Here's the problem I have with nuclear...
I'm not an expert on the subject obviously so much of this is just conjecture on my part but...
Just about every spot in the world is "due" for something. A large earthquake, volcano eruption, massive hurricane, asteroid impact, Lost reruns, whatever... This world we live on is beautiful no doubt, but it is incredibly violent. Now some parts of the world are certainly more prone to these areas than others, no doubt. I get that. But it is only going to take one of these events to really screw you up if you near a reactor. In fact, screw everyone one up for a long ways away.
My concern is that we have a hard time remembering catastrophes just a couple hundred years ago. Catastrophes that are very cyclical. It seems like a big risk to me to be near one because if one of these 'once in every 1000 year' events occurs, you're pretty much guaranteed to be hosed. Which is what we saw in Japan really. A minimal risk given the known probabilities but even small probabilities eventually come true. So why take the risk?
30 years ago, it would have been harder to make that case but today, solar and wind are catching up like crazy in efficiency.
The cost alone per kwh to manufacture nuclear energy has gone up 50% as well. Indicating that it is quickly becoming an expensive proposition. Likely due to mitigations necessary as a result of other accidents, like in Japan, and terrorist threats.
Moore's Law will play a convenient factor with solar. I fully expect 3-5 cents per kwh within a generation. It is innovating rapidly. Wind is already competitive with coal, but not NG yet.
Germany and other nations are gladly paving the way for us as well. Showing us how to do it and what they real-world returns are.
So I just don't see the point yet. It isn't cheap anymore and if we are honest with ourselves, it isn't worth the risk.
There is progress in fusion technology and so I'm not going to sit here and say that fusion or fission can't play a role in the future. I just wouldn't support the public policy for it today given what I personally know.
Bookmarks