2014 Tropical Weather Discussion

[venture]

2014 Hurricane Season Discussion Thread

Atlantic Storm Names	Hurr Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
Eastern Pacific Storm Names	Hurr Amanda, TS Boris, Hurr Cristina, TS Douglas, TS Elida, Fausto, Genevieve, Hernan, Iselle, Julio, Karina, Lowell, Marie, Norbert, Odile, Polo, Rachel, Simon, Trudy, Vance, Winnie, Xavier, Yolanda, Zeke
Central Pacific Storm Names	Aka, Ekeka, Hene, Iolana, Keoni, Lino, Mele, Nona, Oliwa, Pama, Upana, Wene

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Current Conditions

Eastern Pacific Activity	Atlantic Basic Activity	Atlantic & East Pac SSTs and Active Systems	Potential for Tropical Formation Next 48 Hours

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Weather Information

Atlantic Visible Satellite	Atlantic Water Vapor

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Western Gulf Coast	Central Gulf Coast	Eastern Gulf Coast

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References

• COD Weather Analysis Page: COD Meteorology -- Analysis Data
• Spaghetti Models Forecast Page: Hurricane Spaghetti Models / Spaghetti Charts / Tropical Forecast / Hurricane Charts Models / Tropical Update
• Florida State Model Page: Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields
• Penn State Model Page: e-WALL : PSU ELECTRONIC MAP WALL
• Storm Prediction Center: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center
• TwisterData Model Page: TwisterData.com | Weather Data & Model Forecasts
• Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: Earl Barker's CENTRAL US Model Page
• NSSL WRF Model: NSSL Realtime WRF model Forecasts
• NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: NSSL 4km WRF Forecast Soundings
• HRRR Rapid Refresh Model: HRRR Model Fields - Experimental
• ECMWF Euro Model: Mean sea level pressure, wind speed at 850 hPa and geopotential 500 hPa, temperature at 850 hPa

[venture]

Yes it is really early for this, but PluPan jinxed it. Chance of development still low, but passing this on...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN INTENSE COLD-CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 23N42W
WITH ESTIMATED MSLP OF 1010 MB HAS GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
35N28W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ANOTHER 12-18
HOURS N OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN BANDS THAT WRAP AROUND
THE CENTER FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W...AND FROM 23N TO
30N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[Plutonic Panda]

Well, I just didn't want to start a new thread in the weather category(since it is yours) and I do not know how to post those live maps and such on here.

I wonder if we are going to have an active tropical season this year... I don't know why, I just feel that we are.

[venture]

Amanda is the first hurricane of the 2014 season on the Eastern Pacific side.



HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014

An eye has been observed sporadically in infrared satellite imagery
during the past few hours, and recent microwave data has also
revealed a small pinhole eye in the 85-GHz channel and a 12-15 n mi
eye in TRMM radar data. Satellite classifications are still rising,
and Amanda is being initialized as a 65-kt hurricane based on Dvorak
estimates of T4.0 from SAB and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Amanda is
intensifying rapidly, strengthening by 35 kt over the past 24 hours.

Amanda is located over very warm water and in an environment of
light vertical wind shear, and all indications are that this period
of rapid intensification is likely to continue. The operational
SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index (RII) is indicating a 60 percent
chance of a 40-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours,
which is almost 15 times higher than normal. An experimental Joint
Hurricane Testbed version of the RII product, which includes
additional environmental variables, is showing even higher chances
of rapid intensification. Based on this guidance, Amanda is
forecast to continue strengthening rapidly, potentially reaching the
threshold for major hurricane in about 24-36 hours. After 48
hours, southerly vertical shear is expected to increase, which is
likely to cause Amanda's low- and mid-level circulations to
decouple. Therefore, fast weakening is indicated toward the end of
the forecast period. The updated NHC forecast is higher than the
previous one during the first 48 hours to account for the high
likelihood of continued rapid intensification, but it is largely
unchanged thereafter.

Amanda continues on its slow west-northwestward trek, and the
initial motion is estimated to be 290/4 kt. A mid-level ridge
centered over Mexico should begin weakening soon, which will cause
the hurricane's forward motion to slow even further during the next
24 hours. In about 2 days, the mid-level ridge is forecast to
restrengthen over the western Gulf of Mexico while a mid-level
trough amplifies near 130W. This pattern change should push Amanda
northward between days 3 and 5, but the speed is still likely to be
fairly slow. The GFS and ECMWF models are located on the right side
of the guidance envelope on this forecast cycle, and the NHC
forecast has therefore been shifted a bit to the right as well,
especially beyond 36 hours. This track is also to the right of the
model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 11.4N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 11.6N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 11.9N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 12.4N 111.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 13.1N 111.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 15.0N 111.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[venture]

GFS continues to indicate a tropical low will form off the northern Yucatan coast next Thursday moving into the Northern Gulf coast by the following Monday.

[venture]

I've touched on the GFS indicating something in the Gulf developing and NHC is mentioning it in the first discussion for the year...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated and nearly stationary area of low pressure located over
the Bay of Campeche extends northeastward into the south-central
Gulf of Mexico. Although shower activity is currently disorganized,
some slow development of this disturbance is possible this week as
environmental conditions become marginally conducive.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
respectively.

The list of names for 2014 is as follows:

Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Arthur AR-thur Laura LOOR-ruh
Bertha BUR-thuh Marco MAR-koe
Cristobal krees-TOH-bahl Nana NA-na
Dolly DAH-lee Omar OH-mar
Edouard eh-DWARD Paulette pawl-LET
Fay fay Rene re-NAY
Gonzalo gohn-SAH-loh Sally SAL-ee
Hanna HAN-uh Teddy TEHD-ee
Isaias ees-ah-EE-ahs Vicky VIH-kee
Josephine JOH-seh-feen Wilfred WILL-fred
Kyle KY-ull

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT. After
the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are
1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled
issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical
Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS
headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the Tropical Cyclone
Public Advisory, the Forecast/Advisory, the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion, and the Wind Speed Probabilities, is issued every six
hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a Special
Advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of
significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings.

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a special advisory package. The Tropical
Cyclone Update is also used to provide a continuous flow of
information regarding the center location of a tropical cyclone
when watches or warnings are in effect and the center can be easily
tracked with land-based radar. Tropical Cyclone Updates,
which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header
WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.

All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are
available on the web at National Hurricane Center. You can also
interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.
Notifications are available via Twitter when select National
Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our
Atlantic Twitter feed is available at
NHC on Twitter.

Forecaster Kimberlain

[venture]

Update on the possible development in the Southern Gulf / Bay of Campeche

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...LOW...20 PERCENT

[Easy180]

Heading to Panama City on the 20th. Do I start paying closer attention around the 10th?

[venture]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A stationary low pressure system located over the southern Bay of
Campeche is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers over
most of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas
of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite data
indicate winds to near gale force are likely occurring to the
northeast and east of the center, and some development of this
system is still possible over the next day or two while the low
drifts generally northwestward toward eastern Mexico. This
disturbance will continue to produce extremely heavy rains, along
with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over portions of
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[venture]

Up to 50% now...


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
area over the southwestern Bay of Campeche has changed little in
organization overnight. Although upper-level winds are expected to
remain unfavorable for significant development, an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is still scheduled to investigate this
system this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this disturbance could produce heavy rains, along with
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over portions of
southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain

[venture]

Next chance on the GFS for a Gulf system...This is waaaayyy out there, so this system may not even exist. However, it does have a landfall system in South Texas.

[venture]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad low pressure area located about 120 miles southeast of the
coast of South Carolina continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to remain conducive for gradual development of this system while
it drifts southward offshore of Georgia and northeastern Florida
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[Dennis Heaton]

My two youngins and I went through Hugo back in Sep. 1989, while stationed at Shaw AFB, SC. Don't ever wanna go through something like that again! But, I gotta say...the bbq grilled pizza, that following morning, was excellent (lost power for a week and had to cook off a lot of food and put in the ice chest).

[soonerguru]

Heading to Yucutan on Friday. Any chance this system could intervene?

[venture]

Heading to Yucutan on Friday. Any chance this system could intervene?

It'll have to move SW back over Florida and probably Cuba as well for that to happen - so I wouldn't worry.

[venture]

Forecast models coming together on a pretty common track and strength forecast for Invest 91. The low will continue to drift tot the South and eventually Southwest. It'll probably make landfall or get very close to it in Central Florida and then start moving up the coast. Models get this up to Tropical Storm strength as it moves off the coast near Georgia and makes landfall again somewhere in Carolinas.

[venture]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...corrected
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

corrected tropical depression development status

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located about 230 miles east of St. Augustine,
Florida, is gradually becoming better defined as it moves slowly
southward to southwestward. Although upper-level winds are only
marginally favorable, a tropical depression is expected to form
during the next day or two. However, the system's proximity to dry
air could inhibit significant development until environmental
conditions become more conducive by late Tuesday while the low
meanders offshore of the Florida east coast. The Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft that was scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon has been canceled, and the flight has
been rescheduled for Monday morning, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Plutonic Panda]

Is this looking like it could be an active season?

[ljbab728]

Is this looking like it could be an active season?

No, but predictions have been known to be wrong.

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season

[Just the facts]

Perfect timing. We're going to the Coke Zero 400 Saturday so hopefully this will suck all the moisture out of the region.

[Dennis Heaton]

Perfect timing. We're going to the Coke Zero 400 Saturday so hopefully this will suck all the moisture out of the region.

I wanna go!!!!!

[venture]

Strength forecast for Invest 91

[venture]

Advisories have begun for TD 1.

[venture]

TD 1 Upgraded to Arthur, now forecast to become a hurricane by the time it hits the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

Radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective
organization of the cyclone has improved since the previous
advisory, and the cyclone is being upgraded based on a sustained
wind report of 33 kt from Settlement Point (SPGF1) on Grand Bahama
Island earlier this morning that was outside of the deep convection.

After remaining nearly stationary earlier this morning, Arthur
appears to to be drifting northwestward now with an uncertain motion
of 315/02 kt. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the
previous forecast track. The latest model guidance has continued the
trend of a pronounced mid-tropospheric trough digging southeastward
from the upper-midwest into the northeastern and mid-Atlantic region
of the United States by 72 hours. The 500 mb flow pattern is almost
identical in the GFS and ECMWF models, which increases the
confidence in this evolving pattern. As a result, a steady increase
in southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States
is expected to gradually turn the tropical cyclone northward over
the next 24-36 hours, and then accelerate the system faster toward
the northeast on Thursday and Friday. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is
forecast to move over the far north Atlantic as an extratropical
cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed
guidance envelope close to the consensus model TVCA.

Northwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast by the models to
gradually subside over the next 48 hours, which should allow the
cyclone to develop its own upper-level outflow pattern. In fact,
latest visible and water vapor imagery indicates that cirrus
outflow has been expanding on the north side of the system during
the past few hours, suggesting that the shear conditions could
already be subsiding. The low shear conditions and warm
sea-surface temperatures should allow for at least steady
strengthening, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane by
72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus IVCN through 36 hours, and then
slightly higher after that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 27.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 28.7N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 29.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 31.2N 78.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 35.4N 75.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 40.8N 67.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 45.5N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[venture]

Arthur has already developed an eye today. Looks really good on visible imagery. Hurricane Watches up for NC.