOK4me]

WunderMap is cool but pretty generic... then again, it's free.

[catch22]

I use Radarscope.